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Future X

Futures · Started May 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
305
Win Trades
39.7%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
2.3%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201229.4-3.2-11.7-12.6114.224.7-83.7-66.0-85.7
2013153.9-14.9-235.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-392.2
20140.0-2.2-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.2-0.2-0.5
2015-1.3-0.1-0.6-0.6-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.5
2016-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.2-0.4-0.1-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.60.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/12/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age176 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades305
# Profitable121
% Profitable39.7%
Avg trade duration18.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJan 04, 2013 - March 13, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$4,511
Avg loss$3,538

Ratios

W:L ratio0.84
Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Sortino Ratio-0.92
Calmar Ratio-0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life443.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-194.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,538
Avg Win$4,511
# Winners121
Sum Trade PL (losers)$651,047
Sum Trade PL (winners)$545,861
Num Months Winners4
# Losers184
% Winners39.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table11

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1121.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.68
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago4980

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.39
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.37
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.27
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.32
SD1.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df20
t-0.32
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio1.03
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.84
Downside SD0.99
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms16
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.32
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion1.33
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.42
Mean Square Error1.85
DF error19
t(b)0.19
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.36
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.98
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.71
Jensen alpha (a)-0.42
Mean-6.59
SD8.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.77
df20
t-1.05
p0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.80
Upside Potential Ratio0.10
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-7.38
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD8.28
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms16
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-6.59
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion8.28
Covariance-0.01
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-6.47
Mean Square Error72.09
DF error19
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-31.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta30.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.50
Treynor index (mean / b)11.62
Jensen alpha (a)-6.47
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.67
Mean-1.16
SD1.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.95
df625
t-1.29
p0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Sortino ratio-1.06
Upside Potential Ratio2.25
Upside part of mean2.46
Downside part of mean-3.62
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD1.09
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms532
N of observations626
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-1.16
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion1.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.69
Mean Square Error1.47
DF error624
t(b)-0.43
p(b)0.67
t(a)-1.26
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)10.92
Jensen alpha (a)-1.13
Mean-6.34
SD6.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.91
df625
t-1.23
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.55
Sortino ratio-0.91
Upside Potential Ratio0.34
Upside part of mean2.34
Downside part of mean-8.67
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD6.96
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms532
N of observations626
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-6.34
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion6.97
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-6.36
Mean Square Error48.70
DF error624
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.23
p(a)0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-16.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-58.76
Jensen alpha (a)-6.36
VaR(95%)0.47
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.54
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22624003381002e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)8.99903025655452e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.02
Mean of quarter 10.61
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.36
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.53
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.67
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.14
Number of observations626
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low115
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high94
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.42
Median0.61
Quartile 30.81
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.22
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.39
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.09
Quartile 30.25
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.68
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.48
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)2.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)433
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 198 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@TFS M3short80Mar 13, 2013Mar 15, 2013($72,110)
QCL J3long15Feb 27, 2013Feb 27, 2013$1,070
QCL J3short16Feb 25, 2013Feb 27, 2013($6,958)
QCL J3long13Feb 24, 2013Feb 25, 2013$14,326
QCL J3short10Feb 21, 2013Feb 21, 2013$10,610
QCL J3short10Feb 18, 2013Feb 19, 2013($780)
QCL H3short5Feb 11, 2013Feb 12, 2013($11,040)
@HE J3long20Feb 5, 2013Feb 11, 2013($11,960)
QCL G3long11Jan 2, 2013Jan 22, 2013$21,992
QCL G3short11Dec 20, 2012Dec 21, 2012($2,658)
QCL F3short15Dec 10, 2012Dec 12, 2012($16,870)
QCL F3short14Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012$928
QCL F3long15Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012($3,260)
QCL F3short16Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012($3,328)
QCL F3long10Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012($1,580)
QCL Z2long10Dec 7, 2012Dec 7, 2012($80)
QCL F3short16Nov 28, 2012Nov 29, 2012$4,392
@AD Z2long30Nov 26, 2012Nov 28, 2012($12,540)
@W Z2short30Nov 16, 2012Nov 25, 2012($20,778)
@C Z2short95Nov 15, 2012Nov 16, 2012$17,815
@OJ F3short100Nov 12, 2012Nov 15, 2012($118,550)
@EU Z2short75Nov 8, 2012Nov 8, 2012($32,663)
@EU Z2short50Nov 7, 2012Nov 8, 2012($11,025)
QCL Z2short50Nov 7, 2012Nov 7, 2012$5,600
QCL Z2short49Nov 7, 2012Nov 7, 2012$17,888
QCL Z2short45Nov 7, 2012Nov 7, 2012($8,400)
QCL Z2long55Nov 6, 2012Nov 7, 2012($11,640)
@OJ F3short100Oct 30, 2012Nov 6, 2012($25,550)
QSI Z2short30Oct 18, 2012Oct 24, 2012$123,760
@EU Z2long10Oct 18, 2012Oct 18, 2012($4,455)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.