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Merqatrx Ratio

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2026

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
-6.7%
Max Drawdown
20.1%
Trades
205
Win Trades
50.2%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
40.0%
Subscribe $89/mo

About this strategy

Mercatrix (Latin: The Trader) – reinvented as the modern trading system "Merqatrx", which presents the "Ratio" strategy to you here.

Ratio is a sophisticated, institutional-grade algorithmic trading strategy designed to navigate the complexities of the US equity markets through a multi-layered, adaptive framework.

Strategy Philosophy: Adaptive Resilience
Rather than relying on a single market view, this strategy utilizes a multi-regime logic that dynamically shifts capital between aggressive growth, tactical defense, and proactive hedging. It is engineered to capture upside momentum while maintaining a high-sensitivity "emergency brake" for market turbulence.

Key Pillars of the Strategy

Dynamic Momentum Engine: When markets show clear strength, the core algorithm focuses on high-performing indices like the Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, using trend-following filters to ensure participation in sustained rallies.

Multi-Layered Protection: The strategy features a reactive "Dump Catcher" designed to detect rapid market declines (drawdowns exceeding a significant limit over several days) and immediately rotate into the safety of short-term treasuries.

Tactical "Defense First" Framework: By monitoring the US Dollar, sector relative strength, and corporate bond yields, the strategy identifies shifts in market sentiment to pivot between "Bull," "Mild," and "Bear" states.

Proactive Volatility Hedging: Unlike passive portfolios, this strategy actively monitors volatility levels (VIX) and overbought conditions to deploy tail-risk hedges through gold and volatility instruments, aiming to profit from market stress rather than just enduring it.

Stabilizing Ballast: A dedicated component uses Inverse Volatility weighting across commodities, the US dollar, and gold to reduce overall portfolio fluctuations and provide a stable foundation regardless of the economic backdrop.

Who is this for?
Merqatrx Ratio is built for investors seeking a comprehensive, hands-off solution that balances aggressive equity exposure with sophisticated risk management tools typically reserved for professional fund managers.

Trend-following Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2026-1.01.2-0.20.9-1.0-3.1-3.90.4-1.31.3-6.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/28/2026
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age9 months
C2 Rank944
Rank at C2 %Top 5.6%
Rank ##57
What it tradesStocks
# Trades205
# Profitable103
% Profitable50.2%
Avg trade duration17.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.1%
drawdown periodApril 21, 2026 - Sept 15, 2026
Cumul. Return-6.7%
Avg win$87
Avg loss$144

Ratios

W:L ratio0.70
Sharpe Ratio-1.52
Sortino Ratio-1.91
Calmar Ratio-0.77

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life9.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-16.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-8.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity15.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss15.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)428
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)794
C2 Score944
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)654

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$149
Avg Win$93
# Winners103
Sum Trade PL (losers)$15,245
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,562
Num Months Winners4
# Losers102
% Winners50.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct672

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table10

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)25332.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)422.20
Avg Trade Length17.60
Last Trade Ago29

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.77
Daily leverage (max)1.46

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.03
Treynor Index-1.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.91
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.09
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.09
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.61
df7
t-1.48
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-1.75
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error6
t(b)1.14
p(b)0.15
t(a)-1.76
p(a)0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.72
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
Mean-0.10
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.62
df7
t-1.49
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-1.76
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error6
t(b)1.10
p(b)0.16
t(a)-1.74
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.72
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.07
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.14
df190
t-0.98
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio-1.47
Upside Potential Ratio5.36
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms96
N of observations191
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error189
t(b)1.01
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.04
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.07
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.17
df190
t-1.00
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio-1.50
Upside Potential Ratio5.32
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms96
N of observations191
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error189
t(b)1.02
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.06
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.13
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.84
df130
t-1.31
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.94
Sortino ratio-2.33
Upside Potential Ratio5.23
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)1.42
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.42
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.79
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.13
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.88
df130
t-1.33
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-2.36
Upside Potential Ratio5.18
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.44
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.80
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations191
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-384860288
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)147
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.37
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.64
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-13.20

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MDY long15Jul 30, 2026Sep 23, 2026($82)
PSQ long539Aug 28, 2026Sep 17, 2026($83)
SPHB long7Sep 8, 2026Sep 15, 2026($53)
MGK long32Aug 27, 2026Sep 15, 2026($35)
TLT long73Aug 26, 2026Sep 15, 2026($5)
USMV long113Jul 30, 2026Sep 15, 2026$54
VYM long62Jul 29, 2026Sep 15, 2026$29
IAU long287Jul 29, 2026Sep 15, 2026$80
VXX long545Jul 29, 2026Sep 15, 2026($756)
SPMO long7Sep 8, 2026Sep 14, 2026($43)
IEF long31Sep 10, 2026Sep 11, 2026($5)
IEMG long37Sep 2, 2026Sep 11, 2026$36
VBR long31Jul 29, 2026Sep 8, 2026$3
IEMG long208Aug 4, 2026Sep 1, 2026$128
PSQ long32Aug 26, 2026Aug 27, 2026($13)
QQQ long4Aug 25, 2026Aug 26, 2026($0)
PSQ long293Aug 20, 2026Aug 25, 2026$16
PDBC long276Aug 19, 2026Aug 20, 2026$52
TLT long103Aug 11, 2026Aug 20, 2026$59
PSQ long114Aug 12, 2026Aug 19, 2026$15
QQQ long4Aug 11, 2026Aug 12, 2026$19
PDBC long264Jul 30, 2026Aug 12, 2026$110
PSQ long59Aug 10, 2026Aug 11, 2026$4
QQQ long6Aug 4, 2026Aug 10, 2026($19)
TLT long110Jul 28, 2026Aug 5, 2026($102)
PSQ long445Jul 30, 2026Aug 4, 2026($286)
IEMG long20Jul 30, 2026Aug 3, 2026$21
IEF long31Jul 30, 2026Jul 31, 2026($12)
SPHQ long15Jul 29, 2026Jul 30, 2026$26
EDZ long219Jul 29, 2026Jul 30, 2026($521)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.