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THG FUTURO

Futures · Started Sep 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
33.3%
Trades
488
Win Trades
44.5%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
9.7%

About this strategy





Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20159.3-0.80.4-10.1-2.2
20165.66.42.34.18.44.0-26.024.8-4.15.65.75.240.3
2017-8.8-8.228.4-10.3-13.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-16.4
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/13/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$9,053
Age135 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades488
# Profitable217
% Profitable44.5%
Avg trade duration5.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.3%
drawdown periodJune 24, 2016 - July 31, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$161
Avg loss$101

Ratios

W:L ratio1.27
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.02
Calmar Ratio0.95

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life298.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-279.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated95.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$101
Avg Win$161
# Winners217
Sum Trade PL (losers)$27,460
Sum Trade PL (winners)$34,912
Num Months Winners13
# Losers271
% Winners44.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table134

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)337.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.62
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago3439

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades9.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats34.60
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.54
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df36
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.10
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms25
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error35
t(b)-1.17
p(b)0.87
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.17
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df36
t1.32
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms25
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error35
t(b)-1.17
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.18
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df819
t1.69
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio1.53
Upside Potential Ratio6.42
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms206
N negative terms614
N of observations820
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error818
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.16
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df819
t1.53
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio6.21
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms206
N negative terms614
N of observations820
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error818
t(b)-1.27
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6765589787836416
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.03487500916872e+33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations820
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low152
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high199
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations34
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-406655840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)37
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.93
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.10
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 25 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL M7long2May 3, 2017May 3, 2017($326)
QCL M7short2May 3, 2017May 3, 2017($196)
QCL M7short2May 3, 2017May 3, 2017($186)
QCL M7short2May 3, 2017May 3, 2017($296)
QCL M7long2May 2, 2017May 2, 2017($466)
QCL M7long2May 2, 2017May 2, 2017($326)
QCL M7long2May 2, 2017May 2, 2017$14
QCL M7long1May 1, 2017May 1, 2017($58)
QCL M7short2May 1, 2017May 1, 2017$344
QCL M7short2Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017($116)
QCL M7short2Apr 27, 2017Apr 27, 2017$204
QCL M7short2Apr 27, 2017Apr 27, 2017$344
QCL M7long2Apr 26, 2017Apr 26, 2017($216)
QCL M7long2Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017$544
QCL M7short2Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017($176)
QCL M7long2Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017($236)
QCL M7short2Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017($206)
QCL M7long2Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017($16)
@ES M7long2Apr 24, 2017Apr 24, 2017($41)
@ES M7long2Apr 24, 2017Apr 24, 2017($254)
QCL M7short2Apr 21, 2017Apr 21, 2017($76)
QCL M7long1Apr 21, 2017Apr 21, 2017$12
QCL M7short2Apr 20, 2017Apr 20, 2017$4
QCL M7short2Apr 20, 2017Apr 20, 2017($226)
QCL M7long2Apr 19, 2017Apr 19, 2017($336)
QCL M7long2Apr 19, 2017Apr 19, 2017($216)
QCL M7short2Apr 18, 2017Apr 18, 2017$4
QCL M7short2Apr 18, 2017Apr 18, 2017($306)
QCL K7short2Apr 13, 2017Apr 13, 2017($136)
QCL K7long2Apr 12, 2017Apr 12, 2017($46)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.