Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

AutoSwing

Futures · Started Jan 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-79.8%
Max Drawdown
83.5%
Trades
137
Win Trades
63.5%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
0.7%

About this strategy

Currently not available

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201568.1-8.5-73.1-13.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-64.3
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/7/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age143 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades137
# Profitable87
% Profitable63.5%
Avg trade duration6.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown83.5%
drawdown periodFeb 04, 2015 - March 18, 2015
Cumul. Return-64.0%
Avg win$623
Avg loss$1,298

Ratios

W:L ratio0.84
Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Sortino Ratio-0.30
Calmar Ratio-0.31

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life283.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-56.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-79.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity410.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,298
Avg Win$623
# Winners87
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,914
Sum Trade PL (winners)$54,209
Num Months Winners1
# Losers50
% Winners63.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table141

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)407.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.80
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago4195

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.49

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.15
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.59
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.86
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.08
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.00
SD1.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df6
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio1.83
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-1.50
Upside SD1.15
Downside SD0.82
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms6
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion1.53
Covariance0.04
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error2.44
DF error5
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.22
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-15.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta30.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
Mean-0.97
SD1.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.55
df6
t-0.48
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio0.91
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-2.05
Upside SD0.82
Downside SD1.19
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms6
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.97
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion1.53
Covariance0.04
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)8.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.28
Mean Square Error2.39
DF error5
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-14.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta30.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-1.28
VaR(95%)0.55
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.62
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.69
Mean-0.47
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df219
t-0.45
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89
Sortino ratio-0.67
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean2.47
Downside part of mean-2.94
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.71
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms172
N of observations220
Mean of predictor-0.13
Mean of criterion-0.47
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.02
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.19
Mean Square Error0.70
DF error218
t(b)2.15
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.36
Mean-0.88
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.93
df219
t-0.75
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio-1.05
Upside Potential Ratio2.82
Upside part of mean2.37
Downside part of mean-3.26
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.84
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms172
N of observations220
Mean of predictor-0.14
Mean of criterion-0.88
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance0.02
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.75
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error218
t(b)2.12
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.75
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-1.74
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.98
df171
t-1.41
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Sortino ratio-2.20
Upside Potential Ratio1.81
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-3.16
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.79
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms155
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.25
Mean of criterion-1.74
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance0.02
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.50
Mean Square Error0.75
DF error170
t(b)1.89
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.22
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.85
Jensen alpha (a)-1.50
Mean-2.19
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.19
df171
t-1.55
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Sortino ratio-2.34
Upside Potential Ratio1.45
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-3.55
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms155
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.26
Mean of criterion-2.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance0.02
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.92
Mean Square Error0.98
DF error170
t(b)1.86
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.36
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.09
Jensen alpha (a)-1.92
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.42
Quartile 10.85
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.88
Mean of quarter 10.59
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.44
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.42
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.88
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations220
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations172
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.70
Median0.70
Quartile 30.70
Maximum0.70
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.27
Median0.42
Quartile 30.57
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.72
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.18
Median0.35
Quartile 30.52
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.34
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)42
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.73
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.99
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.67
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.02

Trading record

Placed 65 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@DX M5long4Apr 6, 2015Apr 6, 2015($952)
@ES M5long3Mar 31, 2015Apr 5, 2015($2,124)
@ES M5short4Mar 30, 2015Mar 30, 2015($1,132)
@ES M5short2Mar 30, 2015Mar 30, 2015($1,416)
@DX M5long3Mar 29, 2015Mar 30, 2015$1,071
QGC M5short2Mar 29, 2015Mar 29, 2015$464
@DX M5long5Mar 27, 2015Mar 27, 2015$385
QGC J5long2Mar 26, 2015Mar 27, 2015($936)
@ES M5long3Mar 27, 2015Mar 27, 2015($62)
@ES M5short3Mar 27, 2015Mar 27, 2015$389
@ES M5short2Mar 26, 2015Mar 27, 2015$934
@ES M5long3Mar 26, 2015Mar 26, 2015$1,101
@ES M5long3Mar 24, 2015Mar 25, 2015($4,187)
@ES M5long3Mar 24, 2015Mar 24, 2015$351
@ES M5long3Mar 23, 2015Mar 23, 2015$164
QGC J5long2Mar 23, 2015Mar 23, 2015$304
QGC J5long2Mar 23, 2015Mar 23, 2015$604
@ES M5long3Mar 19, 2015Mar 20, 2015$1,364
@ES M5long2Mar 19, 2015Mar 19, 2015$484
QGC J5long2Mar 15, 2015Mar 19, 2015$2,944
@ES H5long3Mar 13, 2015Mar 13, 2015($1,487)
@ES H5short3Mar 12, 2015Mar 13, 2015($699)
QGC J5long2Mar 11, 2015Mar 12, 2015($176)
QGC J5long3Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015$1,206
QGC J5long3Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015($954)
@ES H5long3Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015$576
QGC J5long2Mar 9, 2015Mar 9, 2015$324
QGC J5long10Mar 2, 2015Mar 6, 2015($27,200)
@ES H5short2Mar 2, 2015Mar 2, 2015($316)
@ES H5short2Feb 27, 2015Feb 27, 2015$34

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.