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Positional Long Short

Futures · Started Apr 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
28.4%
Max Drawdown
46.5%
Trades
349
Win Trades
25.8%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
51.6%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

Trades MNQs long and short. Model account trades 1 MNQ per USD10k. Scale accordingly or set your max position size according to your desired risk appetite

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-7.212.715.1-0.813.1-10.0-21.4-5.418.16.8
2025-12.97.4-6.210.97.14.97.3-8.216.5-8.311.6-13.511.2
202623.29.5-2.353.414.7-7.6-17.58.4-7.6-9.460.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/4/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age31 months
C2 Rank429
What it tradesFutures
# Trades349
# Profitable90
% Profitable25.8%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.5%
drawdown periodAug 22, 2024 - March 20, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)28.4%
Avg win$3,615
Avg loss$1,082

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio0.60
Sortino Ratio0.90
Calmar Ratio0.74

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life50.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)40.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)28.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)32.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss70.5%
Chance of 20% account loss47.0%
Chance of 30% account loss26.0%
Chance of 40% account loss10.5%
Chance of 50% account loss4.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)893
C2 Score429
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)742

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,082
Avg Win$3,613
# Winners90
Sum Trade PL (losers)$280,132
Sum Trade PL (winners)$325,142
Num Months Winners16
# Losers259
% Winners25.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table31

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2217.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)36.96
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago1

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.58
Daily leverage (max)5.21

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.64
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades22.81
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.09
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.10
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.19
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.40
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df29
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio1.68
Upside Potential Ratio3.42
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms13
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error28
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.10
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.29
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df29
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio1.11
Upside Potential Ratio2.81
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms13
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error28
t(b)1.19
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.31
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df664
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio8.97
Upside part of mean2.32
Downside part of mean-2.01
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms280
N negative terms385
N of observations665
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error663
t(b)6.94
p(b)0
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.24
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df664
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio8.59
Upside part of mean2.28
Downside part of mean-2.04
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms280
N negative terms385
N of observations665
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error663
t(b)6.83
p(b)0
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.33
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df130
t-0.51
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio-1.10
Upside Potential Ratio7.27
Upside part of mean2.18
Downside part of mean-2.51
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms91
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error129
t(b)2.76
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.71
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
Mean-0.43
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.95
df130
t-0.67
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio-1.41
Upside Potential Ratio6.91
Upside part of mean2.12
Downside part of mean-2.55
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms91
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.43
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.55
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error129
t(b)2.68
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.87
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.55
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.94
Median1.02
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations665
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.07
Median0.13
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.25
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.40
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.18
Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1163594752
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)210
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.72
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.77

Trading record

Placed 646 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 29, 2026Oct 29, 2026($1,954)
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 29, 2026Oct 29, 2026($1,344)
@MNQ Z6long6Oct 26, 2026Oct 29, 2026($737)
@MNQ Z6long6Oct 21, 2026Oct 22, 2026($4,382)
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 20, 2026Oct 20, 2026($450)
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 20, 2026Oct 20, 2026($388)
@MNQ Z6long6Oct 20, 2026Oct 20, 2026($1,804)
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 20, 2026Oct 20, 2026($1,234)
@MNQ Z6long6Oct 19, 2026Oct 19, 2026($1,063)
@MNQ Z6long6Oct 19, 2026Oct 19, 2026($1,488)
@MNQ Z6short6Oct 13, 2026Oct 13, 2026($539)
@MNQ Z6long6Sep 18, 2026Sep 28, 2026$5,944
@MNQ U6long6Sep 17, 2026Sep 18, 2026$2,445
@MNQ U6short6Sep 16, 2026Sep 17, 2026($3,157)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($1,443)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($1,627)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 15, 2026Sep 16, 2026($732)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 14, 2026Sep 15, 2026($1,164)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($477)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 11, 2026Sep 14, 2026($6,051)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 9, 2026Sep 11, 2026$448
@MNQ U6short6Sep 9, 2026Sep 9, 2026($672)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($396)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($191)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($460)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($851)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($210)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 3, 2026Sep 8, 2026$2,292
@MNQ U6long6Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($821)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($542)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.