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Safety Factor Capital

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2026

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
7.4%
Max Drawdown
10.1%
Trades
102
Win Trades
65.7%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
80.0%
Subscribe $20/mo

About this strategy

Investment Philosophy
Safety Factor Capital (SFC) is a long-biased equity strategy built to deliver steady, risk-controlled returns with low correlation to the broad equity market. We buy quality, large-cap businesses only when their price structure offers a clear margin of safety against well-defined technical support.

The approach borrows from structural engineering: every position is sized and bounded so that no single holding, sector or market move can compromise the integrity of the portfolio. Entries are technical; fundamentals and dividend profile confirm the quality of the business.

"We don't trade the noise; we trade the structure."

Portfolio Architecture: Core and Satellites
The portfolio has two blocks with different jobs, measured and reported separately.
• Core: long-term holdings in defensive, dividend-paying businesses with durable structure. The core provides stability and income, and its size is capped so it never crowds out the satellite engine. The cap is tied to the strategy's drawdown budget and reviewed periodically.
• Satellites: tactical long and short positions that rotate through a curated universe of liquid names, capturing range moves and turning them into realized gains.

Risk Framework
Risk limits are written, fixed and applied at entry, so capital preservation never depends on discretion in the moment.
• Position size: every position is sized as a defined fraction of total equity, so no single idea can damage the portfolio. Shorts are sized smaller than longs.
• Sector exposure: gross exposure per sector is capped, and net exposure is monitored, so the book never becomes a concentrated sector bet.
• Leverage: the strategy does not rely on margin as a structural source of return.
• Cash reserve: free capital is kept as tactical liquidity and as protection in market stress.

Short positions are a minority of the book, used mainly as hedges and occasionally as tactical opportunities, never as concentrated directional bets. Positions opened under an earlier sizing scheme are held to their natural exit; every new position follows the current rules.

Sector Policy
The strategy favors sectors with predictable cash flows: Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Energy, Utilities and infrastructure-related Real Estate. Other sectors are traded tactically through satellite positions.

SFC deliberately underweights large-cap Technology. Those names lead the market today and carry elevated correction risk; staying outside that concentration keeps the strategy's correlation to the index low. The trade-off is accepted: in technology-led periods SFC may lag the index, in exchange for lower beta and a differentiated return stream.

Dividends and Portfolio Objectives
Dividends are a complementary source of return, not an entry trigger. When a technical entry coincides with an upcoming ex-dividend date, the payment is captured; a dividend date never accelerates an entry that is not technically ready.
• Capital preservation: protecting the portfolio's structural integrity is the primary directive.
• Risk-adjusted growth: consistent returns with controlled drawdowns, prioritizing risk-adjusted ratios over headline return.
• Low correlation: a return stream that diversifies traditional equity portfolios.
• Yield and flow: dividend income from core holdings while each thesis unfolds.

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20261.7-7.73.80.93.51.61.1-4.54.33.27.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/9/2026
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age9 months
C2 Rank943
Rank at C2 %Top 5.7%
Rank ##266
What it tradesStocks
# Trades102
# Profitable67
% Profitable65.7%
Avg trade duration35.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.1%
drawdown periodFeb 27, 2026 - March 22, 2026
Cumul. Return7.4%
Avg win$256
Avg loss$319

Ratios

W:L ratio1.94
Sharpe Ratio0.63
Sortino Ratio0.97
Calmar Ratio1.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life5.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)1.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss4.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)324
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)537
C2 Score943
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)370

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$319
Avg Win$256
# Winners67
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,180
Sum Trade PL (winners)$17,156
Num Months Winners8
# Losers35
% Winners65.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2167

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table10

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)50715.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)845.26
Avg Trade Length35.20
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.93
Daily leverage (max)1.07

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.87
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-4.96
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.55
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.77
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.02
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df7
t-0.14
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio1.87
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error6
t(b)1.16
p(b)0.15
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.02
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.19
df7
t-0.18
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio1.81
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error6
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.14
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.09
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df193
t0.66
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.04
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio9.90
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms93
N of observations194
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error192
t(b)1.73
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.08
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df193
t0.61
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio9.80
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms93
N of observations194
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error192
t(b)1.71
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.18
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.66
df130
t1.18
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.44
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio11.70
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.17
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df130
t1.15
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.39
Sortino ratio2.71
Upside Potential Ratio11.58
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations194
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1131599616
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)23
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.30

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MA short5Nov 5, 2026Nov 5, 2026($3)
ENB long40Aug 24, 2026Nov 4, 2026($66)
CMG long150Oct 15, 2026Nov 4, 2026$370
PM long10Oct 14, 2026Nov 4, 2026$75
WEN long800Sep 14, 2026Nov 4, 2026$214
MU short3Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026$44
NVO long100Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026$228
CMCSA long300Oct 6, 2026Nov 3, 2026$621
BSX short60Oct 6, 2026Oct 23, 2026($246)
MRK short35Aug 18, 2026Oct 5, 2026($2)
CPA long65Sep 23, 2026Oct 5, 2026$345
HSBC short20Aug 5, 2026Oct 1, 2026$140
CAT long5Sep 21, 2026Sep 29, 2026($18)
TXN long15Sep 22, 2026Sep 29, 2026$156
IBRX long250Sep 22, 2026Sep 22, 2026$80
CPA long65Aug 17, 2026Sep 22, 2026$156
SMCI long50Aug 19, 2026Sep 22, 2026$183
MDLZ long50Aug 13, 2026Aug 24, 2026$63
DIS long50Aug 18, 2026Aug 24, 2026$267
CMG long70Aug 18, 2026Aug 24, 2026$276
BAC short40Aug 17, 2026Aug 24, 2026$70
SG long400Aug 19, 2026Aug 24, 2026$100
WMT long20Aug 19, 2026Aug 21, 2026($281)
ABNB short10Aug 17, 2026Aug 19, 2026($83)
DELL short6Aug 17, 2026Aug 18, 2026$87
META short5Aug 17, 2026Aug 18, 2026$126
ETN short6Aug 12, 2026Aug 13, 2026$57
BA long10Aug 3, 2026Aug 13, 2026$10
HD long10Aug 5, 2026Aug 13, 2026($97)
SPOT long5Jul 27, 2026Aug 13, 2026($10)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.