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Simply Balanced

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2026

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
-1.5%
Max Drawdown
23.3%
Trades
65
Win Trades
43.1%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
55.6%

About this strategy

Welcome to Simple Portfolio Service (SPS). Our mission is to democratize access to momentum-based investing for individuals seeking returns beyond traditional robo-advisors or index funds, without the high cost of professional portfolio management. We believe markets are too complex to time consistently. Our approach removes emotion and guesswork by relying on a model-driven signaling system developed through years of research. Momentum investing capitalizes on sustained trends across sectors and has proven effective across various market conditions.
During Risk-On periods, the portfolio holds up to 18 diversified stock positions with built-in industry exposure limits. During Risk-Off periods, the strategy rotates to cash — simple capital preservation, no complex hedging.
What SPS offers:
- Signal-based trade recommendations you replicate in your own brokerage account
- Minimal time commitment—no daily monitoring required
- Full control—your funds never leave your personal account

SPS is not a get-rich-quick scheme or day-trading service and does not guarantee returns like all market investments.
We recommend a minimum of $25,000 and suggest allocating only a portion of your total portfolio that you're comfortable with during drawdown periods. Start conservatively and increase exposure as you gain confidence. While this strategy avoids leverage, stock investments carry inherent risk—drawdowns are possible and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20260.4-1.81.012.5-10.7-7.77.40.2-0.5-1.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/11/2026
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age8 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades65
# Profitable28
% Profitable43.1%
Avg trade duration27.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.3%
drawdown periodJune 02, 2026 - July 30, 2026
Cumul. Return-1.5%
Avg win$791
Avg loss$624

Ratios

W:L ratio0.97
Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Sortino Ratio-0.05
Calmar Ratio-0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.53
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life10.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss67.0%
Chance of 20% account loss17.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)402
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)616
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)608

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$624
Avg Win$791
# Winners28
Sum Trade PL (losers)$23,074
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,154
Num Months Winners5
# Losers37
% Winners43.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct196

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table9

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)39827.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)663.79
Avg Trade Length27.70
Last Trade Ago60

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.16
Daily leverage (max)1.96

Regression

Alpha-0.05
Beta0.97
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-20.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.65
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.01
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df5
t-0.03
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio-0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.87
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.02
r0.67
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error4
t(b)1.79
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
Mean-0.02
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df5
t-0.08
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.68
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio1.78
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.01
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error4
t(b)1.70
p(b)0.08
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.02
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df149
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio7.63
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.38
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms80
N of observations150
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error148
t(b)7.48
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.59
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
Mean-0.05
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.19
df149
t-0.14
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio7.42
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.39
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms80
N of observations150
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.19
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error148
t(b)7.54
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.19
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.00
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df130
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.77
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio7.79
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-1.40
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)8.11
p(b)0.15
t(a)-0.83
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean-0.03
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df130
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio7.58
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)8.15
p(b)0.15
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations150
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-422968576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)58
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.03

Trading record

Placed 184 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DRAM long155Jul 6, 2026Jul 30, 2026($2,233)
USD long103Jun 12, 2026Jun 24, 2026($481)
QLD long163Jun 12, 2026Jun 23, 2026($307)
SPXL long76Jun 12, 2026Jun 23, 2026($689)
QQQ long22May 8, 2026Jun 23, 2026$120
DRAM long155Jun 12, 2026Jun 23, 2026$763
SPY long21May 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026($265)
DRAM long100Jun 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026($307)
QLD long174May 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026($1,042)
USD long55Jun 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026($502)
SPXL long80May 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026($1,292)
USD long111May 8, 2026Jun 5, 2026($671)
DRAM long202May 8, 2026Jun 5, 2026$752
LWLG long470Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$2,562
PRAX long15Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$244
HYMC long132Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$158
AXTI long75Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$3,768
FSLY long215Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($582)
WBS long68Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$68
BW long285Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($784)
VSEC long22Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($528)
OPTX long545Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($871)
LITE long5Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$26
FORM long39Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$914
IHS long598Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($5)
SNDK long5Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$3,482
AAOI long32Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026($101)
SKM long134Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$118
OCS long180Apr 10, 2026May 8, 2026$881
ERAS long290Apr 10, 2026Apr 28, 2026($1,926)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.