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Alpha Star 1

Futures · Started Jan 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.9%
Max Drawdown
70.5%
Trades
1069
Win Trades
30.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
9.7%

About this strategy

We track the 20 most liquid Futures on Currenices and Commodities. We analyze the markets on an intraday Basis. At the end of every trading day we make a trading decision based on a computational algorithm. We also have implemneted a volatility adjusted Money management

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20143.639.39.9-13.7-11.515.128.68.641.82.14.8-5.0180.6
201517.5-4.5-12.1-10.6-16.1-6.724.1-4.9-22.3-26.236.2-15.7-46.3
2016-4.09.76.030.8-1.5-1.2-0.3-13.1-25.5-4.4-14.8-0.2-25.6
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/15/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$1,000,000
Age156 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1069
# Profitable326
% Profitable30.5%
Avg trade duration13.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown70.5%
drawdown periodMarch 18, 2015 - Oct 07, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)0.9%
Avg win$40,190
Avg loss$17,009

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio0.04
Sortino Ratio0.06
Calmar Ratio0.13

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life308.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-287.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity232.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)534
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$17,009
Avg Win$40,190
# Winners326
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,637,989
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,101,834
Num Months Winners15
# Losers743
% Winners30.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table155

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19818.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)330.31
Avg Trade Length13.80
Last Trade Ago3647

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades70.16
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.74
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.38
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.91
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.20
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df57
t0.86
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.66
Upside Potential Ratio2.11
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms15
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error56
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.08
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df57
t0.39
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.07
Sortino ratio0.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms15
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error56
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.50
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.12
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df1284
t0.90
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio7.10
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms918
N negative terms367
N of observations1285
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1283
t(b)-1.24
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.99
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.08
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df1284
t0.57
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio0.38
Upside Potential Ratio6.83
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-1.31
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms918
N negative terms367
N of observations1285
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1283
t(b)-1.25
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations58
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations1285
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low189
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high209
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.28
Quartile 10.35
Median0.42
Quartile 30.48
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.28
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.55
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-834314496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)569
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@KC Z6long15Oct 10, 2016Nov 14, 2016$32,505
QHG Z6long30Oct 28, 2016Nov 11, 2016$234,823
QSI Z6long14Oct 31, 2016Nov 11, 2016($10,462)
QPL F7long15Oct 28, 2016Nov 11, 2016($29,895)
@SM Z6long40Nov 9, 2016Nov 11, 2016($45,520)
@S F7long30Nov 9, 2016Nov 11, 2016($45,990)
@AD Z6long34Nov 3, 2016Nov 11, 2016($20,672)
QGC Z6long17Oct 26, 2016Nov 10, 2016$26,994
@W Z6long50Oct 6, 2016Nov 10, 2016($11,650)
@BO Z6long65Oct 10, 2016Nov 10, 2016$35,360
@EU Z6long19Nov 3, 2016Nov 10, 2016($16,265)
@JY Z6short14Oct 5, 2016Nov 3, 2016($8,512)
@SM Z6long37Oct 21, 2016Nov 2, 2016$4,144
@S F7long21Oct 18, 2016Nov 2, 2016($5,156)
@C Z6long50Oct 3, 2016Nov 2, 2016($6,650)
@EU Z6short31Oct 10, 2016Nov 2, 2016$26,683
@CT Z6long38Oct 31, 2016Nov 1, 2016($45,714)
QCL Z6long15Oct 13, 2016Oct 26, 2016($20,670)
@CT Z6long37Oct 18, 2016Oct 25, 2016($47,286)
QHO X6long13Sep 28, 2016Oct 25, 2016$42,047
@SM Z6short35Oct 10, 2016Oct 18, 2016($24,780)
@S X6short30Oct 6, 2016Oct 14, 2016($20,490)
QCL X6long15Sep 28, 2016Oct 13, 2016$55,080
@AD Z6long32Sep 22, 2016Oct 7, 2016($21,376)
@EU Z6long30Sep 27, 2016Oct 6, 2016($19,740)
@BO Z6long62Sep 30, 2016Oct 6, 2016($29,884)
@S X6short55Sep 26, 2016Oct 3, 2016($41,628)
@C Z6short85Sep 28, 2016Sep 30, 2016($28,305)
QHO X6long17Sep 22, 2016Sep 27, 2016($33,480)
@W Z6short50Sep 26, 2016Sep 27, 2016($22,275)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.