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Pure Momentum

Stocks · Started Nov 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.6%
Max Drawdown
31.3%
Trades
158
Win Trades
48.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
31.2%

About this strategy

Momentum is the one anomaly of the markets that defies the efficient market hypothesis. It continues to persist even though its presence is well known. This trading system is based on published research spanning decades. Asset classes included are equities (North American and International), bonds, real estate and commodities.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20141.81.33.0
20155.4-4.2-0.14.61.0-4.6-0.0-12.10.8-0.4-1.8-2.0-13.8
2016-7.63.02.20.6-1.82.20.2-1.3-0.0-2.21.31.1-3.0
20171.01.21.91.11.7-0.13.00.81.23.23.02.322.2
20186.8-7.1-2.5-0.91.31.02.12.10.3-6.53.1-5.2-6.3
20193.7-1.53.32.3-4.41.40.93.1-2.01.00.31.910.2
20200.1-2.1-4.01.20.4-0.13.80.10.00.00.00.0-0.9
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/3/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age145 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades158
# Profitable77
% Profitable48.7%
Avg trade duration93.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.3%
drawdown periodMay 22, 2015 - Jan 20, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)0.6%
Avg win$716
Avg loss$742

Ratios

W:L ratio1.18
Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Sortino Ratio-0.16
Calmar Ratio0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.32
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life287.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-279.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity7.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss58.5%
Chance of 20% account loss16.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$742
Avg Win$716
# Winners77
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,102
Sum Trade PL (winners)$55,105
Num Months Winners45
# Losers81
% Winners48.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct15959

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table144

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)133887.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)2231.45
Avg Trade Length93
Last Trade Ago2272

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1
Daily leverage (max)1.55

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.13
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-21.71
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.05
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats21.85
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.60
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.00
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df74
t-0.04
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.77
Sortino ratio-0.02
Upside Potential Ratio1.40
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms34
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error73
t(b)6.01
p(b)0
t(a)-1.45
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.01
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.08
df74
t-0.20
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.70
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio1.30
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms34
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.02
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error73
t(b)6.56
p(b)0
t(a)-1.51
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df1651
t-0.18
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio6.42
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms789
N negative terms863
N of observations1652
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1650
t(b)12.87
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df1651
t-0.30
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-0.15
Upside Potential Ratio6.33
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms789
N negative terms863
N of observations1652
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1650
t(b)12.98
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6799562442276864
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.31093075803618e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations75
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.97
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations1652
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low101
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high75
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.10
Median0.14
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-540027840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)243
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GLD long56Apr 6, 2020Jul 22, 2020$680
QQQ long31May 11, 2020Jul 22, 2020$674
TLT long7Jun 9, 2020Jul 22, 2020$65
HYG long14Jun 9, 2020Jul 22, 2020$9
EFA long152Jun 19, 2020Jul 22, 2020$357
EEM long234Jun 30, 2020Jul 22, 2020$784
EWJ long87Jun 1, 2020Jul 22, 2020($43)
SPY long101Apr 27, 2020Jul 22, 2020$1,384
LQD long8Jun 9, 2020Jul 22, 2020$45
LQD long144Apr 21, 2020Jun 1, 2020$101
TLT long86Jan 31, 2020Apr 21, 2020$1,655
SPY long109Oct 10, 2019Mar 30, 2020($2,806)
IWM long102Nov 11, 2019Mar 20, 2020($875)
VGK long290Nov 29, 2019Mar 11, 2020($314)
EEM long406Nov 11, 2019Feb 20, 2020($104)
EWJ long266Sep 12, 2019Feb 10, 2020$148
SCZ long75Dec 31, 2019Jan 31, 2020($148)
EFA long164Sep 20, 2019Jan 31, 2020$56
DBC long93Dec 20, 2019Jan 22, 2020($57)
TLT long287Jun 28, 2019Jan 10, 2020$541
SCZ long66Nov 1, 2019Nov 29, 2019$72
QLD long52Sep 12, 2019Oct 10, 2019($188)
SPY short52Oct 10, 2019Oct 10, 2019$4
SSO long100Sep 9, 2019Oct 10, 2019($648)
IWM long15Sep 19, 2019Sep 20, 2019($18)
GDXJ long160Aug 7, 2019Sep 9, 2019($638)
VGK long127Jul 1, 2019Jul 31, 2019($244)
EEM long162Jun 28, 2019Jul 31, 2019($170)
QLD long31Jul 1, 2019Jul 29, 2019$121
SSO long54Jul 1, 2019Jul 29, 2019$206

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.