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TRENDALERT

Stocks · Started Aug 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
108.5%
Max Drawdown
67.4%
Trades
70
Win Trades
60.0%
Profit Factor
4.90
Win Months
44.4%

About this strategy

TRENDALERT
A HIGH-GROWTH TACTICAL EQUITY STRATEGY
ONCE A HIGH-RISK “HYDRA” SYSTEM WITH HUGE UPSIDE, THIS STRATEGY HAS NOW BEEN OPTIMIZED TO REDUCE DRAWDOWNS WHILE KEEPING ITS AGGRESSIVE GROWTH POTENTIAL INTACT. WITH 190% HISTORICAL RETURNS, IT DELIVERS CLEAR, RULE-BASED SIGNALS AND TACTICAL FLEXIBILITY, LETTING TRADERS CAPTURE OPPORTUNITIES WHILE MANAGING RISK. PERFECT FOR INVESTORS WHO WANT EXPLOSIVE GROWTH WITHOUT BEING AT THE MERCY OF A BLACK-BOX SYSTEM.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202458.03.04.90.52.876.2
2025-5.0-4.6-37.449.654.528.1-0.116.24.812.221.70.0179.2
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/5/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age26 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades70
# Profitable42
% Profitable60.0%
Avg trade duration4.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown67.4%
drawdown periodDec 26, 2024 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)108.5%
Avg win$1,857
Avg loss$570

Ratios

W:L ratio4.90
Sharpe Ratio1.12
Sortino Ratio2.19
Calmar Ratio2.74

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.37
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life50.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)343.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)108.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)107.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss71.5%
Chance of 20% account loss52.0%
Chance of 30% account loss32.5%
Chance of 40% account loss20.5%
Chance of 50% account loss8.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$570
Avg Win$1,857
# Winners42
Sum Trade PL (losers)$15,964
Sum Trade PL (winners)$77,977
Num Months Winners12
# Losers28
% Winners60.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct304

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table27

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6678.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)111.31
Avg Trade Length4.60
Last Trade Ago318

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.34
Daily leverage (max)4.57

Regression

Alpha0.16
Beta1.43
Treynor Index0.16

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.16
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.06
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.54
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats42.82
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.50
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.94

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.45
SD1.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df17
t1.59
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.89
Sortino ratio3.89
Upside Potential Ratio5.10
Upside part of mean1.90
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD1.10
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms8
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion1.45
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion1.11
Covariance0.08
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.87
Mean Square Error1.14
DF error16
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.31
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.87
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.87
Mean0.95
SD0.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df17
t1.27
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio2.07
Upside Potential Ratio3.25
Upside part of mean1.49
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.81
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms8
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.95
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.92
Covariance0.07
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.72
DF error16
t(b)1.94
p(b)0.28
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.37
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean1.20
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.63
df392
t2.01
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.24
Sortino ratio3.17
Upside Potential Ratio8.53
Upside part of mean3.24
Downside part of mean-2.04
Upside SD0.63
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms145
N negative terms248
N of observations393
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion1.20
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.05
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.85
Mean Square Error0.47
DF error391
t(b)7.64
p(b)0
t(a)1.52
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.96
Treynor index (mean / b)0.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.85
Mean0.95
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df392
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.97
Sortino ratio2.34
Upside Potential Ratio7.55
Upside part of mean3.07
Downside part of mean-2.12
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms145
N negative terms248
N of observations393
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.95
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.05
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.62
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error391
t(b)8.20
p(b)0
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.66
Treynor index (mean / b)0.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.62
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.80
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.17
df130
t1.54
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.95
Sortino ratio5.58
Upside Potential Ratio11.02
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.80
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.72
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.39
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)3.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.72
Mean0.73
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.09
df130
t1.49
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.88
Sortino ratio5.04
Upside Potential Ratio10.45
Upside part of mean1.52
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.66
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)1.37
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.64
Treynor index (mean / b)3.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.66
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.61
Quartile 11
Median1.04
Quartile 31.15
Maximum1.90
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.50
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.61
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.90
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.53
Number of observations393
Minimum0.78
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low42
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.55
Quartile 10.55
Median0.55
Quartile 30.55
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.47
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-572301888
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)103
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.51
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.96
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.04

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CURE long840Aug 4, 2025Nov 18, 2025$30,789
SOXL long3000May 20, 2025Jun 6, 2025$5,909
CONL long1890Mar 14, 2025May 15, 2025$20,555
SQQQ long630Mar 10, 2025Mar 14, 2025($172)
TQQQ long409.5Mar 7, 2025Mar 10, 2025($2,324)
TQQQ long437.85Mar 4, 2025Mar 6, 2025($2,443)
TQQQ long333.9Feb 26, 2025Feb 26, 2025($994)
TQQQ long330.75Feb 11, 2025Feb 21, 2025($349)
TQQQ long315Feb 5, 2025Feb 7, 2025($452)
SVIX long945Jan 28, 2025Feb 5, 2025($134)
UDOW long189Jan 17, 2025Jan 27, 2025$103
TQQQ long157.5Jan 13, 2025Jan 14, 2025($200)
UDOW long220.815Dec 20, 2024Jan 2, 2025($1,131)
SOXL long630Dec 13, 2024Dec 16, 2024$1,441
TQQQ long318.78Dec 6, 2024Dec 9, 2024($633)
SOXL long708.75Nov 22, 2024Dec 5, 2024$593
SOXL long630Nov 18, 2024Nov 20, 2024($884)
SOXL long425.25Nov 5, 2024Nov 6, 2024$985
TQQQ long305.55Oct 23, 2024Oct 30, 2024$1,504
TQQQ long305.55Oct 16, 2024Oct 23, 2024($454)
TQQQ long214.2Oct 7, 2024Oct 15, 2024$494
SQQQ long81.9Oct 7, 2024Oct 7, 2024$2
TQQQ long78.75Sep 30, 2024Oct 1, 2024($270)
TQQQ long176.4Sep 30, 2024Sep 30, 2024$139
TQQQ long176.085Sep 26, 2024Sep 27, 2024$37
CONL long724.5Sep 26, 2024Sep 26, 2024$1,570
CONL long693Sep 24, 2024Sep 25, 2024($418)
CONL long693Sep 24, 2024Sep 24, 2024$254
SOXL long362.25Sep 23, 2024Sep 24, 2024$241
CONL long488.25Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024$140

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.