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M8888 FX

Forex · Started Aug 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.0%
Max Drawdown
59.2%
Trades
97
Win Trades
84.5%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
40.7%

About this strategy

Hello,

1) Trading experience since 2006. Experience in managing a fund of 20 million USD. The plan and goal for the future is to open a hedge fund.
2) My public verified trading results | 2011 + 12.11% | 2012 + 105.51% | 2013 + 272.49% | 2014 + 182.49% | 2015 + 121.17% | 2016 + 65.57% | 2017 + 18.24% | 2018 + 88.6% | 2019 +16.5%.
3) Manual trading is based on the use of advanced mathematical algorithms that generate accurate entry and exit signals, as well as on the analysis of intraday currency futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).
4) Trading is carried out both on a trend and on a reversal, on GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF currency pairs.
5) Each trade is protected by stop loss.
6) Not a martingale.

It is important to know when connecting my system “M8888 FX” (Forex) to autotrade:

1) If your trading account is more than 50,000 USD, then it will be more profitable for you to subscribe to my M8888 system, where trading in currency futures on the CME exchange and less commission. I considered that with my turnover per year, the savings on commission is 3-4% per annum than when trading on the forex market M8888 FX.
2) Attention! I recommend that subscribers in the settings set the maximum risk parameters per month no more than 10-15-20%. Be sure to do this.

Useful recommendations when copying my system “M8888 FX” (Forex):

1) Do not idealize the results of my trading. Stable every month for a long period of time, at least over a period of several years, you are unlikely to receive a plus every month, this is not a bank deposit. There will be periods of subsidence, since everything in this world is cyclical and the results in trading are no exception, after growth always follows a decline or for some time there is a stagnation in growth and this should be perceived normally.
2) Diversify your savings - do not put all your eggs in one basket.
3) Constantly and continuously monitor the results, it is desirable to do this several times a week, so you will be calmer.
4) Understand that profitability is not linear, it is not a bank deposit, that income received in the past cannot serve as a guarantee of receiving such income in the future.
5) Do not worry and don’t share your feelings with me about where the market will go or what you think is wrong at the moment (I don’t have a psychological session service), because there is a stop loss for every deal , there is a risk limit. Excessive anxiety only ruins the result.
6) There are periods, several trading sessions, several trading weeks when there is no trading activity, this is normal. Permanent presence in the market and constant trading in no way affects the better profit, does not make it anymore, sometimes just a few trading sessions make the result for a whole month. You need to be able to wait, work out only clear signals and then the result will be much better.
7) There is a possibility that you may lose some or all of your investments and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

September 11, 2024
Michael

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202410.929.7-28.713.8-45.5-36.4
202543.937.61.93.90.00.0-0.30.2-0.1-0.1-0.20.0108.9
2026-0.10.1-0.10.0-0.0-0.1-0.00.10.1-0.1-0.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/20/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age26 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades97
# Profitable82
% Profitable84.5%
Avg trade duration2.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown59.2%
drawdown periodOct 02, 2024 - Dec 26, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)14.0%
Avg win$160
Avg loss$597

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.42
Sortino Ratio0.58
Calmar Ratio0.65

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life36.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-6.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)17.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss73.5%
Chance of 40% account loss44.5%
Chance of 50% account loss15.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)454
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$597
Avg Win$160
# Winners82
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,955
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,089
Num Months Winners14
# Losers15
% Winners84.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table27

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3313.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)55.23
Avg Trade Length2.30
Last Trade Ago547

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)9.10
Daily leverage (max)32.10

Regression

Alpha0.07
Beta-0.10
Treynor Index-0.70

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.71
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.53
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD0.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df12
t0.69
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio1.60
Upside Potential Ratio3.00
Upside part of mean1.14
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.81
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms7
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.92
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.91
DF error11
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.66
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.29
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df12
t0.39
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio0.65
Upside Potential Ratio2.04
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms7
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.67
DF error11
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.04
Treynor index (mean / b)0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.29
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.36
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
Mean0.49
SD0.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df297
t0.82
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.61
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio5.03
Upside part of mean2.27
Downside part of mean-1.78
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms156
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.63
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.51
Mean Square Error0.40
DF error296
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.67
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
Mean0.28
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df297
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio0.53
Upside Potential Ratio4.20
Upside part of mean2.18
Downside part of mean-1.91
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms156
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.44
DF error296
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.47
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.04
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.60
df130
t-1.14
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio-2.22
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.49
t(a)-1.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.71
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.04
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.61
df130
t-1.15
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio-2.22
Upside Potential Ratio2.41
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.49
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.87
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.79
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.39
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.72
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations298
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.12
Median0.24
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.55
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-410787584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)85
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.06
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.44
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.52

Trading record

Placed 540 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY short220Dec 11, 2024Apr 15, 2025$746
GBP/USD short90Dec 6, 2024Dec 6, 2024$187
GBP/USD short30Dec 5, 2024Dec 5, 2024$79
GBP/USD long360Dec 2, 2024Dec 5, 2024$931
USD/CHF short50Dec 3, 2024Dec 3, 2024$76
GBP/USD short120Nov 29, 2024Nov 29, 2024$277
GBP/USD long10Nov 28, 2024Nov 28, 2024$34
USD/JPY long100Nov 27, 2024Nov 27, 2024($81)
GBP/USD long300Nov 13, 2024Nov 27, 2024$479
USD/JPY short180Nov 19, 2024Nov 26, 2024$911
USD/JPY short50Nov 19, 2024Nov 19, 2024$53
USD/JPY short30Nov 19, 2024Nov 19, 2024$160
USD/JPY short180Oct 24, 2024Nov 5, 2024($497)
USD/CHF short30Oct 28, 2024Oct 28, 2024($6)
USD/CHF short40Oct 24, 2024Oct 28, 2024$47
USD/JPY short120Oct 24, 2024Oct 24, 2024$152
USD/JPY short190Oct 20, 2024Oct 23, 2024($3,542)
USD/CHF short40Oct 17, 2024Oct 21, 2024($26)
USD/JPY short200Oct 17, 2024Oct 18, 2024($94)
USD/CHF short30Oct 17, 2024Oct 17, 2024$56
GBP/USD short160Oct 16, 2024Oct 17, 2024$231
USD/CHF short100Oct 10, 2024Oct 16, 2024($86)
GBP/USD long50Oct 15, 2024Oct 16, 2024($310)
GBP/USD long10Oct 15, 2024Oct 15, 2024$12
GBP/USD long20Oct 15, 2024Oct 15, 2024$17
GBP/USD long50Oct 15, 2024Oct 15, 2024$37
GBP/USD long50Oct 15, 2024Oct 15, 2024$84
USD/JPY short120Oct 10, 2024Oct 15, 2024$77
USD/JPY short190Oct 10, 2024Oct 10, 2024$223
USD/JPY short110Oct 10, 2024Oct 10, 2024$151

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.