Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

COMM 3F MOM

Stocks · Started Mar 2025

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.2%
Max Drawdown
14.8%
Trades
77
Win Trades
41.6%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
40.0%
Subscribe $75/mo

About this strategy

This is a companion strategy to COMM 3F RTM

5/24/25: I have to split Commodity trading into 2 systems COMM 3F RTM and COMM 3F MOM because of some auto-trading restrictions. One needs to follow both to follow the system. I reduced by half the subscription price.

The back tests of the combined strategies have a return/risk profile approximately 7x better than holding the S&P. These results have not been verified by C2.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-0.1-1.1-0.31.8-0.8-1.81.8-0.9-2.81.8-2.5
20266.0-0.51.90.4-2.2-1.5-0.90.8-1.60.62.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/24/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age19 months
C2 Rank213
What it tradesStocks
# Trades77
# Profitable32
% Profitable41.6%
Avg trade duration18.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.8%
drawdown periodJuly 26, 2025 - Nov 21, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)0.2%
Avg win$1,188
Avg loss$909

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Sortino Ratio-0.13
Calmar Ratio0.19

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life32.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-31.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status-5.1%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss27.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated95.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)403
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)622
C2 Score213
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)398

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187432
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$909
Avg Win$1,188
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$40,889
Sum Trade PL (winners)$38,029
Num Months Winners9
# Losers45
% Winners41.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct5621

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)26046.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)434.11
Avg Trade Length18.10
Last Trade Ago8

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.56
Daily leverage (max)1.64

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.18
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-16.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.09
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.43
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df17
t-0.09
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio2.05
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms10
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df17
t-0.15
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.97
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms10
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.10
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df411
t-0.07
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio-0.07
Upside Potential Ratio6.77
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms188
N negative terms224
N of observations412
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error410
t(b)6.14
p(b)0
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df411
t-0.13
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.66
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms188
N negative terms224
N of observations412
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error410
t(b)6.23
p(b)0
t(a)-0.49
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.10
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.89
df130
t-1.34
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.89
Sortino ratio-2.35
Upside Potential Ratio6.03
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)3.74
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.64
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-0.10
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.91
df130
t-1.36
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Sortino ratio-2.37
Upside Potential Ratio5.99
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)3.75
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.64
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.73
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.98
Median0.99
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations412
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-410664032
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)118
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.47
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-9.98

Trading record

Placed 147 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BNO long307Oct 12, 2026Oct 22, 2026$1,065
CPER long487Sep 9, 2026Oct 15, 2026($877)
SPY long26Oct 5, 2026Oct 14, 2026($176)
SPY long26Sep 21, 2026Sep 24, 2026($276)
IAU long245Aug 7, 2026Sep 14, 2026($342)
SPY long26Sep 3, 2026Sep 9, 2026($253)
BNO long359Sep 2, 2026Sep 9, 2026$1,089
CPER long506Jul 21, 2026Sep 1, 2026($224)
SPY long26Aug 3, 2026Sep 1, 2026$100
BNO long389Jul 23, 2026Jul 27, 2026($1,722)
BNO long388Jul 22, 2026Jul 23, 2026$983
SPY long27Jun 30, 2026Jul 8, 2026($176)
SPY long27Jun 15, 2026Jun 24, 2026($612)
CANE long1946May 20, 2026Jun 15, 2026($1,212)
SPY short27Jun 10, 2026Jun 11, 2026($219)
CPER long544Apr 14, 2026Jun 8, 2026$694
VIXY short711Apr 17, 2026May 21, 2026$1,457
BITO long1881Apr 22, 2026May 18, 2026($673)
UNG short1805Apr 9, 2026May 15, 2026($714)
CORN long1057May 13, 2026May 14, 2026($410)
CORN long1080Apr 28, 2026May 7, 2026($567)
BNO long340May 4, 2026May 6, 2026($2,040)
SPY long30Apr 9, 2026May 6, 2026$1,433
SPY short30Mar 12, 2026Apr 1, 2026$278
CORN long1118Mar 5, 2026Mar 31, 2026($7)
CANE long2039Mar 18, 2026Mar 24, 2026$1,225
EEM short342Mar 5, 2026Mar 9, 2026$386
SPY short29Feb 13, 2026Feb 27, 2026($146)
SPY long29Jan 27, 2026Feb 4, 2026($382)
PALL long114Jan 23, 2026Jan 26, 2026$832

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.