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TQQQ Positional 1

Stocks · Started Feb 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-23.9%
Max Drawdown
34.5%
Trades
33
Win Trades
33.3%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
8.9%

About this strategy

A positional strategy that trades TQQQ trying to capture the longer term momentum in Nasdaq on the long side

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-6.216.3-10.411.3-21.529.9-10.1-0.12.0-1.4-21.4-21.1
20230.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/15/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age56 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades33
# Profitable11
% Profitable33.3%
Avg trade duration2.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown34.5%
drawdown periodAug 04, 2022 - Dec 23, 2022
Cumul. Return-21.1%
Avg win$3,208
Avg loss$2,060

Ratios

W:L ratio0.78
Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Sortino Ratio-0.48
Calmar Ratio-0.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.27
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life73.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-7.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-23.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity51.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss53.5%
Chance of 40% account loss10.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)459
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,060
Avg Win$3,208
# Winners11
Sum Trade PL (losers)$45,309
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,284
Num Months Winners5
# Losers22
% Winners33.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct226

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table56

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4079.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)67.99
Avg Trade Length2.80
Last Trade Ago1374

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.89
Daily leverage (max)3.12

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.24
Treynor Index-0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.07
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.14
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.43
df9
t-0.43
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio-0.71
Upside Potential Ratio1.49
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms7
N of observations10
Mean of predictor-0.18
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.05
r0.74
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error8
t(b)3.14
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.18
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df9
t-0.56
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio-0.86
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms7
N of observations10
Mean of predictor-0.21
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.05
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error8
t(b)2.99
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean-0.23
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.70
df222
t-0.65
p0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio-1.00
Upside Potential Ratio6.32
Upside part of mean1.49
Downside part of mean-1.72
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms168
N of observations223
Mean of predictor-0.17
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.04
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error221
t(b)6.97
p(b)0
t(a)-0.41
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.29
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.87
df222
t-0.80
p0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio-1.21
Upside Potential Ratio6.07
Upside part of mean1.46
Downside part of mean-1.75
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms168
N of observations223
Mean of predictor-0.21
Mean of criterion-0.29
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.04
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error221
t(b)6.98
p(b)0
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.22
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df130
t-0.46
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio-0.91
Upside Potential Ratio6.61
Upside part of mean1.60
Downside part of mean-1.82
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms96
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.03
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)5.51
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
Mean-0.28
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.82
df130
t-0.58
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio6.37
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms96
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.03
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)5.54
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.44
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.96
Median0.98
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 30.99
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-62.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations223
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low40
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.15
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.24
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-328144160
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)141
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.82
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.40
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.66
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.12

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AAPL short61Dec 23, 2022Dec 23, 2022($10)
TQQQ long2311Dec 21, 2022Dec 22, 2022($4,026)
TQQQ long2029Dec 14, 2022Dec 14, 2022($2,237)
TQQQ long2218Dec 8, 2022Dec 12, 2022($1,092)
TQQQ long2091Dec 2, 2022Dec 5, 2022($1,657)
TQQQ long2150Nov 30, 2022Dec 2, 2022($285)
TQQQ long2263Nov 22, 2022Nov 28, 2022$63
TQQQ long2164Nov 10, 2022Nov 15, 2022$4,366
TQQQ long2468Nov 7, 2022Nov 8, 2022($696)
TQQQ long2461Nov 2, 2022Nov 2, 2022($5,813)
TQQQ long2451Oct 28, 2022Oct 31, 2022($961)
TQQQ long2455Oct 24, 2022Oct 26, 2022($275)
TQQQ long2548Oct 21, 2022Oct 24, 2022$2,263
TQQQ long1580Aug 25, 2022Aug 26, 2022($3,291)
TQQQ long1502Aug 18, 2022Aug 19, 2022($3,339)
TQQQ long1528Aug 12, 2022Aug 17, 2022$148
TQQQ long1579Aug 10, 2022Aug 11, 2022($510)
TQQQ long1672Jul 27, 2022Aug 5, 2022$7,569
TQQQ long1681Jul 19, 2022Jul 22, 2022$2,836
TQQQ long1786Jul 14, 2022Jul 18, 2022$1,299
TQQQ long1735Jul 5, 2022Jul 11, 2022$2,545
TQQQ long1649Jun 24, 2022Jun 28, 2022($2,297)
TQQQ long2026Jun 15, 2022Jun 16, 2022($6,508)
TQQQ long1608Jun 7, 2022Jun 9, 2022($1,243)
TQQQ long1656Jun 1, 2022Jun 3, 2022($320)
TQQQ long1655May 25, 2022Jun 1, 2022$6,450
TQQQ long1518May 17, 2022May 18, 2022($2,191)
TQQQ long1024Apr 19, 2022Apr 20, 2022($978)
TQQQ long1044Apr 13, 2022Apr 14, 2022($1,957)
TQQQ long899Apr 4, 2022Apr 5, 2022($2,684)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.