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Featured Strategy QUANT AI Gold and Silver +47.1% Cumul. Return since Sep 23, 2025 Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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M8888 FX
(148973929)

Created by: M8888 M8888
Started: 08/2024
Forex
Last trade: 416 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $75.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

17.2%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(59.2%)
Max Drawdown
97
Num Trades
84.5%
Win Trades
1.5 : 1
Profit Factor
40.9%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024                                                 +10.9%+29.7%(28.7%)+13.8%(45.5%)(36.4%)
2025+43.9%+37.6%+1.9%+3.9%  -    -  (0.3%)+0.2%(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.2%)  -  +108.9%
2026(0.1%)+0.1%(0.1%)  -    -                                            

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

LiveSignal

Live broadcasts, recordings, and community highlights.
Open LiveSignal

Live Chat

Gradually we are getting out of the drawdown. Thank you for believing in my system. Have a nice day!
Great week in terms of results. We are leaving for the weekend with open positions. Thanks for believing in my system and your subscriptions. Have a great weekend.
I closed the Japanese yen position to reduce the risks of carrying over positions over the weekend. I am leaving the Swiss franc position for the weekend. Thank you for your intere...
Closed a losing position on the Japanese yen. No panic. Big profits lead to such drawdowns sooner or later, this is an axiom, unfortunately. Now I will gradually get out of the dra...
The situation is under control. No panic. We are slowly coming out of the drawdown...
Gradually we are getting out of the drawdown. I am leaving open positions for the weekend on the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Thank you for believing in my system and subscription...
Open LiveSignal

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 540 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 567 days ago.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
12/11/24 11:15 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 220 152.264 4/15/25 9:48 151.733 139.46%
Trade id #150301004
Max drawdown($8,783)
Time1/10/25 0:00
Quant open19
Worst price158.877
Drawdown as % of equity-139.46%
 $730.47
12/6/24 8:31 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 90 1.27942 12/6 9:31 1.27734 1.08%
Trade id #150262938
Max drawdown($137)
Time12/6/24 8:39
Quant open6
Worst price1.28113
Drawdown as % of equity-1.08%
 $187.20
12/5/24 9:32 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 30 1.27650 12/5 10:39 1.27386 0.14%
Trade id #150250688
Max drawdown($17)
Time12/5/24 9:41
Quant open3
Worst price1.27709
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 $79.20
12/2/24 0:46 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 360 1.26759 12/5 2:57 1.27018 5.48%
Trade id #150218848
Max drawdown($651)
Time12/4/24 0:00
Quant open15
Worst price1.26295
Drawdown as % of equity-5.48%
 $931.30
12/3/24 2:48 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 50 0.88657 12/3 4:52 0.88531 0.28%
Trade id #150229159
Max drawdown($32)
Time12/3/24 3:15
Quant open5
Worst price0.88715
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 $79.61
11/29/24 1:27 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 120 1.27239 11/29 3:15 1.27008 2.29%
Trade id #150205752
Max drawdown($256)
Time11/29/24 2:26
Quant open9
Worst price1.27499
Drawdown as % of equity-2.29%
 $277.40
11/28/24 2:38 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 10 1.26495 11/28 11:03 1.26835 0.04%
Trade id #150200368
Max drawdown($4)
Time11/28/24 3:04
Quant open1
Worst price1.26449
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $34.00
11/27/24 1:43 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 100 151.747 11/27 22:50 151.620 7.68%
Trade id #150191593
Max drawdown($836)
Time11/27/24 11:50
Quant open8
Worst price150.453
Drawdown as % of equity-7.68%
 ($79.73)
11/13/24 4:20 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 300 1.26390 11/27 11:52 1.26549 14.65%
Trade id #150072409
Max drawdown($1,374)
Time11/22/24 0:00
Quant open7
Worst price1.24869
Drawdown as % of equity-14.65%
 $478.70
11/19/24 9:06 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 180 153.838 11/26 19:42 153.044 11.61%
Trade id #150121046
Max drawdown($1,116)
Time11/20/24 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price155.887
Drawdown as % of equity-11.61%
 $893.11
11/19/24 4:03 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 50 153.773 11/19 8:47 153.606 1.54%
Trade id #150119273
Max drawdown($141)
Time11/19/24 7:48
Quant open5
Worst price154.211
Drawdown as % of equity-1.54%
 $52.05
11/19/24 0:09 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 30 154.372 11/19 3:43 153.537 0.59%
Trade id #150118621
Max drawdown($55)
Time11/19/24 2:43
Quant open3
Worst price154.657
Drawdown as % of equity-0.59%
 $156.52
10/24/24 20:41 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 180 152.218 11/5 21:59 152.651 13.71%
Trade id #149823981
Max drawdown($1,354)
Time10/29/24 0:00
Quant open12
Worst price153.865
Drawdown as % of equity-13.71%
 ($487.07)
10/28/24 11:07 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 30 0.86506 10/28 11:07 0.86522 0.06%
Trade id #149864702
Max drawdown($6)
Time10/28/24 11:07
Quant open3
Worst price0.86522
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($6.07)
10/24/24 2:17 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 40 0.86620 10/28 11:07 0.86523 0.95%
Trade id #149814573
Max drawdown($87)
Time10/28/24 1:12
Quant open2
Worst price0.86999
Drawdown as % of equity-0.95%
 $49.03
10/24/24 2:50 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 120 152.079 10/24 19:05 151.881 1.13%
Trade id #149814790
Max drawdown($116)
Time10/24/24 9:45
Quant open7
Worst price152.331
Drawdown as % of equity-1.13%
 $148.58
10/20/24 22:14 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 190 150.016 10/23 7:36 152.939 34.5%
Trade id #149719870
Max drawdown($3,640)
Time10/23/24 7:34
Quant open19
Worst price152.943
Drawdown as % of equity-34.50%
 ($3,470.27)
10/17/24 9:41 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 40 0.86479 10/21 3:09 0.86533 0.72%
Trade id #149684170
Max drawdown($99)
Time10/18/24 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price0.86694
Drawdown as % of equity-0.72%
 ($27.42)
10/17/24 5:23 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 200 149.823 10/18 7:14 149.897 1.91%
Trade id #149682523
Max drawdown($267)
Time10/18/24 4:04
Quant open12
Worst price150.158
Drawdown as % of equity-1.91%
 ($92.50)
10/17/24 2:47 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 30 0.86650 10/17 6:38 0.86495 0.08%
Trade id #149681497
Max drawdown($11)
Time10/17/24 3:00
Quant open3
Worst price0.86683
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 $58.63
10/16/24 2:21 GBP/USD GBP/USD SHORT 160 1.30088 10/17 0:58 1.29943 1.38%
Trade id #149670218
Max drawdown($190)
Time10/16/24 8:27
Quant open7
Worst price1.30377
Drawdown as % of equity-1.38%
 $231.50
10/10/24 9:53 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 100 0.85969 10/16 2:26 0.86040 1.51%
Trade id #149627558
Max drawdown($204)
Time10/15/24 0:00
Quant open3
Worst price0.86368
Drawdown as % of equity-1.51%
 ($89.21)
10/15/24 12:00 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 50 1.30703 10/16 2:20 1.30083 2.41%
Trade id #149664745
Max drawdown($341)
Time10/16/24 2:15
Quant open5
Worst price1.30020
Drawdown as % of equity-2.41%
 ($310.20)
10/15/24 10:32 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 10 1.30817 10/15 11:03 1.30936 0.04%
Trade id #149663147
Max drawdown($5)
Time10/15/24 10:37
Quant open1
Worst price1.30766
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $11.95
10/15/24 7:56 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 20 1.30784 10/15 9:12 1.30870 0.05%
Trade id #149661177
Max drawdown($6)
Time10/15/24 8:01
Quant open1
Worst price1.30742
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $17.10
10/15/24 6:43 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 50 1.30817 10/15 7:45 1.30891 0.16%
Trade id #149660725
Max drawdown($22)
Time10/15/24 7:25
Quant open5
Worst price1.30772
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 $36.80
10/15/24 5:28 GBP/USD GBP/USD LONG 50 1.30772 10/15 6:32 1.30940 0.26%
Trade id #149660435
Max drawdown($36)
Time10/15/24 5:44
Quant open5
Worst price1.30699
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
 $84.00
10/10/24 21:10 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 120 149.162 10/15 5:58 149.062 2.72%
Trade id #149634196
Max drawdown($368)
Time10/15/24 0:35
Quant open9
Worst price149.755
Drawdown as % of equity-2.72%
 $75.18
10/10/24 8:44 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 190 148.739 10/10 20:59 148.555 1.16%
Trade id #149626324
Max drawdown($158)
Time10/10/24 13:14
Quant open7
Worst price149.082
Drawdown as % of equity-1.16%
 $218.06
10/10/24 7:00 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 110 149.030 10/10 8:30 148.815 1.14%
Trade id #149625482
Max drawdown($154)
Time10/10/24 8:30
Quant open4
Worst price149.546
Drawdown as % of equity-1.14%
 $147.71

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    8/20/2024
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $10,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    647.72
  • Age
    22 months ago
  • What it trades
    Forex
  • # Trades
    97
  • # Profitable
    82
  • % Profitable
    84.50%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.3 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    59.25%
  • drawdown period
    Oct 02, 2024 - Dec 26, 2024
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    17.2%
  • Avg win
    $159.62
  • Avg loss
    $597.00
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $14,130
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $14,130
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.46:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.47
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.65
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.667
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -2.78%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.03080
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    35.50%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    17.2%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    10.40%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    0.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.93%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.172%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    1.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    21.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    73.50%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    44.50%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    1.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    15.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $597
  • Avg Win
    $160
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $8,955.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    22
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $13,089.000
  • # Winners
    82
  • Num Months Winners
    12
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    15
  • % Winners
    84.5%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    3313.98
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    55.23
  • Avg Trade Length
    2.3 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    410
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    9.10
  • Daily leverage (max)
    32.10
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.09
  • Beta
    -0.10
  • Treynor Index
    -0.82
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.04
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.53
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.03
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.06
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    7.707
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    1.524
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.259
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.130
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.60965
  • SD
    0.91540
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.66599
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.62333
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    0.69319
  • p
    0.40189
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.24885
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.55403
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.27618
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.52284
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.60133
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.99657
  • Upside part of mean
    1.14084
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.53119
  • Upside SD
    0.81211
  • Downside SD
    0.38071
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    7.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18948
  • Mean of criterion
    0.60965
  • SD of predictor
    0.16290
  • SD of criterion
    0.91540
  • Covariance
    0.01190
  • r
    0.07981
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.44845
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.52468
  • Mean Square Error
    0.90831
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    0.26554
  • p(b)
    0.39775
  • t(a)
    0.54092
  • p(a)
    0.29967
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.26868
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.16559
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.61021
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.65956
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.35944
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.52468
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29167
  • SD
    0.78640
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.37089
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.34714
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    0.38604
  • p
    0.44462
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.52545
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.25210
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.54105
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.23532
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.65468
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.04450
  • Upside part of mean
    0.91085
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.61918
  • Upside SD
    0.61600
  • Downside SD
    0.44551
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    7.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17554
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29167
  • SD of predictor
    0.16211
  • SD of criterion
    0.78640
  • Covariance
    0.01039
  • r
    0.08152
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.39544
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.22226
  • Mean Square Error
    0.67016
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    0.27126
  • p(b)
    0.39561
  • t(a)
    0.26871
  • p(a)
    0.39656
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.81315
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.60403
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.59819
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.04270
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.73759
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.22226
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.29468
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.35631
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.10531
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.22071
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.71684
  • Quartile 1
    0.99865
  • Median
    1.00103
  • Quartile 3
    1.04156
  • Maximum
    1.78813
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.86016
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00007
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.02208
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.39455
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04291
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.15385
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.72223
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15385
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.54149
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    2.83159
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.13564
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.33982
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05031
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.10669
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00465
  • Quartile 1
    0.12309
  • Median
    0.24153
  • Quartile 3
    0.35997
  • Maximum
    0.47841
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00465
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.47841
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.23688
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.38188
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.37655
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.78708
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.78708
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.05679
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.50160
  • SD
    0.63940
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.78448
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.78245
  • df
    289.00000
  • t
    0.82534
  • p
    0.20493
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.08021
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.64787
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.08159
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.64648
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.09522
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.09154
  • Upside part of mean
    2.33187
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.83027
  • Upside SD
    0.44567
  • Downside SD
    0.45799
  • N nonnegative terms
    140.00000
  • N negative terms
    150.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    290.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.24929
  • Mean of criterion
    0.50160
  • SD of predictor
    0.22099
  • SD of criterion
    0.63940
  • Covariance
    -0.00370
  • r
    -0.02616
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.07568
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.52000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.40997
  • DF error
    288.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.44403
  • p(b)
    0.67132
  • t(a)
    0.85312
  • p(a)
    0.19715
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.41112
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.25977
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.68031
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.72123
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -6.62820
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.52046
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.28462
  • SD
    0.67301
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.42291
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.42181
  • df
    289.00000
  • t
    0.44493
  • p
    0.32835
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.44068
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.28584
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.44145
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.28507
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.54012
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.25222
  • Upside part of mean
    2.24075
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.95613
  • Upside SD
    0.41713
  • Downside SD
    0.52696
  • N nonnegative terms
    140.00000
  • N negative terms
    150.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    290.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22540
  • Mean of criterion
    0.28462
  • SD of predictor
    0.21720
  • SD of criterion
    0.67301
  • Covariance
    -0.00321
  • r
    -0.02199
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.06814
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.29998
  • Mean Square Error
    0.45429
  • DF error
    288.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.37326
  • p(b)
    0.64538
  • t(a)
    0.46728
  • p(a)
    0.32033
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.42742
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.29115
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.96357
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.56352
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -4.17725
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.29998
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.06509
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08108
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01576
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03659
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    290.00000
  • Minimum
    0.64626
  • Quartile 1
    0.99965
  • Median
    1.00008
  • Quartile 3
    1.00580
  • Maximum
    1.23812
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97255
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99990
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00094
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03464
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00615
  • Number outliers low
    32.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11034
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.94040
  • Number of outliers high
    41.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14138
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.05391
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    1.39866
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01084
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.50985
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02029
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06120
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00130
  • Quartile 1
    0.00224
  • Median
    0.00448
  • Quartile 3
    0.00557
  • Maximum
    0.55030
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00177
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00448
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00557
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.55030
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00333
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.55030
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.37339
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.36688
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.66668
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.66668
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.52467
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.03968
  • SD
    0.02413
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.64474
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.63524
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.16301
  • p
    0.55074
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.42061
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.13729
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.41416
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.14369
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.25929
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.28083
  • Upside part of mean
    0.04006
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.07974
  • Upside SD
    0.01659
  • Downside SD
    0.01756
  • N nonnegative terms
    39.00000
  • N negative terms
    92.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.67363
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.03968
  • SD of predictor
    0.22567
  • SD of criterion
    0.02413
  • Covariance
    0.00005
  • r
    0.01003
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00107
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.04040
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00059
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.11396
  • p(b)
    0.49361
  • t(a)
    -1.15997
  • p(a)
    0.56457
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01755
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01970
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10932
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.02851
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -36.99500
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.04040
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.03997
  • SD
    0.02413
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.65672
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.64714
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.17148
  • p
    0.55110
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.43269
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.12554
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.42617
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.13189
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.26400
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.26117
  • Upside part of mean
    0.03992
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.07989
  • Upside SD
    0.01649
  • Downside SD
    0.01765
  • N nonnegative terms
    39.00000
  • N negative terms
    92.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.64847
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.03997
  • SD of predictor
    0.21897
  • SD of criterion
    0.02413
  • Covariance
    0.00005
  • r
    0.01025
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00113
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.04070
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00059
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.11639
  • p(b)
    0.49348
  • t(a)
    -1.16885
  • p(a)
    0.56506
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.06500
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01806
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02032
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10960
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.02819
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -35.40100
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.04070
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00260
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00322
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00085
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00187
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98844
  • Quartile 1
    0.99982
  • Median
    0.99998
  • Quartile 3
    1.00015
  • Maximum
    1.01169
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99915
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99990
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00006
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00071
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00033
  • Number outliers low
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06870
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99783
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00358
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    1.00040
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00036
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    2.87322
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00088
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00350
  • Quartile 1
    0.00657
  • Median
    0.00963
  • Quartile 3
    0.01270
  • Maximum
    0.01577
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00350
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.01577
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00613
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -374726000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    85
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.01203
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.01199
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.76050
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.76050
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -3.72179

Strategy Description

Hello,

1) Trading experience since 2006. Experience in managing a fund of 20 million USD. The plan and goal for the future is to open a hedge fund.
2) My public verified trading results | 2011 + 12.11% | 2012 + 105.51% | 2013 + 272.49% | 2014 + 182.49% | 2015 + 121.17% | 2016 + 65.57% | 2017 + 18.24% | 2018 + 88.6% | 2019 +16.5%.
3) Manual trading is based on the use of advanced mathematical algorithms that generate accurate entry and exit signals, as well as on the analysis of intraday currency futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).
4) Trading is carried out both on a trend and on a reversal, on GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF currency pairs.
5) Each trade is protected by stop loss.
6) Not a martingale.

It is important to know when connecting my system “M8888 FX” (Forex) to autotrade:

1) If your trading account is more than 50,000 USD, then it will be more profitable for you to subscribe to my M8888 system, where trading in currency futures on the CME exchange and less commission. I considered that with my turnover per year, the savings on commission is 3-4% per annum than when trading on the forex market M8888 FX.
2) Attention! I recommend that subscribers in the settings set the maximum risk parameters per month no more than 10-15-20%. Be sure to do this.

Useful recommendations when copying my system “M8888 FX” (Forex):

1) Do not idealize the results of my trading. Stable every month for a long period of time, at least over a period of several years, you are unlikely to receive a plus every month, this is not a bank deposit. There will be periods of subsidence, since everything in this world is cyclical and the results in trading are no exception, after growth always follows a decline or for some time there is a stagnation in growth and this should be perceived normally.
2) Diversify your savings - do not put all your eggs in one basket.
3) Constantly and continuously monitor the results, it is desirable to do this several times a week, so you will be calmer.
4) Understand that profitability is not linear, it is not a bank deposit, that income received in the past cannot serve as a guarantee of receiving such income in the future.
5) Do not worry and don’t share your feelings with me about where the market will go or what you think is wrong at the moment (I don’t have a psychological session service), because there is a stop loss for every deal , there is a risk limit. Excessive anxiety only ruins the result.
6) There are periods, several trading sessions, several trading weeks when there is no trading activity, this is normal. Permanent presence in the market and constant trading in no way affects the better profit, does not make it anymore, sometimes just a few trading sessions make the result for a whole month. You need to be able to wait, work out only clear signals and then the result will be much better.
7) There is a possibility that you may lose some or all of your investments and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

September 11, 2024
Michael

LiveSignal

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Live Chat

Gradually we are getting out of the drawdown. Thank you for believing in my system. Have a nice day!
Great week in terms of results. We are leaving for the weekend with open positions. Thanks for believing in my system and your subscriptions. Have a great weekend.
I closed the Japanese yen position to reduce the risks of carrying over positions over the weekend. I am leaving the Swiss franc position for the weekend. Thank you for your intere...
Closed a losing position on the Japanese yen. No panic. Big profits lead to such drawdowns sooner or later, this is an axiom, unfortunately. Now I will gradually get out of the dra...
The situation is under control. No panic. We are slowly coming out of the drawdown...
Gradually we are getting out of the drawdown. I am leaving open positions for the weekend on the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Thank you for believing in my system and subscription...
Open LiveSignal

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2024-08-20
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
# Trades
97
# Profitable
82
% Profitable
84.5%
Correlation S&P500
-0.031
Sharpe Ratio
0.47
Sortino Ratio
0.65
Beta
-0.10
Alpha
0.09
Leverage
9.10 Average
32.10 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

subscribed on started simulation

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.