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Keep It Super Simple FX

Forex · Started Jan 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
9
Win Trades
33.3%
Profit Factor
0
Win Months
5.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-1.8-12.11.1-26.513.4-29.1-7.958.8-80.514.712.2-110.3-102.0
2018-891.6-78.8-46.3-52.6-146.5-91.2-1042.7-205.9-377.8-74.1-106.1-152.5-249.1
2019-275.8-306.0-27.3-11.4-46.50.01182.3-63.7-291.4-25.6-68.4-1016.1
2020-4.0-32.5-74.4-103.7-38.0-74.5-101.4-103.7-37.4-0.6-54.2-4.4
2021-33.7-29.6-16.5-2.5-16.8-3.4-2.0-1.7-3.5-21.2-12.7-12.4
2022-2.7-3.7-10.5-2.3-3.9-6.1-4.5-7.1-2.7-14.3-2.8-8.3
2023-2.7-4.1-4.8-11.9-3.8-10.7-0.1-2.7-3.2-0.5-7.7-4.0
2024-6.6-3.2-0.8-1.7-6.6-1.0-0.1-0.9-1.4-3.3-4.9-3.2
2025-2.4-0.4-5.9-0.6-2.2-3.9-0.3-2.0-0.90.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/16/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age119 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades9
# Profitable3
% Profitable33.3%
Avg trade duration368.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 15, 2020 - Aug 18, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$197
Avg loss$2,854

Ratios

W:L ratio0.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Sortino Ratio-0.96
Calmar Ratio-0.99

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life231.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-580.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated5.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,854
Avg Win$197
# Winners3
Sum Trade PL (losers)$17,126
Sum Trade PL (winners)$590
Num Months Winners5
# Losers6
% Winners33.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table12

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)529978.44
Avg Position Time (hrs)8832.97
Avg Trade Length368
Last Trade Ago444

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-5.23
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-0.33
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.56
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-2.98

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean357.55
SD506.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df23
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio267.58
Upside Potential Ratio269.56
Upside part of mean360.20
Downside part of mean-2.65
Upside SD506.29
Downside SD1.34
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms13
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion357.55
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion506.32
Covariance-1.38
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-15.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)367.13
Mean Square Error267990.19
DF error22
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-776.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta744.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-518.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1253.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-22.39
Jensen alpha (a)367.13
Mean-4.61
SD8.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.51
df23
t-0.75
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-0.64
Upside Potential Ratio0.67
Upside part of mean4.86
Downside part of mean-9.46
Upside SD4.75
Downside SD7.24
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms13
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion-4.61
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion8.74
Covariance0.56
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-8.49
Mean Square Error75.73
DF error22
t(b)1.09
p(b)0.14
t(a)-1.20
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta20.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-23.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.65
Jensen alpha (a)-8.49
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.54
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.95
Mean1124.78
SD786.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.43
df542
t2.06
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio426.04
Upside Potential Ratio431.73
Upside part of mean1139.80
Downside part of mean-15.01
Upside SD789.17
Downside SD2.64
N nonnegative terms317
N negative terms226
N of observations543
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion1124.78
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion786.84
Covariance-27.61
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-192.89
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1251.18
Mean Square Error614924.75
DF error541
t(b)-2.17
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.28
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-367.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-18.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha175.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2327.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.83
Jensen alpha (a)1251.18
Mean-4.44
SD15.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df542
t-0.42
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.07
Sortino ratio-0.39
Upside Potential Ratio2.67
Upside part of mean30.14
Downside part of mean-34.59
Upside SD10.19
Downside SD11.30
N nonnegative terms317
N negative terms226
N of observations543
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-4.44
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion15.22
Covariance-1.25
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-7.87
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error222.37
DF error541
t(b)-4.89
p(b)1
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-20.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha20.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.79
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.85
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.26
Mean4002.57
SD1526.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.61
df130
t1.85
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.40
Sortino ratio1018.57
Upside Potential Ratio1023.25
Upside part of mean4020.96
Downside part of mean-18.39
Upside SD1540.81
Downside SD3.93
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms13
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.38
Mean of criterion4002.57
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion1526.69
Covariance-96.09
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-643.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4892.97
Mean Square Error2286559.50
DF error129
t(b)-1.87
p(b)0.60
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1321.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta35.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha558.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha9227.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.22
Jensen alpha (a)4892.97
Mean-13.36
SD27.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df130
t-0.34
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio3.23
Upside part of mean66.45
Downside part of mean-79.81
Upside SD18.54
Downside SD20.60
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms13
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.31
Mean of criterion-13.36
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion27.81
Covariance-3.14
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-20.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)13.97
Mean Square Error712.98
DF error129
t(b)-3.46
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-32.87
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-62.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha90.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)13.97
VaR(95%)0.94
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.97
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.69
Median0.99
Quartile 31.25
Maximum717
Mean of quarter 10.31
Mean of quarter 20.81
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 4121.00
Inter Quartile Range0.56
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high359.86
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.73
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.79
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.12
Number of observations543
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.96
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum741
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 418.36
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low60
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.60
Number of outliers high63
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high38.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum741
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 461.92
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.29
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high168.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.47

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.34
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.31
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-941715840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1921
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.03

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY short50Feb 28, 2017Aug 21, 2025($130)
GBP/CHF short30Jul 31, 2017Jan 17, 2018($1,609)
GBP/CHF short30Jun 21, 2017Jul 14, 2017($1,034)
GBP/CHF short30Jun 5, 2017Jun 8, 2017$326
GBP/CHF short30May 23, 2017May 26, 2017$298
GBP/JPY long50Feb 14, 2017Feb 16, 2017$0
GBP/JPY long50Feb 13, 2017Feb 14, 2017($4)
GBP/JPY short60Feb 3, 2017Feb 9, 2017$0
GBP/JPY long10Jan 26, 2017Feb 3, 2017$0

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.