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OLD Bear Market Strategy

Stocks · Started Dec 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-13.2%
Max Drawdown
33.9%
Trades
16
Win Trades
25.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
54.3%

About this strategy

This strategy is designed to shine during a stock market bear market. It is still designed to do well in a bull market, but is quicker to switch to assets that do well during bear markets. It does this while still staying true to the principles that I use with my strategy Easiest to Follow.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-2.3-2.3
2024-0.45.50.6-9.512.2-0.7-1.40.63.9-15.3-5.31.1-11.0
2025-3.44.6-6.4-5.54.77.52.23.34.84.6-3.33.416.3
2026-0.13.1-9.59.75.31.2-3.84.3-2.50.06.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/27/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age34 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades16
# Profitable4
% Profitable25.0%
Avg trade duration107.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.9%
drawdown periodSept 16, 2024 - Nov 22, 2024
Cumul. Return-13.0%
Avg win$4,933
Avg loss$1,654

Ratios

W:L ratio1.24
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.16
Calmar Ratio0.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.55
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life60.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-39.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-13.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss71.0%
Chance of 30% account loss28.5%
Chance of 40% account loss10.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,654
Avg Win$4,933
# Winners4
Sum Trade PL (losers)$19,844
Sum Trade PL (winners)$19,733
Num Months Winners20
# Losers12
% Winners25.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct4944

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table35

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)155105.69
Avg Position Time (hrs)2585.09
Avg Trade Length107.70
Last Trade Ago667

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.36
Daily leverage (max)2.93

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.89
Treynor Index0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.08
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-56.47
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.99
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.69

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.16
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df10
t-0.65
p0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio1.14
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.62
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error9
t(b)2.12
p(b)0.03
t(a)-2.03
p(a)0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.62
Mean-0.19
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.72
df10
t-0.74
p0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio-0.90
Upside Potential Ratio1.04
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.65
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error9
t(b)2.09
p(b)0.03
t(a)-2.08
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.65
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean-0.11
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df252
t-0.39
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio-0.52
Upside Potential Ratio7.75
Upside part of mean1.70
Downside part of mean-1.82
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms122
N of observations253
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error251
t(b)4.00
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
Mean-0.16
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df252
t-0.53
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio7.52
Upside part of mean1.69
Downside part of mean-1.84
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms122
N of observations253
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error251
t(b)4.04
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.39
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.31
df130
t-0.93
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio-1.74
Upside Potential Ratio7.10
Upside part of mean1.59
Downside part of mean-1.98
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.39
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)8.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
Mean-0.43
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.45
df130
t-1.03
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio-1.90
Upside Potential Ratio6.90
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.43
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.43
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.51
t(a)-1.01
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)11.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.43
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.93
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations253
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.00
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.07
Median0.08
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.68
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-344306880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)67
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.61

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVIX long1473Nov 21, 2024Dec 13, 2024$3,567
SVIX long741Nov 19, 2024Nov 20, 2024($679)
SVIX long1536Nov 18, 2024Nov 19, 2024($2,678)
SVIX long1613Nov 6, 2024Nov 15, 2024($1,422)
TMF long1404Jul 30, 2024Nov 1, 2024($4,298)
SVIX long482Oct 25, 2024Oct 31, 2024($352)
SVIX long471Oct 23, 2024Oct 25, 2024($376)
SVIX long479Oct 17, 2024Oct 23, 2024($374)
SVIX long511Oct 8, 2024Oct 16, 2024$327
SVIX long5681Dec 27, 2023Aug 1, 2024$3,369
TMF long527Jul 11, 2024Jul 19, 2024($627)
TMF long523Jun 27, 2024Jun 28, 2024($1,166)
TMF long517Jun 13, 2024Jun 26, 2024($1,034)
TMF long396Dec 27, 2023Dec 29, 2023($1,085)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.