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Daily E-Mini Hedge

Futures · Started Jul 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-4.2%
Max Drawdown
71.6%
Trades
605
Win Trades
44.1%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
1.8%

About this strategy

The daily e-Mini Hedge fund trades a combination of 10 different algorithmic mechanical strategies. Some take little bites out of the market - others hang on for profit targets of up to 12 points. Each Strategy may trade between 1 and 4 contracts depending upon a proprietary algorithm's judgment on the probability that the strategy's next trade will be a winner or loser. This effective money/risk management technique results in significantly higher Average P/L per contract than is shown by C2's P/L Per Unit, which is designed to remove the affects of money management techniques. To calculate a worse case P/L per Average Contract, divide Cumu $ by 4 * Number of Trades.

The system assumes that you will be taking earnings out of your account on a monthly basis, and therefore does not increase or decrease the number of contracts traded based on account balance. All trades are based on using a fixed account size of $20,000.

After the first 62 calendar days of trading, the cumulative net profit is approximately 2.7 times the max drawdown. That means that after its deepest drawdown, the system was again at a new equity high in less than 1 month.

Each individual strategy has demonstrated on both live trading and historic back testing that, over time, it is likely to produce profit factors greater than 1.7. By combining the strategies into a single portfolio (hedge fund) we diversify our trades, and reduce the likely overall account drawdown while maximizing return on investment.

The system begins trading at 08:00 AM Chicago time and exits all trades on or before 3:15PM Chicago time. As many as 3 eMini S&P contracts AND 4 eMini NASDAQ contract positions may be opened in the morning, outside of normal day trading hours. Your account size should be sufficient to hand those non-daytrading margin requirements.

More information is available on www.dailyeminihedge.com









Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200821.5-0.410.7-1.6-24.4-0.5-0.8
2009-19.5-4.734.6-15.4-20.2-3.5-3.6-3.7-3.9164.5-7.6-12.728.0
2010-6.6-13.1-8.8-3.70.00.00.0-0.1-0.00.00.0-0.0-28.8
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-2.80.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20150.00.00.00.00.0-47.80.00.00.00.00.00.0-47.8
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/9/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$14,116
Age222 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades605
# Profitable267
% Profitable44.1%
Avg trade duration1.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown71.6%
drawdown periodOct 30, 2009 - June 29, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-4.2%
Avg win$403
Avg loss$275

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Sortino Ratio-0.09
Calmar Ratio0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life523.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-574.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-4.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity252.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$275
Avg Win$403
# Winners267
Sum Trade PL (losers)$92,905
Sum Trade PL (winners)$107,489
Num Months Winners5
# Losers338
% Winners44.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table220

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)60.57
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.01
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago6030

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.06
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades23.47
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.44
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.36
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.07
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df60
t1.23
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio2.49
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms8
N of observations61
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error59
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-70.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.12
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df60
t1.10
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio1.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.05
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms8
N of observations61
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error59
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)15.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.49
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df1342
t1.27
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio3.54
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.50
N nonnegative terms1202
N negative terms141
N of observations1343
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.70
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance-0.03
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.78
DF error1341
t(b)-1.60
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
Mean0.12
SD0.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df1342
t0.32
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio2.57
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms1202
N negative terms141
N of observations1343
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.68
SD of criterion0.86
Covariance-0.03
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.74
DF error1341
t(b)-1.90
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.10
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.88
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations61
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.55
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-11.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1343
Minimum0.50
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.65
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low141
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high136
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.08
Median0.12
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.12
Median0.27
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.23
Mean of quarter 30.29
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.46
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.52
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.56
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401208000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2068
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.56
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES H0short6Mar 30, 2010Apr 1, 2010($48)
@ES H0short1Mar 30, 2010Mar 30, 2010($8)
@ES H0long1Mar 29, 2010Mar 29, 2010($8)
@ES H0short2Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010($16)
@ES H0short1Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010($8)
@ES H0long1Mar 25, 2010Mar 25, 2010($8)
@ES H0long2Mar 25, 2010Mar 25, 2010($16)
@TFS H0long1Mar 25, 2010Mar 25, 2010($8)
@ES H0short1Mar 25, 2010Mar 25, 2010($8)
@ES H0long2Mar 24, 2010Mar 24, 2010($16)
@ES H0long2Mar 24, 2010Mar 24, 2010($16)
@ES H0long2Mar 23, 2010Mar 23, 2010($16)
@ES H0long1Mar 22, 2010Mar 22, 2010($8)
@ES H0long1Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($8)
@ES H0short1Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($8)
@ES H0long2Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($16)
@ES H0short2Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($116)
@ES H0short2Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($66)
@ES H0long2Mar 18, 2010Mar 18, 2010($541)
@ES H0long2Mar 16, 2010Mar 16, 2010$234
@ES H0short3Mar 15, 2010Mar 15, 2010($212)
@ES H0long2Mar 15, 2010Mar 15, 2010($416)
@TFS H0long1Mar 15, 2010Mar 15, 2010($168)
@ES H0long2Mar 12, 2010Mar 12, 2010$184
@ES H0long3Mar 11, 2010Mar 11, 2010$89
@ES H0long2Mar 10, 2010Mar 10, 2010($291)
@ES H0long2Mar 10, 2010Mar 10, 2010$284
@ES H0long1Mar 10, 2010Mar 10, 2010$155
@ES H0long2Mar 9, 2010Mar 9, 2010$59
@ES H0long2Mar 9, 2010Mar 9, 2010$359

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.