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Test B

Stocks · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.4%
Max Drawdown
66.7%
Trades
186
Win Trades
74.2%
Profit Factor
3.60
Win Months
57.4%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-1.60.65.73.83.81.84.3-1.62.9-2.06.30.727.2
2017-1.52.3-3.50.1-5.6-3.40.7-15.41.8-16.213.78.5-20.5
20186.11.7-0.3-1.322.359.4-1.9-2.8-2.2-3.87.2-9.480.0
20196.2-2.0-16.73.9-9.50.0-14.6-0.23.4-3.68.9-24.3
2020-2.1-17.8-33.519.911.0-6.91.510.4-5.6-4.236.9-2.7-10.6
202114.216.98.32.3-3.51.7-7.32.83.14.25.1-4.050.2
20220.10.71.6-3.4-14.6-9.29.35.8-11.92.56.3-9.1-22.7
202310.83.1-5.4-2.8-9.67.5-0.8-6.9-1.9-4.013.05.25.5
20242.62.22.8-4.1-1.00.65.91.2-1.14.110.71.727.7
20254.43.2-8.9-5.28.70.15.35.15.4-3.57.28.832.8
2026-1.1-12.31.34.911.5-5.95.56.2-3.7-1.03.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age131 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades186
# Profitable138
% Profitable74.2%
Avg trade duration267.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown66.7%
drawdown periodNov 11, 2018 - March 20, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)9.4%
Avg win$1,368
Avg loss$1,340

Ratios

W:L ratio3.60
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.50
Calmar Ratio0.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.49
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life274.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-110.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss80.5%
Chance of 20% account loss50.0%
Chance of 30% account loss33.5%
Chance of 40% account loss21.0%
Chance of 50% account loss6.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)314
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,340
Avg Win$1,368
# Winners138
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,333
Sum Trade PL (winners)$188,810
Num Months Winners74
# Losers48
% Winners74.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct42529

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table130

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)913846.31
Avg Position Time (hrs)15230.77
Avg Trade Length634.60
Last Trade Ago3420

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.86
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.06
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.58
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.30
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.76

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df41
t1.23
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms21
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance0.10
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error40
t(b)4.90
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean0.22
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df41
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio2.10
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms21
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.09
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error40
t(b)5.05
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.81
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean0.39
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df925
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio6.49
Upside part of mean2.32
Downside part of mean-1.93
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms468
N negative terms458
N of observations926
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.09
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error924
t(b)19.86
p(b)0
t(a)0.08
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.25
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df925
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio5.72
Upside part of mean2.25
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms468
N negative terms458
N of observations926
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.10
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error924
t(b)21.40
p(b)0
t(a)-0.37
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean1.14
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.59
df130
t1.13
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.37
Sortino ratio2.46
Upside Potential Ratio10.34
Upside part of mean4.79
Downside part of mean-3.65
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion1.14
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance0.26
r0.67
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.89
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.28
DF error129
t(b)10.30
p(b)0.11
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.89
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df130
t0.89
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.02
Sortino ratio1.85
Upside Potential Ratio9.67
Upside part of mean4.65
Downside part of mean-3.76
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion0.89
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance0.26
r0.68
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.28
DF error129
t(b)10.39
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)1.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations42
Minimum0.58
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.58
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations926
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low79
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high79
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.64
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.34
Mean of quarter 40.64
Inter Quartile Range0.31
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.66
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.75
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)2.13
Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-377480288
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)495
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.97
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.50
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.84
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.02

Trading record

Placed 155 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KIM long1000May 8, 2017Jun 15, 2017$475
PWR long1000May 23, 2017Jun 6, 2017($465)
NAVI long2000May 17, 2017May 23, 2017$1,195
CAG long1000May 2, 2017May 23, 2017$215
SWN1719E8 long10Apr 3, 2017May 20, 2017($557)
JEC long1000May 16, 2017May 19, 2017$595
NAVI long2000May 12, 2017May 15, 2017$195
TGNA long1000May 12, 2017May 15, 2017$245
I long3000Apr 28, 2017May 15, 2017($183)
PEG long1000May 10, 2017May 10, 2017$135
PWR long1000May 10, 2017May 10, 2017$225
NKE long1000May 5, 2017May 8, 2017$408
AIV long1000May 3, 2017May 5, 2017$365
DVN long1000May 3, 2017May 3, 2017$295
NWL long2000May 1, 2017May 2, 2017($708)
NRG long1000May 2, 2017May 2, 2017$175
CYTR long2000Apr 28, 2017May 1, 2017$9
NBL long1000May 1, 2017May 1, 2017($105)
BBBY long1000May 1, 2017May 1, 2017$126
DO long1000May 1, 2017May 1, 2017$275
GGP long1000May 1, 2017May 1, 2017$110
KIM long1000Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017($115)
SPLS long2000Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017($45)
MRO long1000Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017$135
XL1717O40 long22Feb 17, 2017Mar 18, 2017($917)
ABT1717O44 long10Feb 17, 2017Mar 18, 2017($607)
ALL1717O80 long10Feb 24, 2017Feb 27, 2017($204)
KMX1717N65 long4Jan 13, 2017Feb 18, 2017($603)
SYMC1717N27 long8Jan 30, 2017Feb 18, 2017($606)
CMCSA1717O72.5 long10Jan 26, 2017Jan 26, 2017$226

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.