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MacroFlow Strategy

Stocks · Started Jun 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.8%
Max Drawdown
26.4%
Trades
103
Win Trades
49.5%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
64.7%

About this strategy

I develop systematic trading strategies focused on capturing global liquidity flows using disciplined Volume–Price analytics. Through MacroFlow Holdings, I design, test, and deploy quantitative models that adapt to macro market cycles across NASDAQ. My approach blends data-driven precision with risk-managed, medium-term holding structures.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20251.5-5.79.013.50.41.53.124.4
202610.911.1-17.39.314.4-3.6-19.03.7-2.7-4.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/10/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age17 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades103
# Profitable51
% Profitable49.5%
Avg trade duration0.0 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown26.4%
drawdown periodJune 02, 2026 - Oct 25, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)10.8%
Avg win$190
Avg loss$121

Ratios

W:L ratio1.63
Sharpe Ratio0.47
Sortino Ratio0.65
Calmar Ratio1.31

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.52
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life25.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-11.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity35.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss60.0%
Chance of 20% account loss31.5%
Chance of 30% account loss10.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)531
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)343

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$118
Avg Win$193
# Winners50
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,259
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,646
Num Months Winners11
# Losers53
% Winners48.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct280

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table17

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)162846.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)2714.10
Avg Trade Length113.10
Last Trade Ago60

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.85
Daily leverage (max)1.49

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta1.07
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.83
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.33
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.30
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df14
t1.26
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.87
Sortino ratio2.47
Upside Potential Ratio4.26
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms7
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error13
t(b)2.05
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.26
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df14
t1.15
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.76
Sortino ratio2.08
Upside Potential Ratio3.86
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms7
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error13
t(b)1.99
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.28
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df345
t1.37
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio9.82
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms153
N of observations346
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error344
t(b)10.50
p(b)0
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.26
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df345
t1.23
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio9.59
Upside part of mean1.56
Downside part of mean-1.31
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms193
N negative terms153
N of observations346
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error344
t(b)10.53
p(b)0
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.04
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df130
t0.14
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.97
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio8.58
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms59
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)7.62
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.92
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean0.02
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df130
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.86
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio8.39
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms59
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)7.66
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations346
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-390641120
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)145
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.08
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.71

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
OM long66Aug 17, 2026Sep 8, 2026($56)
DNLI long30Feb 19, 2026Aug 17, 2026$143
LBRT long24Feb 19, 2026Aug 17, 2026($122)
GTX long30Nov 14, 2025Aug 17, 2026$358
UNIT long46Apr 23, 2026Aug 17, 2026($88)
OUT long30Apr 13, 2026Aug 17, 2026$31
PTEN long60Apr 13, 2026Jul 16, 2026($32)
LUNR long27Jan 8, 2026Jul 16, 2026($140)
CC long32Mar 2, 2026Jul 16, 2026($5)
KOPN long100May 18, 2026Jun 25, 2026($139)
VALE long38Feb 2, 2026Jun 18, 2026($28)
HP long19Nov 14, 2025Jun 18, 2026$168
ERO long19Dec 12, 2025Jun 8, 2026$4
GERN long350Apr 13, 2026Jun 2, 2026($165)
DBRG long33Jan 5, 2026May 11, 2026$10
FOLD long54Nov 14, 2025Apr 27, 2026$283
BTU long16Oct 9, 2025Apr 2, 2026$19
SBSW long44Oct 9, 2025Mar 27, 2026($19)
NEOG long60Jan 20, 2026Mar 23, 2026($14)
TAC long28Oct 30, 2025Mar 23, 2026($161)
HUN long46Feb 19, 2026Mar 23, 2026($112)
COMP long47Dec 12, 2025Mar 16, 2026($117)
M long28Oct 9, 2025Feb 13, 2026$119
UPWK long22Dec 12, 2025Feb 13, 2026($191)
UMC long59Feb 2, 2026Feb 6, 2026$16
CNTA long18Dec 12, 2025Jan 8, 2026($78)
PBF long17Oct 9, 2025Jan 8, 2026($15)
BZ long21Oct 9, 2025Jan 5, 2026($55)
XPEV long23Nov 28, 2025Dec 12, 2025($47)
ENVX long42Oct 30, 2025Nov 14, 2025($161)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.