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TF-PROFITABLE DAYTRADER

Futures · Started Dec 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
67.2%
Trades
204
Win Trades
69.1%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2012-38.1-38.1
2013126.8-11.427.7-78.4-75.6292.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-46.9
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/5/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$7,500
Age169 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades204
# Profitable141
% Profitable69.1%
Avg trade duration7.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown67.2%
drawdown periodApril 02, 2013 - April 18, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$254
Avg loss$516

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio0.25
Sortino Ratio0.59
Calmar Ratio0.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life441.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-144.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity431.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated73.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)381

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$516
Avg Win$254
# Winners141
Sum Trade PL (losers)$32,519
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,862
Num Months Winners3
# Losers63
% Winners69.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table168

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)462.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.71
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago4906

Regression

Alpha0.08
Beta0.03
Treynor Index2.66

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.12
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.08
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-69.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.07
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.84
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.56
SD1.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df7
t0.79
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio2.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean2.41
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD1.42
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion1.56
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1.62
Covariance0.07
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)6.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.37
Mean Square Error2.53
DF error6
t(b)1.11
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta21.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.68
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-1.37
Mean0.54
SD1.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df7
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio0.53
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean1.80
Downside part of mean-1.26
Upside SD0.98
Downside SD1.02
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1.51
Covariance0.08
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)8.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.15
Mean Square Error1.84
DF error6
t(b)1.62
p(b)0.08
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta21.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-3.15
VaR(95%)0.49
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.30
Mean1.14
SD1.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df232
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.45
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio5.69
Upside part of mean4.43
Downside part of mean-3.29
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.78
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms161
N of observations233
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion1.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.06
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error1.14
DF error231
t(b)0.83
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.56
Treynor index (mean / b)3.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.97
Mean0.53
SD1.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df232
t0.39
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio4.58
Upside part of mean4.20
Downside part of mean-3.66
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.92
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms161
N of observations233
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.13
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error1.29
DF error231
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.34
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.33
df171
t-0.23
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.44
Sortino ratio-0.40
Upside Potential Ratio3.70
Upside part of mean3.13
Downside part of mean-3.47
Upside SD0.55
Downside SD0.85
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms133
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.34
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.50
Mean Square Error1.03
DF error170
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.97
Jensen alpha (a)-0.50
Mean-0.93
SD1.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.81
df171
t-0.58
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio-0.92
Upside Potential Ratio2.98
Upside part of mean2.99
Downside part of mean-3.92
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD1.01
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms133
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion-0.93
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.13
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.08
Mean Square Error1.29
DF error170
t(b)0.68
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.73
Jensen alpha (a)-1.08
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.43
Quartile 11
Median1.03
Quartile 31.18
Maximum2.11
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.71
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.43
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high2.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations233
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high44
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations172
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.57
Quartile 10.57
Median0.57
Quartile 30.57
Maximum0.57
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.47
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.22
Median0.32
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20.32
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.62
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)16
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.67
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.66
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.96
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.98

Trading record

Placed 89 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$174
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$424
@TFS M3long2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013($6)
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$54
@TFS M3long2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013($256)
@TFS M3long2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$414
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$194
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013$454
@TFS M3short2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013($76)
@TFS M3long2May 31, 2013May 31, 2013($276)
@TFS M3short6May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$452
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($354)
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$366
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($354)
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($254)
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$56
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$196
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$26
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($244)
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($154)
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($224)
@TFS M3short3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013($274)
@TFS M3long3May 16, 2013May 16, 2013$156
@TFS M3short2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013($36)
@TFS M3long2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013($196)
@TFS M3long2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013$144
@TFS M3short2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013($366)
@TFS M3long2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013($336)
@TFS M3short2May 6, 2013May 6, 2013($186)
@ES M3short2Apr 29, 2013May 1, 2013$872

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.