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Tactical High Yield

Stocks · Started Feb 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.0%
Max Drawdown
29.2%
Trades
18
Win Trades
55.6%
Profit Factor
5
Win Months
56.8%

About this strategy

Overview: Position size, loss limits, and capital gains targets are all determined prior to initiating new positions. Full positions usually require 2-3 tranches. Retirement account friendly by generally avoiding the use of margin, short positions, and investments that produce K-1s (e.g. MLPs).

Background on Portfolio Manager: This portfolio has been developed over the last five years by an experienced financial professional with personal investments in most securities in the portfolio. The manager started their career as a professional securities trader at a hedge fund and now advises financial advisers around the country. The manager conducts substantial initial and ongoing research before determining the best strategies based on available capital, existing allocations, risk, and yield of the portfolio.

Investment Strategy: The Tactical High Yield portfolio focuses on high current income with a tilt toward special situations and finding value across both common and preferred equity. Moderate capital gains (target of 10-20% annually) derived through taking advantage of volatility, special situations, and disciplined entry and exit prices is a secondary objective of the fund. The fully allocated portfolio will generally, but is not guaranteed, to have (i) long only positions (ii) no more than 15% in a single security (iii) a yield target of >7.5% and minimum yield of 6% (iv) a cash allocation of 5-15% (v) and lower volatility than the U.S. equity markets.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20150.00.51.1-3.2-6.0-3.2-8.60.63.7-0.0-3.0-17.4
2016-4.91.611.20.92.08.53.41.4-2.3-3.6-5.83.315.2
20171.74.6-1.22.4-0.81.3-2.10.10.3-0.81.5-0.86.2
2018-4.6-5.82.20.95.51.7-0.24.5-4.9-1.3-0.2-4.5-7.3
201915.60.90.5-3.1-0.64.2-0.23.61.50.2-3.98.228.6
20201.10.8-17.21.01.83.8-2.53.1-1.2-2.47.31.0-5.3
2021-1.42.30.81.01.20.80.8-1.5-1.31.3-0.54.68.2
2022-1.2-0.64.5-3.92.1-3.22.91.3-2.8-3.93.3-2.4-4.3
20232.4-1.3-1.00.0-1.31.02.6-3.1-1.3-0.71.41.2-0.3
2024-1.0-0.2-0.01.00.02.30.02.8-0.7-1.34.4
20250.41.90.2-1.51.70.41.71.80.80.21.50.19.5
20261.13.7-2.22.3-0.1-0.43.0-1.3-1.10.85.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/7/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age143 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades18
# Profitable10
% Profitable55.6%
Avg trade duration2761.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.2%
drawdown periodApril 24, 2015 - Feb 14, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)3.0%
Avg win$942
Avg loss$1,377

Ratios

W:L ratio5.03
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.17
Calmar Ratio0.63

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.45
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life275.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-233.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss6.7%
Chance of 40% account loss6.7%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,373
Avg Win$954
# Winners10
Sum Trade PL (losers)$10,987
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,538
Num Months Winners81
# Losers8
% Winners55.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct22934

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table141

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4774138.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)79568.98
Avg Trade Length3315.40
Last Trade Ago3220

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.32
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.52
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.66
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.66
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.02
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.30
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df26
t0.93
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio2.97
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms13
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.57
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.09
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error25
t(b)4.11
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean0.13
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df26
t0.76
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms13
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.08
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error25
t(b)4.04
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.40
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.17
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df599
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio7.14
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.24
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms321
N negative terms279
N of observations600
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.06
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error598
t(b)17.10
p(b)0
t(a)-0.59
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean0.13
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df599
t0.71
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio6.82
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-1.26
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms321
N negative terms279
N of observations600
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.06
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error598
t(b)16.88
p(b)0
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.40
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.97
df130
t1.40
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.75
Sortino ratio3.04
Upside Potential Ratio10.84
Upside part of mean1.43
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.38
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.06
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)7.71
p(b)0.16
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)1.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.38
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.86
df130
t1.33
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.65
Sortino ratio2.85
Upside Potential Ratio10.62
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.27
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.06
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)7.75
p(b)0.16
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)1.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations600
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.11
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)7.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.90
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1185213440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)296
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.63
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.97
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.45
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.94
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.94

Trading record

Placed 27 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
POT long60Mar 27, 2015Jan 2, 2018($1,925)
BMR long235Mar 6, 2015Jan 27, 2016$673
CSG long375Mar 6, 2015Jun 10, 2015$221
VNRAP long75Mar 17, 2015Apr 27, 2015$211

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.