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Stocks Master

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
70.1%
Max Drawdown
47.7%
Trades
394
Win Trades
54.6%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
33.3%

About this strategy

This strategy is flexible, allowing trades to open and close daily, weekly, or monthly based on market trends and signals.

The main goal is to make steady profits over time by adjusting to different market conditions.

It focuses on smart entry and exit points to take advantage of short-term opportunities while keeping a long-term growth plan in mind.

The strategy aims to achieve consistent returns by carefully balancing risk and reward, building a strong and reliable trading track record.

Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202412.86.60.05.3-10.912.8
2025-2.2-15.4-23.055.918.54.413.81.112.10.00.00.058.6
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/11/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age27 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades394
# Profitable215
% Profitable54.6%
Avg trade duration6.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.6%
drawdown periodNov 08, 2024 - April 04, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)70.1%
Avg win$246
Avg loss$178

Ratios

W:L ratio1.67
Sharpe Ratio0.77
Sortino Ratio1.37
Calmar Ratio2.56

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life44.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)56.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)70.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)32.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss85.0%
Chance of 20% account loss55.5%
Chance of 30% account loss18.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated46.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$178
Avg Win$246
# Winners215
Sum Trade PL (losers)$31,925
Sum Trade PL (winners)$52,902
Num Months Winners10
# Losers179
% Winners54.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct338

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table27

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8900.82
Avg Position Time (hrs)148.35
Avg Trade Length6.20
Last Trade Ago404

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.69
Daily leverage (max)2.66

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.49
Treynor Index0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.10
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.77
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.32

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df7
t0.48
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio1.14
Upside Potential Ratio2.96
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.63
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance0.04
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.64
DF error6
t(b)0.92
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.21
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df7
t0.23
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio2.26
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms3
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.06
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.50
DF error6
t(b)1.31
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean0.95
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.83
df189
t1.57
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio3.52
Upside Potential Ratio10.79
Upside part of mean2.91
Downside part of mean-1.96
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms97
N of observations190
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.95
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.04
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error188
t(b)4.52
p(b)0.34
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
Mean0.82
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.63
df189
t1.39
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.94
Sortino ratio2.93
Upside Potential Ratio10.07
Upside part of mean2.82
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms97
N of observations190
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.82
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.04
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error188
t(b)4.43
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)1.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.99
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df130
t1.15
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.39
Sortino ratio3.11
Upside Potential Ratio10.95
Upside part of mean3.48
Downside part of mean-2.49
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.99
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.05
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error129
t(b)3.44
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.43
Treynor index (mean / b)1.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.79
Mean0.81
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df130
t0.97
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio2.45
Upside Potential Ratio10.16
Upside part of mean3.36
Downside part of mean-2.55
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.04
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.64
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error129
t(b)3.35
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.24
Treynor index (mean / b)1.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.75
Quartile 10.93
Median1.06
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.77
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.31
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations190
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.39
Quartile 10.39
Median0.39
Quartile 30.39
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.65
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.47
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-331032800
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)147
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal22.73
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.87

Trading record

Placed 244 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PLTR long276Apr 4, 2025Sep 18, 2025$27,602
PLTR long243Apr 3, 2025Apr 3, 2025($265)
TSLA long49Apr 2, 2025Apr 3, 2025($344)
PLTR long237Apr 3, 2025Apr 3, 2025($22)
PLTR long241Apr 1, 2025Apr 2, 2025$593
TSLA long51Apr 1, 2025Apr 2, 2025($188)
PLTR long240Apr 1, 2025Apr 1, 2025($226)
PLTR long241Apr 1, 2025Apr 1, 2025($32)
PLTR long244Mar 31, 2025Mar 31, 2025($227)
PLTR long247Mar 31, 2025Mar 31, 2025($274)
PLTR long243Mar 31, 2025Mar 31, 2025($44)
TSLA short236Mar 11, 2025Mar 12, 2025($2,874)
MRVL short210Mar 11, 2025Mar 12, 2025($413)
COIN short33Mar 11, 2025Mar 12, 2025($255)
COIN short33Mar 11, 2025Mar 11, 2025($66)
COIN short34Mar 11, 2025Mar 11, 2025($114)
COIN long36Mar 11, 2025Mar 11, 2025$56
TSLA short61Mar 10, 2025Mar 11, 2025($18)
TSLA short61Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($8)
COIN long72Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($141)
TSLA short61Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025$59
COIN long71Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($63)
TSLA short59Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025$226
COIN long71Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($89)
TSLA short32Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($40)
COIN long36Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025$40
TSLA long28Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($6)
TSLA short28Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($17)
COIN short36Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($107)
COIN long36Mar 10, 2025Mar 10, 2025($24)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.