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Dekalog

Futures · Started Feb 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.7%
Max Drawdown
30.9%
Trades
204
Win Trades
37.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.7%

About this strategy

Parties interested in learning more about the Dekalog Trading System are invited to visit the dedicated Dekalog Trading System website at http://www.dekalog-trading-system.webs.com/ and to follow the Dekalog Blog at http://dekalogblog.blogspot.com/





Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2009-0.0-5.20.12.4-0.13.8-12.56.5-1.4-0.1-0.2-7.8
2010-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.24.5-7.40.22.9-1.6
20110.4-0.1-0.22.60.6-0.10.50.7-0.1-0.1-0.2-1.82.1
2012-0.9-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-2.6
2013-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.0-1.4
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/23/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age215 months
What it tradesFutures, Forex
# Trades204
# Profitable76
% Profitable37.3%
Avg trade duration8.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.9%
drawdown periodSept 10, 2009 - Nov 03, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.7%
Avg win$1,474
Avg loss$883

Ratios

W:L ratio0.99
Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Sortino Ratio-0.42
Calmar Ratio-0.01

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life919.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-930.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity39.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.3%
Percent Trades Futures0.7%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$883
Avg Win$1,474
# Winners76
Sum Trade PL (losers)$113,006
Sum Trade PL (winners)$112,046
Num Months Winners13
# Losers128
% Winners37.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table213

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)11518.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)191.97
Avg Trade Length8
Last Trade Ago5437

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.96

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-15.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.82
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.78
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df68
t-1.00
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Sortino ratio-0.55
Upside Potential Ratio0.82
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms61
N of observations69
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error67
t(b)-1.60
p(b)0.94
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df68
t-1.07
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Sortino ratio-0.57
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms61
N of observations69
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error67
t(b)-1.57
p(b)0.94
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.00
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df1525
t-0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms136
N negative terms1390
N of observations1526
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1524
t(b)-2.29
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df1525
t-0.31
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio2.51
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms136
N negative terms1390
N of observations1526
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1524
t(b)-2.48
p(b)0.53
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.86
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.37
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6691116128665600
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.1628725158719e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations69
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1526
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low136
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high141
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.13
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.09
Median0.14
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1452272000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)419
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES H2short1Dec 12, 2011Jan 3, 2012($2,208)
@S X1short1Jul 27, 2011Aug 11, 2011$1,505
QNG N1long1May 16, 2011May 19, 2011($1,848)
@S X1short1Apr 27, 2011May 5, 2011$2,012
QHG K1short1Apr 12, 2011Apr 20, 2011$3,080
EUR/CAD long10Apr 11, 2011Apr 15, 2011$48
GBP/USD short10Apr 12, 2011Apr 14, 2011($90)
QNG H1long1Dec 20, 2010Jan 5, 2011$3,172
@US Z0short1Oct 14, 2010Nov 30, 2010$3,378
@OJ F1short1Nov 8, 2010Nov 29, 2010$322
EUR/CAD long60Sep 13, 2010Nov 8, 2010$3,144
@CC Z0short1Oct 19, 2010Oct 25, 2010($1,548)
@SM Z0short1Oct 19, 2010Oct 19, 2010($708)
@DX Z0short1Oct 14, 2010Oct 19, 2010($1,533)
QGC Z0long1Oct 14, 2010Oct 19, 2010($4,148)
@LE Z0short1Oct 14, 2010Oct 15, 2010($558)
@QG X0long4Oct 6, 2010Oct 7, 2010($1,052)
FC V0long1Sep 13, 2010Sep 15, 2010($646)
@ES U0short1Jul 22, 2010Jul 22, 2010($208)
@ES U0long1Jul 22, 2010Jul 22, 2010($8)
@SM Z9short1Sep 21, 2009Oct 9, 2009($488)
@SB H0short1Sep 21, 2009Sep 29, 2009($1,285)
EUR/AUD long10Sep 22, 2009Sep 28, 2009($68)
@CT Z9short1Sep 22, 2009Sep 25, 2009($513)
AUD/JPY long10Sep 17, 2009Sep 25, 2009($1)
C Z9short1Sep 21, 2009Sep 24, 2009($433)
EUR/USD short10Sep 22, 2009Sep 22, 2009($12)
AUD/USD short10Sep 22, 2009Sep 22, 2009($17)
LB X9long1Sep 21, 2009Sep 22, 2009($998)
AUD/USD long10Sep 17, 2009Sep 22, 2009$3

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.