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Volatility Long-Short

Stocks · Started May 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.0%
Max Drawdown
87.5%
Trades
9
Win Trades
0.0%
Profit Factor
0.20
Win Months
48.1%

About this strategy

The strategy uses quantitatively based approach to investing in volatility based index ETNs, taking advantage of periods when volatility spikes by purchasing long ETN positions, as well as benefitting from down periods when volatility is suppressed by acquiring short volatility ETN positions.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20130.5-8.6-1.2-1.27.15.910.9-1.511.2
2014-13.0-6.8-0.93.313.710.6-8.08.3-9.0-4.47.7-11.0-13.3
2015-6.712.04.76.77.6-9.115.0-38.23.917.5-2.8-6.4-10.1
2016-11.11.813.50.210.1-7.620.85.8-0.8-2.97.34.143.8
201721.13.511.32.54.94.210.1-8.512.312.14.712.1133.1
2018-6.2-81.62.5-1.71.40.8-1.41.0-2.5-2.81.34.8-82.2
20190.1-1.13.2-0.63.13.30.39.8-2.3-1.3-1.5-0.412.7
20204.56.17.6-0.5-2.2-0.64.9-5.21.1-1.0-1.0-0.912.8
2021-2.6-4.9-3.91.7-0.13.32.80.2-2.51.81.1-0.4-3.7
2022-2.4-1.3-4.5-7.4-2.2-0.51.5-2.8-5.3-6.67.0-1.8-24.0
20234.7-3.21.80.3-2.31.8-1.1-3.9-4.5-2.43.66.70.6
2024-0.6-2.90.9-3.4-0.03.9-0.02.50.1-4.3-0.42.8-1.7
2025-4.72.8-0.9-2.5-1.32.0-0.2-0.32.31.0-0.6-0.8-3.4
2026-0.01.9-2.90.2-0.80.6-0.4-0.5-2.1-1.2-5.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/22/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age163 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades9
# Profitable0
% Profitable0.0%
Avg trade duration701.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown87.5%
drawdown periodJan 12, 2018 - March 05, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.0%
Avg win$0
Avg loss$637

Ratios

W:L ratio0.22
Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Sortino Ratio-0.07
Calmar Ratio-0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.16
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life371.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-425.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity612.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$637
Avg Win$0
# Winners0
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,735
Sum Trade PL (winners)$0
Num Months Winners78
# Losers9
% Winners0.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1264

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table162

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1009679.69
Avg Position Time (hrs)16827.99
Avg Trade Length701.20
Last Trade Ago3151

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.30
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.10
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.29
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades—
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.11
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-6.72
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.79
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats0.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-1.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df78
t0.16
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.23
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms34
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error77
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.11
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df78
t-0.47
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio0.70
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms34
N of observations79
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error77
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean-0.02
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df1741
t-0.12
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio3.87
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms927
N negative terms815
N of observations1742
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.02
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1740
t(b)8.00
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.61
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.12
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.25
df1741
t-0.63
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.51
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio3.03
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms927
N negative terms815
N of observations1742
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error1740
t(b)6.68
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.18
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.99
df130
t-0.71
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio6.65
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-1.06
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.43
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.08
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.47
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
Mean-0.19
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.08
df130
t-0.77
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio-1.44
Upside Potential Ratio6.52
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.37
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.02
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.14
p(b)0.33
t(a)-1.53
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations79
Minimum0.25
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations1742
Minimum0.49
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low108
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high104
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.08
Median0.19
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30.22
Mean of quarter 40.57
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.82
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations48
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.84
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.97
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405712512
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)52
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.26
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.44
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.58

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XIV long1099Sep 3, 2013Feb 22, 2018($3,322)
VIXY long20Feb 20, 2014Feb 21, 2014($112)
VIXY long52Jan 28, 2014Feb 19, 2014($176)
VIXY long24Jan 3, 2014Jan 6, 2014($50)
VIXY long22Dec 12, 2013Dec 19, 2013($193)
VIXY long22Dec 5, 2013Dec 9, 2013($100)
VXZ long44Oct 17, 2013Oct 25, 2013($3)
ZIV long320May 23, 2013Jun 21, 2013($582)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.