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NQDayTrader

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.5%
Max Drawdown
55.3%
Trades
612
Win Trades
30.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
45.5%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

Day Trading 1 NQ contract Long and Short . No overnight Positions.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20241.60.8-10.5-5.41.917.741.72.3-9.50.439.190.6
2025-15.713.019.33.8-16.3-16.0-11.3-5.6-16.739.432.44.011.1
2026-2.6-2.0-12.4-7.8-1.9-16.8-9.32.5-11.1-2.9-49.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/16/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age32 months
C2 Rank224
What it tradesFutures
# Trades612
# Profitable188
% Profitable30.7%
Avg trade duration2.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown55.3%
drawdown periodApril 10, 2025 - Oct 08, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)2.5%
Avg win$2,559
Avg loss$1,104

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Sortino Ratio0.37
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life55.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-48.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity123.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss83.5%
Chance of 20% account loss63.0%
Chance of 30% account loss41.0%
Chance of 40% account loss22.5%
Chance of 50% account loss9.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)815
C2 Score224
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)472

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,104
Avg Win$2,559
# Winners188
Sum Trade PL (losers)$468,000
Sum Trade PL (winners)$481,032
Num Months Winners15
# Losers424
% Winners30.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table33

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)125.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.09
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.85
Daily leverage (max)11.18

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.13
Treynor Index-0.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.04
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.12
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.85
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df30
t0.68
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.87
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.63
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.02
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error29
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.89
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.10
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df30
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.40
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio2.49
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms18
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.01
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error29
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.88
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean0.16
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df682
t0.66
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio0.76
Upside Potential Ratio10.41
Upside part of mean2.13
Downside part of mean-1.97
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms229
N negative terms454
N of observations683
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error681
t(b)-1.21
p(b)0.89
t(a)0.73
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.09
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df682
t0.37
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio10.03
Upside part of mean2.08
Downside part of mean-1.99
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms229
N negative terms454
N of observations683
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error681
t(b)-1.26
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.60
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.88
df130
t-1.34
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-2.81
Upside Potential Ratio7.15
Upside part of mean1.54
Downside part of mean-2.14
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.60
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.84
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)4.30
p(b)0.28
t(a)-1.96
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.84
Mean-0.66
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.05
df130
t-1.46
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-3.00
Upside Potential Ratio6.90
Upside part of mean1.51
Downside part of mean-2.16
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.66
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.88
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)4.29
p(b)0.28
t(a)-2.07
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.88
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.90
Median0.99
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.95
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations683
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high49
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median0.99
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.15
Median0.20
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.14
Mean of quarter 20.16
Mean of quarter 30.25
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-16.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.38
Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411964448
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)546
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.50
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.54
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-11.07

Trading record

Placed 1222 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ Z6short7Oct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026($108)
@MNQ Z6short7Oct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026($1,394)
@MNQ Z6long7Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026($412)
@MNQ Z6long7Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026$1,750
@MNQ Z6long7Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026($990)
@MNQ Z6long7Sep 30, 2026Sep 30, 2026($2,021)
@MNQ Z6short7Sep 29, 2026Sep 29, 2026($928)
@MNQ Z6short7Sep 28, 2026Sep 28, 2026$34
@MNQ Z6short7Sep 28, 2026Sep 28, 2026($930)
@MNQ Z6long7Sep 24, 2026Sep 24, 2026($1,019)
@MNQ Z6short7Sep 24, 2026Sep 24, 2026($407)
@MNQ Z6short7Sep 23, 2026Sep 23, 2026($1,424)
@MNQ Z6long7Sep 21, 2026Sep 21, 2026$6,810
@MNQ Z6long7Sep 18, 2026Sep 18, 2026($1,478)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 17, 2026Sep 17, 2026$1,139
@MNQ U6short7Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026$628
@MNQ U6long7Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026($1,803)
@MNQ U6short7Sep 15, 2026Sep 15, 2026($117)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026$35
@MNQ U6short7Sep 14, 2026Sep 14, 2026($878)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 11, 2026Sep 11, 2026($516)
@MNQ U6short7Sep 10, 2026Sep 10, 2026($816)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($725)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($818)
@MNQ U6long7Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026$864
@MNQ U6long7Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026($691)
@MNQ U6short7Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026($371)
@MNQ U6short7Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($596)
@MNQ U6long7Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($1,288)
@MNQ U6long7Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$2,570

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.