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Two wise men

Options · Options · Started Oct 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.5%
Max Drawdown
38.2%
Trades
136
Win Trades
94.9%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
73.0%
Subscribe $20/mo

Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.21.30.92.4
20240.21.60.80.6-0.31.5-0.11.10.80.81.30.28.8
20250.7-1.5-3.8-5.03.72.11.20.51.50.60.51.11.2
2026-0.30.6-0.2-0.2-0.20.60.70.50.3-0.51.3

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/19/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age37 months
C2 Rank200
What it tradesOptions
# Trades136
# Profitable129
% Profitable94.9%
Avg trade duration16.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.2%
drawdown periodMarch 07, 2025 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)4.5%
Avg win$93
Avg loss$889

Ratios

W:L ratio1.93
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Sortino Ratio0.25
Calmar Ratio0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.43
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life79.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-64.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss69.0%
Chance of 20% account loss26.0%
Chance of 30% account loss13.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)722
C2 Score200
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)571

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$896
Avg Win$93
# Winners129
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,274
Sum Trade PL (winners)$12,015
Num Months Winners27
# Losers7
% Winners94.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table37

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)23022.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)383.71
Avg Trade Length16
Last Trade Ago5

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.07
Daily leverage (max)4.42

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.54
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.58
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.15
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.68
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df29
t1.16
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms5
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.01
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error28
t(b)5.98
p(b)0
t(a)-1.32
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df29
t1.06
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio1.80
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms5
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.01
r0.76
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error28
t(b)6.21
p(b)0
t(a)-1.43
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.07
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df668
t0.61
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms427
N negative terms242
N of observations669
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error667
t(b)11.12
p(b)0
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean0.05
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df668
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.97
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms427
N negative terms242
N of observations669
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error667
t(b)11.52
p(b)0
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.04
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df130
t0.67
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio1.40
Upside Potential Ratio6.89
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance0.00
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)2.75
p(b)0.35
t(a)0.53
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.04
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df130
t0.66
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.70
Sortino ratio1.37
Upside Potential Ratio6.85
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance0.00
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)2.88
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.01
Median1.01
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations669
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high76
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations62
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-418630304
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)31
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.84
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.94

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QQQ2616V681 short1Sep 28, 2026Oct 17, 2026$135
QQQ2609V686 short1Sep 21, 2026Oct 10, 2026$132
QQQ2604U673 short1Aug 17, 2026Sep 5, 2026$128
DIA2628T510 short1Aug 11, 2026Aug 29, 2026$43
DIA2621T503 short1Aug 4, 2026Aug 22, 2026$30
DIA2624S501 short1Jul 7, 2026Jul 25, 2026$49
QQQ2624S650 short1Jul 6, 2026Jul 25, 2026$140
QQQ2610S655 short1Jun 22, 2026Jul 11, 2026$175
DIA2602S492 short1Jun 15, 2026Jul 3, 2026$61
DIA2618R483 short1Jun 3, 2026Jun 19, 2026$46
DIA2627N473 short1Feb 9, 2026Feb 28, 2026$84
QQQ2613N575 short1Jan 26, 2026Feb 14, 2026$99
DIA2526X452 short1Dec 8, 2025Dec 27, 2025$67
QQQ2526X570 short1Dec 8, 2025Dec 27, 2025$92
QQQ2519X560 short1Dec 1, 2025Dec 20, 2025$116
DIA2519X445 short1Dec 1, 2025Dec 20, 2025$89
QQQ2521W580 short1Nov 3, 2025Nov 22, 2025$127
DIA2521W446 short1Nov 3, 2025Nov 22, 2025$77
DIA2514W450 short1Oct 27, 2025Nov 6, 2025$27
QQQ2514W581 short1Oct 27, 2025Nov 6, 2025$33
DIA2524V442 short1Oct 6, 2025Oct 25, 2025$71
QQQ2510V562 short1Sep 22, 2025Oct 11, 2025$114
QQQ2503V550 short1Sep 15, 2025Oct 4, 2025$132
QQQ2526U540 short2Sep 8, 2025Sep 27, 2025$126
DIA2512U432 short1Aug 25, 2025Sep 13, 2025$55
QQQ2505U541 short1Aug 18, 2025Sep 6, 2025$99
DIA2505U427 short1Aug 18, 2025Sep 6, 2025$56
QQQ2529T534 short1Aug 11, 2025Aug 30, 2025$104
DIA2501T418 short1Jul 14, 2025Aug 2, 2025$66
QQQ2525S509 short1Jul 7, 2025Jul 26, 2025$95

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.