Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Cryptoverse Followed by live capital $1.80 million Hypothetical

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Schulenberg SPYPRED5 MES
(148825216)

Created by: CraigSchulenberg CraigSchulenberg
Started: 08/2024
Futures
Last trade: 5 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $150.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

3.5%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(5.2%)
Max Drawdown
165
Num Trades
33.9%
Win Trades
1.3 : 1
Profit Factor
40.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024                                                 +6.3%+0.8%(1.6%)(0.7%)(1.1%)+3.5%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 96 hours.

Trading Record

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
12/15/24 18:00 @MESH5 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6125.00 12/17 23:12 6131.00 0.37%
Trade id #150328926
Max drawdown($193)
Time12/16/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6163.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
 ($31)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
12/13/24 8:03 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 6083.75 12/15 18:00 6054.25 0.41%
Trade id #150317525
Max drawdown($212)
Time12/13/24 12:57
Quant open1
Worst price6041.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
 ($149)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
12/9/24 8:25 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6095.25 12/13 8:03 6083.75 0.07%
Trade id #150277294
Max drawdown($36)
Time12/11/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6102.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $57
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
12/5/24 22:59 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 6082.75 12/8 18:00 6095.75 0.07%
Trade id #150260813
Max drawdown($35)
Time12/6/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6075.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $64
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
12/4/24 22:43 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6095.50 12/5 22:58 6082.75 0.31%
Trade id #150248263
Max drawdown($160)
Time12/5/24 18:09
Quant open2
Worst price6079.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
 ($130)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
12/3/24 23:20 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6070.50 12/4 22:43 6095.50 0.3%
Trade id #150238524
Max drawdown($158)
Time12/4/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6102.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
 ($126)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
12/2/24 22:32 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6065.25 12/3 22:49 6069.50 0.34%
Trade id #150228449
Max drawdown($177)
Time12/3/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price6047.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
 $41
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/26/24 23:22 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6038.25 12/2 22:32 6065.25 0.29%
Trade id #150191261
Max drawdown($151)
Time12/2/24 15:29
Quant open1
Worst price6068.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 ($136)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/25/24 22:49 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6007.50 11/26 23:22 6038.25 0.6%
Trade id #150175253
Max drawdown($312)
Time11/26/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price5976.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.60%
 $306
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/24/24 20:22 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6013.50 11/25 22:49 6007.50 0.25%
Trade id #150163215
Max drawdown($132)
Time11/25/24 9:42
Quant open1
Worst price6040.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 $29
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/24/24 20:08 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6014.50 11/24 20:22 6013.50 0.02%
Trade id #150163159
Max drawdown($10)
Time11/24/24 20:13
Quant open2
Worst price6013.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($12)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/19/24 22:50 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5942.50 11/24 18:00 6007.75 0.64%
Trade id #150128724
Max drawdown($333)
Time11/24/24 18:00
Quant open1
Worst price6009.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.64%
 ($327)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/19/24 14:17 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5940.75 11/19 19:01 5945.50 0.05%
Trade id #150125773
Max drawdown($25)
Time11/19/24 18:41
Quant open1
Worst price5945.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($25)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/19/24 11:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5913.00 11/19 13:44 5937.75 0.24%
Trade id #150122948
Max drawdown($127)
Time11/19/24 13:39
Quant open1
Worst price5938.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 ($125)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/13/24 22:42 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6009.25 11/19 10:53 5916.50 0.15%
Trade id #150082490
Max drawdown($80)
Time11/14/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6025.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 $463
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/13/24 10:13 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6003.75 11/13 22:42 6009.25 0.05%
Trade id #150075332
Max drawdown($27)
Time11/13/24 10:22
Quant open2
Worst price6001.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $53
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/13/24 10:06 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5998.25 11/13 10:13 6005.00 0.11%
Trade id #150075228
Max drawdown($60)
Time11/13/24 10:10
Quant open1
Worst price6010.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 ($35)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/13/24 10:12 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 21114.50 11/13 10:13 21106.25 0.06%
Trade id #150075320
Max drawdown($33)
Time11/13/24 10:13
Quant open2
Worst price21106.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($35)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/13/24 10:12 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 2 21116.25 11/13 10:12 21112.50 0.03%
Trade id #150075317
Max drawdown($15)
Time11/13/24 10:12
Quant open2
Worst price21112.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 ($17)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/12/24 22:04 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 6008.25 11/13 10:06 5999.00 0.29%
Trade id #150071463
Max drawdown($152)
Time11/13/24 1:35
Quant open2
Worst price5993.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 ($95)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/7/24 22:29 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6002.50 11/12 21:53 6006.25 0.49%
Trade id #150035501
Max drawdown($253)
Time11/11/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price6053.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/6/24 22:41 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5964.25 11/7 22:29 6002.50 0.13%
Trade id #150018700
Max drawdown($67)
Time11/7/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price5950.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.13%
 $190
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/6/24 10:20 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5928.25 11/6 10:39 5925.25 0.1%
Trade id #150008980
Max drawdown($52)
Time11/6/24 10:37
Quant open2
Worst price5923.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
 ($32)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/6/24 0:26 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5875.25 11/6 9:51 5908.25 0.02%
Trade id #149999671
Max drawdown($12)
Time11/6/24 0:29
Quant open2
Worst price5874.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $328
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/5/24 23:30 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5885.25 11/6 0:23 5873.50 0.37%
Trade id #149999462
Max drawdown($192)
Time11/6/24 0:10
Quant open2
Worst price5866.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
 ($120)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/5/24 22:08 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5884.50 11/5 23:00 5881.75 0.09%
Trade id #149999066
Max drawdown($46)
Time11/5/24 22:26
Quant open1
Worst price5893.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $13
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/5/24 21:33 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5869.50 11/5 22:01 5884.00 0.15%
Trade id #149998881
Max drawdown($77)
Time11/5/24 22:01
Quant open1
Worst price5885.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 ($74)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/5/24 21:33 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 20494.75 11/5 21:33 20496.25 0.01%
Trade id #149998875
Max drawdown($3)
Time11/5/24 21:33
Quant open1
Worst price20496.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
10/31/24 23:15 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5746.25 11/5 21:30 5871.25 1.21%
Trade id #149926308
Max drawdown($630)
Time11/5/24 21:30
Quant open1
Worst price5872.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.21%
 ($626)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
10/31/24 22:35 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5740.25 10/31 23:05 5744.75 0.04%
Trade id #149926242
Max drawdown($22)
Time10/31/24 23:04
Quant open1
Worst price5744.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    8/4/2024
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $50,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    139.31
  • Age
    139 days ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    165
  • # Profitable
    56
  • % Profitable
    33.90%
  • Avg trade duration
    17.1 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    5.17%
  • drawdown period
    Aug 29, 2024 - Sept 08, 2024
  • Cumul. Return
    3.5%
  • Avg win
    $216.36
  • Avg loss
    $84.93
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $52,604
  • Margin Used
    $1,600
  • Buying Power
    $51,270
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.31:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.91
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.54
  • Calmar Ratio
    3.722
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -7.46%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.10540
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    10.93%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    9.1%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    3.60%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.67%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.035%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    15.6%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    429
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    602
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    929
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    371
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $85
  • Avg Win
    $216
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $9,257.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    5
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $12,116.000
  • # Winners
    56
  • Num Months Winners
    2
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    109
  • % Winners
    33.9%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    1026.60
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    17.11
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.7 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    2
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    0.93
  • Daily leverage (max)
    5.27
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.02
  • Beta
    0.06
  • Treynor Index
    0.40
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -1.07
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    6.990
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.326
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.403
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.128
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.12286
  • SD
    0.07911
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.55290
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.12368
  • df
    3.00000
  • t
    0.89657
  • p
    0.21801
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.14936
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.04104
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.38812
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.63548
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.52149
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.49673
  • Upside part of mean
    0.17653
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.05367
  • Upside SD
    0.07221
  • Downside SD
    0.02717
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    4.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.46475
  • Mean of criterion
    0.12286
  • SD of predictor
    0.08805
  • SD of criterion
    0.07911
  • Covariance
    0.00509
  • r
    0.73132
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.65710
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.18253
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00437
  • DF error
    2.00000
  • t(b)
    1.51641
  • p(b)
    0.13434
  • t(a)
    -0.78798
  • p(a)
    0.74337
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.20735
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.52155
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.17922
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.81416
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.18697
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.18253
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.11966
  • SD
    0.07826
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.52898
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.10637
  • df
    3.00000
  • t
    0.88276
  • p
    0.22119
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.16602
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.01239
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.40191
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.61466
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.38036
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.35417
  • Upside part of mean
    0.17357
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.05392
  • Upside SD
    0.07099
  • Downside SD
    0.02732
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    2.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    4.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.45223
  • Mean of criterion
    0.11966
  • SD of predictor
    0.08525
  • SD of criterion
    0.07826
  • Covariance
    0.00490
  • r
    0.73419
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.67397
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.18513
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00423
  • DF error
    2.00000
  • t(b)
    1.52931
  • p(b)
    0.13290
  • t(a)
    -0.80857
  • p(a)
    0.74817
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.22222
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.57015
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.17027
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.80001
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.17754
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.18513
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02682
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03593
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01044
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01856
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98682
  • Quartile 1
    0.99666
  • Median
    1.01493
  • Quartile 3
    1.03083
  • Maximum
    1.03358
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98682
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99994
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.02992
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03358
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03417
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01323
  • Quartile 1
    0.01323
  • Median
    0.01323
  • Quartile 3
    0.01323
  • Maximum
    0.01323
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.15125
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.15901
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    12.01590
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.42526
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.08894
  • SD
    0.06667
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.33407
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.32383
  • df
    98.00000
  • t
    0.82006
  • p
    0.20709
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.86322
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.52463
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.87001
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.51767
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.40970
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.90820
  • Upside part of mean
    0.40263
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.31368
  • Upside SD
    0.05539
  • Downside SD
    0.03691
  • N nonnegative terms
    45.00000
  • N negative terms
    54.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    99.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.33604
  • Mean of criterion
    0.08894
  • SD of predictor
    0.13258
  • SD of criterion
    0.06667
  • Covariance
    0.00170
  • r
    0.19270
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.09690
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.05600
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00432
  • DF error
    97.00000
  • t(b)
    1.93412
  • p(b)
    0.02801
  • t(a)
    0.52063
  • p(a)
    0.30190
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00254
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.19634
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15855
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.27131
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.91786
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.05638
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.08673
  • SD
    0.06651
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.30403
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.29402
  • df
    98.00000
  • t
    0.80159
  • p
    0.21236
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.89286
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.49443
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.89958
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.48762
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.34208
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.83080
  • Upside part of mean
    0.40106
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.31433
  • Upside SD
    0.05510
  • Downside SD
    0.03703
  • N nonnegative terms
    45.00000
  • N negative terms
    54.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    99.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.32709
  • Mean of criterion
    0.08673
  • SD of predictor
    0.13265
  • SD of criterion
    0.06651
  • Covariance
    0.00169
  • r
    0.19203
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.09628
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.05523
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00430
  • DF error
    97.00000
  • t(b)
    1.92716
  • p(b)
    0.02844
  • t(a)
    0.51158
  • p(a)
    0.30506
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00288
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.19543
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15905
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.26952
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.90078
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.05523
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00641
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00811
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00292
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00543
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    99.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98881
  • Quartile 1
    0.99833
  • Median
    0.99985
  • Quartile 3
    1.00163
  • Maximum
    1.01460
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99632
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99917
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00065
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00565
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00330
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02020
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98995
  • Number of outliers high
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08081
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01067
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.29878
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00393
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00648
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.62799
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00305
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00666
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00092
  • Quartile 1
    0.00264
  • Median
    0.00383
  • Quartile 3
    0.01031
  • Maximum
    0.03263
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00096
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00349
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00465
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.02879
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00767
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.02879
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.11715
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.12146
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.72222
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    4.21818
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    14.97680
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00600
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.75%
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -346569000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    10

Strategy Description

This strategy will trade the raw SPYPRED5 S&P signal but will use the MES micro E-mini futures contracts with little or no leverage.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2024-08-04
Suggested Minimum Capital
$50,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 7.1%
Rank # 
#276
# Trades
165
# Profitable
56
% Profitable
33.9%
Correlation S&P500
0.105
Sharpe Ratio
0.91
Sortino Ratio
1.54
Beta
0.06
Alpha
0.02
Leverage
0.93 Average
5.27 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.