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Positional Long Short

Futures · Started Apr 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
34.3%
Max Drawdown
46.5%
Trades
337
Win Trades
26.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
51.6%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

Trades MNQs long and short. Model account trades 1 MNQ per USD10k. Scale accordingly or set your max position size according to your desired risk appetite

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-7.212.715.1-0.813.1-10.0-21.4-5.418.16.8
2025-12.97.4-6.210.97.14.97.3-8.216.5-8.311.6-13.511.2
202623.29.5-2.353.414.7-7.6-17.58.4-7.60.077.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/4/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age31 months
C2 Rank404
What it tradesFutures
# Trades337
# Profitable89
% Profitable26.4%
Avg trade duration1.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.5%
drawdown periodAug 22, 2024 - March 20, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)34.3%
Avg win$3,572
Avg loss$1,068

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.73
Sortino Ratio1.10
Calmar Ratio0.93

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.24
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life50.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)59.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)34.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)38.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity40.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss64.0%
Chance of 20% account loss37.5%
Chance of 30% account loss23.5%
Chance of 40% account loss11.0%
Chance of 50% account loss2.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)885
C2 Score404
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)656

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,068
Avg Win$3,572
# Winners89
Sum Trade PL (losers)$264,815
Sum Trade PL (winners)$317,940
Num Months Winners16
# Losers248
% Winners26.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table31

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2276.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)37.94
Avg Trade Length1.60
Last Trade Ago10

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.57
Daily leverage (max)5.21

Regression

Alpha0.07
Beta0.63
Treynor Index0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades14.87
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.10
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.18
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.41
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df28
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio1.71
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms12
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error27
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.11
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.30
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df28
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.86
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms12
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error27
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.13
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.83
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.37
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df649
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio9.19
Upside part of mean2.36
Downside part of mean-1.98
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms276
N negative terms374
N of observations650
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error648
t(b)6.81
p(b)0
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.30
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df649
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.12
Upside Potential Ratio8.80
Upside part of mean2.31
Downside part of mean-2.02
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms276
N negative terms374
N of observations650
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.02
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error648
t(b)6.70
p(b)0
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.53
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df130
t0.80
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.90
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio9.92
Upside part of mean2.75
Downside part of mean-2.22
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error129
t(b)3.07
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.42
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df130
t0.65
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.68
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio9.45
Upside part of mean2.68
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error129
t(b)2.99
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.94
Median1.03
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations650
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.07
Median0.13
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.25
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.10
Median0.17
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-404697088
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)210
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.05
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.23

Trading record

Placed 623 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ Z6long6Sep 18, 2026Sep 28, 2026$5,944
@MNQ U6long6Sep 17, 2026Sep 18, 2026$2,445
@MNQ U6short6Sep 16, 2026Sep 17, 2026($3,157)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($1,443)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($1,627)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 15, 2026Sep 16, 2026($732)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 14, 2026Sep 15, 2026($1,164)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($477)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 11, 2026Sep 14, 2026($6,051)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 9, 2026Sep 11, 2026$448
@MNQ U6short6Sep 9, 2026Sep 9, 2026($672)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($396)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($191)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($460)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($851)
@MNQ U6short6Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($210)
@MNQ U6long6Sep 3, 2026Sep 8, 2026$2,292
@MNQ U6long6Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($821)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($542)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($167)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 27, 2026Aug 31, 2026($1,183)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($745)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($425)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($451)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($571)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($1,103)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 25, 2026Aug 26, 2026($506)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($1,264)
@MNQ U6long6Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($856)
@MNQ U6short6Aug 17, 2026Aug 18, 2026$4,981

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.