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Portfolio Trader DASH

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.2%
Max Drawdown
23.9%
Trades
1393
Win Trades
66.3%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
65.7%
Subscribe $100/mo

About this strategy

Portfolio Trader DASH is an aggressive professional-grade algorithm consisting of a portfolio of 6 high-performing ETF trading systems. Trading addresses a basket of various sectors, asset classes, world regions, and risk profiles. Its blend of quantitative strategies relies solely on price dynamics. This portfolio offers 2 layers of risk management through decorrelation - which is achieved by maximizing asynchronous ETF returns -, and through enforcing hard stop-losses and early take-profits. Each trading system is autonomous and is rebalanced at least once a month. Risk management is subject to daily monitoring. Trade signals are issued in the morning preceding the next session and are to be executed within the first hour of the regular day session's opening at the trader's discretion. An aggressive leverage of 2:1 is set as a maximum.

No matter the heavy focus on enhancing returns and containing maximum drawdown, please understand that all risk-management claims rely on long-term historical volatility assumptions. Therefore, no risk-free or low-risk trading can be guaranteed at any time and unforeseen events can cause you to lose all your money.

For more information, please visit www.fxphysics.com.

Trend-following Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-1.86.34.2-6.33.62.21.73.42.2-0.87.3-6.315.7
20255.7-5.2-7.1-0.55.47.42.54.14.01.11.50.720.1
20267.94.0-10.25.02.8-3.42.12.3-0.5-0.7-0.97.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/1/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age35 months
C2 Rank352
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1393
# Profitable924
% Profitable66.3%
Avg trade duration13.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.9%
drawdown periodFeb 06, 2025 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.2%
Avg win$113
Avg loss$158

Ratios

W:L ratio1.51
Sharpe Ratio0.80
Sortino Ratio1.09
Calmar Ratio0.88

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.57
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life58.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-9.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)17.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.2%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss29.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)633
C2 Score352
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)446

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$158
Avg Win$115
# Winners924
Sum Trade PL (losers)$74,232
Sum Trade PL (winners)$105,886
Num Months Winners23
# Losers469
% Winners66.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3790

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table35

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19534.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)325.58
Avg Trade Length13.60
Last Trade Ago1

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.24
Daily leverage (max)2.43

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.51
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.49
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.58
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats74.29
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.62
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.73
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df32
t1.61
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio2.94
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms11
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error31
t(b)9.27
p(b)0
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.15
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df32
t1.45
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio1.29
Upside Potential Ratio2.73
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms11
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error31
t(b)9.47
p(b)0
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.15
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df731
t1.85
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.53
Upside Potential Ratio8.65
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms420
N negative terms312
N of observations732
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error730
t(b)18.33
p(b)0
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.14
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df731
t1.73
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio1.42
Upside Potential Ratio8.50
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms420
N negative terms312
N of observations732
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error730
t(b)18.62
p(b)0
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df130
t0.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.38
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio8.68
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)11.09
p(b)0.09
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df130
t0.40
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio0.78
Upside Potential Ratio8.60
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)11.13
p(b)0.09
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-14.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations732
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations43
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-944162432
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)62
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.33

Trading record

Placed 109 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SDS long237Oct 22, 2026Oct 23, 2026$220
COLO long42Sep 15, 2026Oct 15, 2026($101)
XLF long77Sep 15, 2026Oct 15, 2026($124)
SDS long241Oct 14, 2026Oct 15, 2026$284
EWS long131Sep 15, 2026Oct 15, 2026($265)
GREK long25Sep 15, 2026Oct 15, 2026($152)
XT long26Sep 30, 2026Oct 6, 2026$41
SDS long228Oct 2, 2026Oct 5, 2026$27
VEA long134Aug 31, 2026Sep 30, 2026($254)
SDS long227Sep 14, 2026Sep 15, 2026($37)
THD long30Aug 17, 2026Sep 11, 2026$7
GREK long26Aug 31, 2026Sep 4, 2026($3)
EWK long80Aug 31, 2026Sep 4, 2026($2)
MOO long26Aug 31, 2026Sep 1, 2026$14
EWP long35Aug 20, 2026Sep 1, 2026($16)
SDS long228Aug 4, 2026Aug 25, 2026($135)
SSO long180Aug 18, 2026Aug 20, 2026($98)
USO long17Jul 31, 2026Aug 18, 2026$24
EPP long38Jul 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026$75
SSO long180Aug 13, 2026Aug 17, 2026$30
SSO long179Aug 11, 2026Aug 12, 2026($2)
XLE long36Jul 31, 2026Aug 11, 2026$37
SSO long376Jul 30, 2026Aug 3, 2026$1,091
XOP long12Jul 31, 2026Aug 3, 2026($34)
SSO long186Jul 24, 2026Jul 27, 2026$210
SSO long183Jul 22, 2026Jul 23, 2026($249)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.