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TEST31415926

Stocks · Started Jun 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
56
Win Trades
51.8%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
0.7%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2015-6.623.2-86.0-198.6-93.7-33.7-31.8-154.2
2016-1.2-0.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/19/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age138 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades56
# Profitable29
% Profitable51.8%
Avg trade duration4.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 14, 2015 - Sept 24, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$834
Avg loss$1,736

Ratios

W:L ratio0.52
Sharpe Ratio-3.57
Sortino Ratio-3.52
Calmar Ratio-0.30

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life267.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-419.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-18.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,736
Avg Win$834
# Winners29
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,863
Sum Trade PL (winners)$24,180
Num Months Winners2
# Losers27
% Winners51.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table4

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5700.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)95.01
Avg Trade Length4
Last Trade Ago3898

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.31
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.51
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.85
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.18
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats81.34
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats87.24
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades3.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-4.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.25
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df83
t-1.81
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Sortino ratio-0.69
Upside Potential Ratio0.11
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms82
N of observations84
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error82
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)-1.93
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.87
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
Mean-0.37
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df83
t-1.68
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12
Sortino ratio-0.63
Upside Potential Ratio0.06
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms82
N of observations84
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.37
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.41
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error82
t(b)0.91
p(b)0.18
t(a)-1.82
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.41
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean-0.29
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.75
df1839
t-1.98
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.01
Sortino ratio-0.92
Upside Potential Ratio1.53
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms1772
N of observations1840
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.29
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1838
t(b)1.54
p(b)0.48
t(a)-2.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.40
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
Mean-0.37
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.90
df1839
t-2.38
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Sortino ratio-1.04
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.82
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms1772
N of observations1840
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.37
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error1838
t(b)1.72
p(b)0.48
t(a)-2.45
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6757587726893056
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.96919992475716e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations84
Minimum0.25
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.64
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations1840
Minimum0.60
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low77
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high68
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.93
Median0.93
Quartile 30.93
Maximum0.93
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.09
Median0.15
Quartile 30.56
Maximum0.97
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.97
Inter Quartile Range0.47
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-567265664
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.92
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NUGT long120Dec 4, 2015Feb 1, 2016($498)
DUST long200Dec 3, 2015Dec 4, 2015($540)
NUGT long150Nov 30, 2015Dec 3, 2015$98
DUST long200Nov 20, 2015Nov 30, 2015$138
NUGT long100Nov 17, 2015Nov 20, 2015$244
DUST long100Nov 13, 2015Nov 16, 2015($109)
DUST long100Nov 11, 2015Nov 12, 2015$36
NUGT long100Nov 9, 2015Nov 10, 2015($17)
DUST long50Nov 6, 2015Nov 9, 2015$16
NUGT long100Nov 3, 2015Nov 6, 2015($965)
DUST long170Nov 2, 2015Nov 3, 2015$31
NUGT long90Oct 30, 2015Nov 2, 2015$7
DUST long200Oct 30, 2015Oct 30, 2015$66
NUGT long100Oct 26, 2015Oct 30, 2015($754)
DUST long300Oct 23, 2015Oct 26, 2015$279
NUGT long80Oct 23, 2015Oct 23, 2015$110
NUGT long90Oct 21, 2015Oct 22, 2015$243
DUST long150Oct 21, 2015Oct 21, 2015$95
NUGT long76Oct 20, 2015Oct 21, 2015($146)
DUST long400Oct 19, 2015Oct 20, 2015($176)
NUGT long90Oct 16, 2015Oct 19, 2015($386)
DUST long200Oct 14, 2015Oct 16, 2015$26
NUGT long80Oct 8, 2015Oct 14, 2015$902
DUST long300Oct 7, 2015Oct 8, 2015$189
DUST long400Sep 14, 2015Oct 5, 2015($5,040)
NUGT long300Sep 8, 2015Sep 14, 2015($1,086)
DUST long400Sep 8, 2015Sep 8, 2015$20
NUGT long300Sep 3, 2015Sep 8, 2015($756)
DUST long400Sep 3, 2015Sep 3, 2015($1,244)
NUGT long200Sep 2, 2015Sep 3, 2015($404)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.