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olimp ES futures

Futures · Started Jun 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.4%
Max Drawdown
47.3%
Trades
470
Win Trades
51.1%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
6.6%

About this strategy

Olimp ES futures works on the virtual platform to provide high level of availability and security. System is 100% automatic and each position is protected by two-level dynamic stop, which operates in 24/5 mode and is synchronized with the CME Globex trading platform.
In addition, this system will never leave an open position for the weekend.
The logic of our system uses both well-known technical analysis indicators as well as indicators developed by our team for the past 17 years.

Market: CME Globex, S&P 500 E-mini
Position: long/short
Pyramid: no (always one contract)
Stop: dynamic stop (largest losing trade $-782)
Profit: dynamic profit

You can find historical results and more information about us on our website:

http://www.olimpsystems.co.uk/94739988hist.html

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201510.821.92.713.83.9-0.30.564.5
2016-15.48.4-31.6-5.311.62.60.00.00.00.00.00.0-32.1
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/1/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age138 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades470
# Profitable240
% Profitable51.1%
Avg trade duration7.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.3%
drawdown periodNov 03, 2015 - May 16, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)12.4%
Avg win$363
Avg loss$334

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio0.93

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life262.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)14.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity57.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss58.0%
Chance of 20% account loss22.0%
Chance of 30% account loss6.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)873
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)465

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$334
Avg Win$363
# Winners240
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,880
Sum Trade PL (winners)$87,085
Num Months Winners9
# Losers230
% Winners51.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table137

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)435.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.26
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago3764

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades24.28
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.40
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.41
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.53
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.47
df12
t1.64
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.44
Sortino ratio3.61
Upside Potential Ratio5.39
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error11
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.47
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df12
t1.50
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.31
Sortino ratio3.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.82
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error11
t(b)0.54
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.19
Treynor index (mean / b)1.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.50
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df389
t1.64
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.38
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio10.89
Upside part of mean2.29
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms230
N of observations390
Mean of predictor-0.00
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error388
t(b)2.31
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)2.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.45
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.38
df389
t1.47
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.23
Sortino ratio2.10
Upside Potential Ratio10.57
Upside part of mean2.26
Downside part of mean-1.81
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms230
N of observations390
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error388
t(b)2.29
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)1.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.02
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df171
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.71
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio8.52
Upside part of mean1.64
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms108
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error170
t(b)2.18
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.06
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df171
t-0.14
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio-0.29
Upside Potential Ratio8.28
Upside part of mean1.62
Downside part of mean-1.67
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms108
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error170
t(b)2.14
p(b)0.42
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.97
Median1.05
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations390
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations172
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.22
Median0.22
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)195
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.33
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.05
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.50

Trading record

Placed 464 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES U6long1Jun 16, 2016Jun 17, 2016$105
@ES U6short1Jun 15, 2016Jun 16, 2016$867
@ES U6long1Jun 15, 2016Jun 15, 2016($608)
@ES U6short1Jun 13, 2016Jun 14, 2016$592
@ES M6short1Jun 10, 2016Jun 10, 2016$167
@ES M6long1Jun 7, 2016Jun 10, 2016($721)
@ES M6long1Jun 6, 2016Jun 6, 2016$67
@ES M6long1Jun 3, 2016Jun 3, 2016($71)
@ES M6long1Jun 1, 2016Jun 2, 2016$67
@ES M6long1May 30, 2016May 31, 2016($371)
@ES M6long1May 27, 2016May 27, 2016$267
@ES M6long1May 23, 2016May 26, 2016$1,767
@ES M6long1May 19, 2016May 20, 2016$580
@ES M6short1May 18, 2016May 19, 2016$130
@ES M6long1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016($58)
@ES M6short1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016$92
@ES M6long1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016($383)
@ES M6short1May 17, 2016May 17, 2016$655
@ES M6long1May 16, 2016May 17, 2016$280
@ES M6short1May 16, 2016May 16, 2016($283)
@ES M6short1May 13, 2016May 13, 2016$117
@ES M6long1May 13, 2016May 13, 2016($246)
@ES M6short1May 13, 2016May 13, 2016($321)
@ES M6long1May 13, 2016May 13, 2016($83)
@ES M6short1May 12, 2016May 12, 2016$392
@ES M6long1May 11, 2016May 11, 2016($646)
@ES M6long1May 9, 2016May 10, 2016$30
@ES M6long1May 6, 2016May 6, 2016$317
@ES M6short1May 6, 2016May 6, 2016($196)
@ES M6long1May 6, 2016May 6, 2016($183)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.