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Stock Mirror Fund

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.2%
Max Drawdown
24.0%
Trades
186
Win Trades
47.8%
Profit Factor
2.70
Win Months
28.8%

About this strategy


We only do trading following the dominant trend in the market . We use our proprietary algorithm to calculate levels of support and resistance. We also use the classical rules of technical analysis.Our order are given only when the market is closed, every month. Only in very rare cases we carry out modifications to the active orders during the month , when volatility increases wide.
Our analyzes are 70% automatic , while 30% are analyzed by at least 3 traders to eliminate emotionality and errors by the choices of trading.
We believe that a fully automated trading system can be very dangerous when the market changes , while human intelligence knows when it's time to break the rules.
Our trading system is not based on past data, this way there is no Overfitting , instead the system is based on our experience and own trading theory that uses levels of trading of our invention. For this reason, we expect that in the future we will continue to achieve good results.
We had some good results in the past performances with low draw down .
We're here to get involved in Collective2 100% , a website that we believe ingenious and well built
This System was paused a year and a half, a period thet we used to specialize in cryptocoin.
To maintain the highest quality of the signals we will accept a maximum of 90 followers.

Hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20147.71.04.75.67.1-1.31.4-7.5-3.27.6-4.019.3
2015-2.23.20.9-1.73.5-1.72.03.70.0-0.3-3.21.45.5
201610.9-0.60.30.83.4-2.32.3-2.6-3.0-0.8-1.42.28.7
20175.63.40.41.82.4-1.74.7-0.80.43.8-2.6-0.817.5
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.0-7.96.2-1.9-4.8-0.35.18.66.410.6
20206.2-0.51.517.9-0.5-6.525.85.3-14.022.524.91.2107.8
2021-5.1-7.5-0.14.46.5-2.83.22.6-8.61.10.00.0-7.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/6/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$13,906
Age154 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades186
# Profitable89
% Profitable47.8%
Avg trade duration53.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.0%
drawdown periodJune 04, 2020 - June 16, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)10.2%
Avg win$619
Avg loss$212

Ratios

W:L ratio2.73
Sharpe Ratio0.56
Sortino Ratio0.83
Calmar Ratio1.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life331.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-98.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss36.0%
Chance of 20% account loss11.0%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$212
Avg Win$619
# Winners89
Sum Trade PL (losers)$20,589
Sum Trade PL (winners)$55,098
Num Months Winners44
# Losers97
% Winners47.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1139

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table153

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)76875.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)1281.26
Avg Trade Length53.40
Last Trade Ago1835

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.03
Daily leverage (max)2.07

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.13
Treynor Index0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.77
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.37
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.40
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.65

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df81
t1.96
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.13
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms43
N of observations82
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error80
t(b)3.70
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.16
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df81
t1.77
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio1.40
Upside Potential Ratio2.73
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms43
N of observations82
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.02
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error80
t(b)3.65
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.17
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df1805
t2.66
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio1.54
Upside Potential Ratio7.13
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms713
N negative terms1093
N of observations1806
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1804
t(b)6.92
p(b)0.42
t(a)2.31
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)1.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.16
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df1805
t2.45
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio1.39
Upside Potential Ratio6.93
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms713
N negative terms1093
N of observations1806
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1804
t(b)7.01
p(b)0.42
t(a)2.14
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)1.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6808834202927104
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.4942687770764e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations82
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1806
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low181
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high201
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.07
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-139.58
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations59
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-420245088
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)12
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.73
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.97
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 240 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FB long15May 11, 2021Oct 4, 2021$380
EBAY long55Apr 20, 2021Oct 4, 2021$260
GBTC long75Mar 4, 2021Oct 4, 2021($595)
MSFT long37Feb 22, 2021Oct 4, 2021$1,687
VALE long175Feb 8, 2021Oct 4, 2021($659)
PHYS long5216Dec 4, 2020Oct 4, 2021($3,420)
AAPL long132Feb 8, 2021Mar 3, 2021($960)
CVX short5Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020($7)
AAL short250Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020$23
SABR short333Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020($14)
CVX short5Aug 3, 2020Dec 4, 2020($33)
GBTC long2121Feb 10, 2020Dec 4, 2020$24,111
PHYS long3099Feb 11, 2020Dec 4, 2020$1,803
SABR short333Aug 3, 2020Dec 4, 2020($1,579)
AAL short250Aug 3, 2020Dec 4, 2020($1,400)
ETHE long10Jun 11, 2020Aug 3, 2020($857)
SABR short1200May 5, 2020Jul 13, 2020($595)
AAL short600May 5, 2020Jul 13, 2020$214
TOT short240May 5, 2020Jul 13, 2020($145)
AMZN long3May 2, 2019May 4, 2020$1,039
NFLX long21May 2, 2019May 4, 2020$835
TSLA short1Feb 10, 2020Feb 11, 2020$18
AAPL long40May 6, 2019Feb 10, 2020$4,641
GLD long33Oct 4, 2017Dec 6, 2017($40)
CTXS short28Nov 13, 2017Nov 27, 2017($87)
FAST short50Nov 13, 2017Nov 27, 2017($109)
VRSN long33Oct 2, 2017Nov 13, 2017$89
Z long86Oct 2, 2017Nov 6, 2017($20)
BMRN short25Oct 2, 2017Oct 26, 2017$252
GTLS short60Oct 2, 2017Oct 9, 2017($221)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.