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Greenfield Value

Stocks · Started Jul 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.9%
Max Drawdown
10.5%
Trades
32
Win Trades
43.8%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
3.7%

About this strategy

The Greenfield Value portfolio is focused on identifying stocks with accelerating revenues and EPS which comprise the "Greenfield" methodology. Once the stocks are located, they are individually selected based on recent performance where they have been beaten down in price, possibly allowing for significant gains if the market uptrend continues. Hence, the focus is to get into stocks with solid REV/EPS fundamentals but at a price that is moved down too quickly relative to group peers. The focus of this portfolio is capital appreciation. Stocks are sold using the GGT methodology (contact the author if you are not familiar).

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20150.4-3.50.3-0.2-0.2-0.6-3.9
2016-4.10.42.90.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.8
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/9/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age137 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades32
# Profitable14
% Profitable43.8%
Avg trade duration36.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.5%
drawdown periodJuly 17, 2015 - Feb 24, 2016
Cumul. Return-3.8%
Avg win$109
Avg loss$122

Ratios

W:L ratio0.73
Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Sortino Ratio-1.75
Calmar Ratio-0.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life273.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-6.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)363
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)291

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$122
Avg Win$109
# Winners14
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,191
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,524
Num Months Winners6
# Losers18
% Winners43.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct75

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table136

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)52141.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)869.03
Avg Trade Length36.20
Last Trade Ago3813

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.70

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.78
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.97
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.27
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.53
df10
t-0.55
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio-0.73
Upside Potential Ratio1.25
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms7
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.01
r0.77
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error9
t(b)3.64
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.97
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.55
df10
t-0.57
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio-0.76
Upside Potential Ratio1.23
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms7
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.01
r0.77
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error9
t(b)3.68
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df341
t-0.64
p0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio-0.83
Upside Potential Ratio5.02
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms262
N of observations342
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance0.00
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error340
t(b)6.29
p(b)0
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.66
df341
t-0.66
p0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio-0.85
Upside Potential Ratio4.98
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms80
N negative terms262
N of observations342
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance0.00
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error340
t(b)6.31
p(b)0
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df171
t-0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio5.41
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms122
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)5.39
p(b)0.31
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.00
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df171
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.71
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms122
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)5.40
p(b)0.31
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations342
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low67
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high80
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations172
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.06
Median0.06
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)222
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.64
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.90
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.25

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KIM long38Feb 17, 2016May 17, 2016$60
NHTC long36Feb 17, 2016May 11, 2016$255
SIMO long31Feb 17, 2016May 5, 2016$199
BANC long67Feb 17, 2016May 3, 2016$310
ORIT long63Feb 17, 2016May 3, 2016$54
CR long22Feb 17, 2016May 2, 2016$139
HOMB long26Feb 19, 2016Apr 29, 2016$84
STOR long40Feb 17, 2016Apr 29, 2016($7)
SSS long10Feb 17, 2016Apr 27, 2016$41
BSET long35Feb 17, 2016Apr 25, 2016($4)
PSXP long9Feb 23, 2016Apr 6, 2016($10)
PEB long38Feb 22, 2016Apr 6, 2016($19)
MTN long8Feb 19, 2016Mar 24, 2016($7)
EQM long15Feb 17, 2016Mar 24, 2016$15
AHS long16Dec 24, 2015Jan 7, 2016($45)
NVDA long412Dec 24, 2015Jan 7, 2016($1,162)
JBSS long56Sep 15, 2015Sep 29, 2015$102
NAT long197Sep 16, 2015Sep 29, 2015$76
OZRK long66Sep 15, 2015Sep 28, 2015($28)
MMI long13Aug 18, 2015Aug 24, 2015($83)
ORLY long6Aug 19, 2015Aug 24, 2015($137)
JBLU long50Jul 31, 2015Aug 24, 2015($113)
SQBK long61Aug 18, 2015Aug 21, 2015($135)
CNC long11Aug 18, 2015Aug 20, 2015($28)
RRGB long22Jul 31, 2015Aug 7, 2015($92)
CIEN long191Jul 10, 2015Aug 7, 2015($79)
PAM long92Jul 10, 2015Aug 3, 2015$39
TNP long230Jul 10, 2015Jul 29, 2015$71
ACUR long753Jul 9, 2015Jul 27, 2015($72)
CALM long14Jul 10, 2015Jul 20, 2015($69)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.