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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

ES NQ Day Trades
(146006468)

Created by: Systematic_Trader Systematic_Trader
Started: 10/2023
Futures
Last trade: 17 days ago
Trading style: Futures Trend-following Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $149.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Buys when price goes up, and sells when price goes down, expecting price movements to continue. There are a number of different techniques and time-frames used, including moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders do not aim to forecast specific price levels; they simply jump on a trend and ride it. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
66.1%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(19.7%)
Max Drawdown
354
Num Trades
46.0%
Win Trades
1.2 : 1
Profit Factor
61.5%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                                                               +25.4%+8.4%(1.1%)+34.5%
2024+11.3%(0.5%)+4.5%+6.4%(4.8%)+1.5%(5.4%)+5.3%+19.6%(11.7%)            +24.8%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 621 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/19/24 9:40 @NQZ4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 20058.77 9/19 15:59 20091.63 1.35%
Trade id #149453478
Max drawdown($1,895)
Time9/19/24 9:52
Quant open1
Worst price19964.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.35%
$649
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/18/24 12:55 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 19459.04 9/18 15:10 19382.30 1.4%
Trade id #149436214
Max drawdown($2,025)
Time9/18/24 15:05
Quant open1
Worst price19357.80
Drawdown as % of equity-1.40%
($1,543)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/18/24 11:25 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 19403.48 9/18 12:55 19459.52 0.81%
Trade id #149431787
Max drawdown($1,175)
Time9/18/24 12:55
Quant open10
Worst price19462.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.81%
($1,130)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/18/24 10:00 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 19467.16 9/18 11:25 19405.18 0.94%
Trade id #149430528
Max drawdown($1,363)
Time9/18/24 11:25
Quant open1
Worst price19399.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
($1,248)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/17/24 13:45 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 19352.35 9/17 15:59 19436.04 1.31%
Trade id #149422014
Max drawdown($1,907)
Time9/17/24 15:56
Quant open10
Worst price19447.80
Drawdown as % of equity-1.31%
($1,683)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/17/24 9:40 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 19547.74 9/17 12:25 19446.96 1.88%
Trade id #149418122
Max drawdown($2,794)
Time9/17/24 12:24
Quant open1
Worst price19408.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.88%
($2,024)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/16/24 9:40 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 19365.75 9/16 15:59 19439.72 0.89%
Trade id #149400868
Max drawdown($1,330)
Time9/16/24 10:35
Quant open1
Worst price19299.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.89%
$1,472
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/16/24 9:45 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5622.00 9/16 15:59 5639.75 0.43%
Trade id #149400999
Max drawdown($637)
Time9/16/24 10:34
Quant open1
Worst price5609.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.43%
$880
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/13/24 9:35 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5615.00 9/13 15:59 5630.00 0.17%
Trade id #149382705
Max drawdown($250)
Time9/13/24 10:00
Quant open1
Worst price5610.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
$742
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/13/24 11:55 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 19534.50 9/13 15:59 19535.50 0.77%
Trade id #149385579
Max drawdown($1,130)
Time9/13/24 12:46
Quant open1
Worst price19478.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.77%
$12
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/12/24 9:55 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5550.25 9/12 15:59 5600.00 0.16%
Trade id #149369996
Max drawdown($225)
Time9/12/24 10:00
Quant open1
Worst price5545.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
$2,480
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/11/24 11:40 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 18762.83 9/11 15:59 19291.00 0.61%
Trade id #149357887
Max drawdown($791)
Time9/11/24 11:56
Quant open1
Worst price18723.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
$10,555
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/11/24 12:05 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5471.83 9/11 15:59 5565.25 0.2%
Trade id #149359180
Max drawdown($254)
Time9/11/24 12:13
Quant open1
Worst price5466.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$4,663
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/11/24 9:55 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5466.71 9/11 12:05 5471.78 0.41%
Trade id #149355858
Max drawdown($527)
Time9/11/24 12:05
Quant open10
Worst price5477.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
($263)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/11/24 10:20 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 18663.24 9/11 11:40 18760.10 1.59%
Trade id #149356318
Max drawdown($2,095)
Time9/11/24 11:39
Quant open10
Worst price18768.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.59%
($1,946)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/10/24 13:15 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 18766.92 9/10 15:59 18867.20 0.39%
Trade id #149342410
Max drawdown($503)
Time9/10/24 13:31
Quant open1
Worst price18741.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
$1,998
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/10/24 13:15 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5481.75 9/10 15:59 5504.75 0.19%
Trade id #149342401
Max drawdown($237)
Time9/10/24 13:29
Quant open1
Worst price5477.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
$1,142
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/10/24 12:00 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5454.20 9/10 13:15 5480.95 1.05%
Trade id #149340205
Max drawdown($1,390)
Time9/10/24 13:15
Quant open10
Worst price5482.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.05%
($1,347)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/10/24 12:00 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 18619.02 9/10 13:15 18766.54 2.27%
Trade id #149340213
Max drawdown($2,994)
Time9/10/24 13:15
Quant open10
Worst price18768.80
Drawdown as % of equity-2.27%
($2,959)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/10/24 9:35 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 18773.70 9/10 12:00 18615.93 2.46%
Trade id #149336630
Max drawdown($3,299)
Time9/10/24 12:00
Quant open1
Worst price18608.80
Drawdown as % of equity-2.46%
($3,163)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/10/24 9:45 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5499.00 9/10 10:15 5472.95 1.04%
Trade id #149336798
Max drawdown($1,412)
Time9/10/24 10:15
Quant open1
Worst price5470.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.04%
($1,311)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/9/24 14:05 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5467.83 9/9 15:59 5478.12 0.46%
Trade id #149326978
Max drawdown($633)
Time9/9/24 15:59
Quant open10
Worst price5480.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.46%
($524)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/9/24 14:00 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 18638.84 9/9 15:59 18693.36 0.85%
Trade id #149326820
Max drawdown($1,183)
Time9/9/24 15:59
Quant open10
Worst price18698.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.85%
($1,099)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/9/24 12:05 @ESU4 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5480.50 9/9 14:05 5468.00 0.51%
Trade id #149324991
Max drawdown($712)
Time9/9/24 14:05
Quant open1
Worst price5466.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
($633)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/9/24 13:10 @NQU4 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 18722.70 9/9 14:00 18638.40 1.32%
Trade id #149326134
Max drawdown($1,859)
Time9/9/24 13:59
Quant open1
Worst price18629.80
Drawdown as % of equity-1.32%
($1,694)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
9/9/24 11:15 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5444.42 9/9 11:50 5473.50 1.08%
Trade id #149323358
Max drawdown($1,529)
Time9/9/24 11:50
Quant open10
Worst price5475.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.08%
($1,463)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/6/24 9:35 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 18931.37 9/6 15:59 18475.18 n/a $9,115
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/6/24 9:55 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5502.16 9/6 15:59 5424.48 0.03%
Trade id #149295649
Max drawdown($41)
Time9/6/24 9:58
Quant open10
Worst price5503.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
$3,875
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/5/24 11:00 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 18983.98 9/5 15:59 18961.34 0.89%
Trade id #149261133
Max drawdown($1,135)
Time9/5/24 14:51
Quant open10
Worst price19040.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.89%
$444
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/5/24 10:50 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 10 5524.29 9/5 15:59 5507.05 0.28%
Trade id #149260863
Max drawdown($360)
Time9/5/24 14:51
Quant open10
Worst price5531.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
$853
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    10/3/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $120,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    369.54
  • Age
    12 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    354
  • # Profitable
    163
  • % Profitable
    46.00%
  • Avg trade duration
    3.1 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    19.72%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 17, 2024 - Oct 04, 2024
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    66.1%
  • Avg win
    $1,835
  • Avg loss
    $1,273
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $130,965
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $130,965
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.23:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.29
  • Sortino Ratio
    2.02
  • Calmar Ratio
    4.072
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    31.86%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.06820
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    35.98%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    66.1%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    19.90%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.05%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.661%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    73.4%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    29.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    7.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    89.87%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    770
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    993
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    422
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    989
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,273
  • Avg Win
    $1,836
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $243,166.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    13
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $299,227.000
  • # Winners
    163
  • Num Months Winners
    8
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    1209020
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    191
  • % Winners
    46.0%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    185.68
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    3.10
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    2
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    5.44
  • Daily leverage (max)
    11.97
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.12
  • Beta
    0.17
  • Treynor Index
    0.78
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.75
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    28.625
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.310
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.179
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.035
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.71442
  • SD
    0.38230
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.86876
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.72439
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    1.78920
  • p
    0.05193
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.37188
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.02991
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.45777
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.90655
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    8.09969
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.14830
  • Upside part of mean
    0.89512
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.18070
  • Upside SD
    0.40941
  • Downside SD
    0.08820
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26202
  • Mean of criterion
    0.71442
  • SD of predictor
    0.11283
  • SD of criterion
    0.38230
  • Covariance
    0.01229
  • r
    0.28495
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.96552
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.46144
  • Mean Square Error
    0.14920
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    0.89182
  • p(b)
    0.19785
  • t(a)
    0.93562
  • p(a)
    0.18695
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.48358
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.41461
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.65424
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.57711
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.73994
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.46144
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.63536
  • SD
    0.35137
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.80823
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.66853
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    1.73125
  • p
    0.05704
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.42197
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.96084
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.50527
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.84233
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    7.05354
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.09927
  • Upside part of mean
    0.81963
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.18427
  • Upside SD
    0.37117
  • Downside SD
    0.09008
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.25289
  • Mean of criterion
    0.63536
  • SD of predictor
    0.11308
  • SD of criterion
    0.35137
  • Covariance
    0.01180
  • r
    0.29690
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.92258
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.40205
  • Mean Square Error
    0.12509
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    0.93277
  • p(b)
    0.18764
  • t(a)
    0.90121
  • p(a)
    0.19548
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.31486
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.16001
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.60715
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.41124
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.68868
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.40205
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.10765
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.14408
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03334
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05842
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94959
  • Quartile 1
    0.97130
  • Median
    1.02736
  • Quartile 3
    1.13975
  • Maximum
    1.24090
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95633
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00146
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.08420
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.21291
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.16844
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -29.17290
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04644
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.48348
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05992
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06026
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.02299
  • Quartile 1
    0.02870
  • Median
    0.03440
  • Quartile 3
    0.06434
  • Maximum
    0.09428
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.02299
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03440
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09428
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03564
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.91281
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.94112
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    9.98247
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    9.98247
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    6.53182
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.52043
  • SD
    0.32285
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.61200
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.60731
  • df
    258.00000
  • t
    1.60275
  • p
    0.05511
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.36571
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.58666
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.36884
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.58347
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.50308
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.46732
  • Upside part of mean
    1.76050
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.24007
  • Upside SD
    0.24826
  • Downside SD
    0.20792
  • N nonnegative terms
    93.00000
  • N negative terms
    166.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    259.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.29108
  • Mean of criterion
    0.52043
  • SD of predictor
    0.12614
  • SD of criterion
    0.32285
  • Covariance
    0.00386
  • r
    0.09467
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24230
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.45000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.10370
  • DF error
    257.00000
  • t(b)
    1.52450
  • p(b)
    0.06431
  • t(a)
    1.37514
  • p(a)
    0.08514
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.07069
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.55528
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.19437
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.09418
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.14791
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.44991
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.46818
  • SD
    0.32218
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.45316
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.44893
  • df
    258.00000
  • t
    1.44482
  • p
    0.07486
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.52345
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.42702
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.52631
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.42417
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.19711
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.12084
  • Upside part of mean
    1.73045
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.26227
  • Upside SD
    0.24255
  • Downside SD
    0.21309
  • N nonnegative terms
    93.00000
  • N negative terms
    166.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    259.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.28297
  • Mean of criterion
    0.46818
  • SD of predictor
    0.12618
  • SD of criterion
    0.32218
  • Covariance
    0.00375
  • r
    0.09212
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.23521
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.40162
  • Mean Square Error
    0.10332
  • DF error
    257.00000
  • t(b)
    1.48315
  • p(b)
    0.06963
  • t(a)
    1.23050
  • p(a)
    0.10982
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.07709
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.54751
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.24111
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.04435
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.99046
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.40162
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03048
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03848
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01254
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02641
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    259.00000
  • Minimum
    0.91489
  • Quartile 1
    0.99970
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00705
  • Maximum
    1.07809
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98141
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00161
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02534
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00735
  • Number outliers low
    37.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97053
  • Number of outliers high
    35.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.13514
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03653
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.66671
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00758
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02801
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.25879
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01574
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03113
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    19.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00046
  • Quartile 1
    0.01294
  • Median
    0.02775
  • Quartile 3
    0.05598
  • Maximum
    0.15773
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00334
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02196
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.04305
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12015
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04304
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15790
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.14723
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -10.69580
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.11125
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.11125
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.02957
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.14807
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.15045
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.64031
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.64228
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.07204
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    5.34560
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    16.69010
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.25111
  • SD
    0.38709
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.64871
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.64496
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.45870
  • p
    0.47990
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.12543
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.42043
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.12796
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.41787
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.94741
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.66256
  • Upside part of mean
    2.03094
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.77983
  • Upside SD
    0.28051
  • Downside SD
    0.26505
  • N nonnegative terms
    47.00000
  • N negative terms
    84.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18068
  • Mean of criterion
    0.25111
  • SD of predictor
    0.13664
  • SD of criterion
    0.38709
  • Covariance
    0.00217
  • r
    0.04095
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.11601
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.23015
  • Mean Square Error
    0.15075
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.46551
  • p(b)
    0.47394
  • t(a)
    0.41774
  • p(a)
    0.47661
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.37707
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.60911
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.85987
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.32017
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.16443
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.23015
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.17667
  • SD
    0.38716
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.45631
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.45367
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.32266
  • p
    0.48586
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.31690
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.22783
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.31868
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.22603
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.64936
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.32437
  • Upside part of mean
    1.99267
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.81601
  • Upside SD
    0.27359
  • Downside SD
    0.27206
  • N nonnegative terms
    47.00000
  • N negative terms
    84.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17131
  • Mean of criterion
    0.17667
  • SD of predictor
    0.13686
  • SD of criterion
    0.38716
  • Covariance
    0.00204
  • r
    0.03857
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.10910
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.15798
  • Mean Square Error
    0.15083
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.43835
  • p(b)
    0.47545
  • t(a)
    0.28676
  • p(a)
    0.48393
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.03000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.38332
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.60151
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.93198
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.24793
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.61935
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.15798
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03793
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04746
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01810
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03676
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.91489
  • Quartile 1
    0.99858
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00900
  • Maximum
    1.07809
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97340
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99990
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00207
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02892
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01042
  • Number outliers low
    23.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.17557
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96522
  • Number of outliers high
    15.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11450
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04555
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.90871
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00710
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00729
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.14394
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02720
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03962
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00965
  • Quartile 1
    0.03686
  • Median
    0.10076
  • Quartile 3
    0.13037
  • Maximum
    0.15773
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01717
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.07490
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.12026
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.14911
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09351
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -372516000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    17
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.21540
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.22700
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.43919
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.52238
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.78288

Strategy Description

Trades ES NQ Futures intraday. Longs are taken with 1 NQ and/or 1 ES, Shorts are taken with 10 MNQ and/or 10 MES.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-10-03
Suggested Minimum Capital
$120,000
# Trades
354
# Profitable
163
% Profitable
46.0%
Correlation S&P500
0.068
Sharpe Ratio
1.29
Sortino Ratio
2.02
Beta
0.17
Alpha
0.12
Leverage
5.44 Average
11.97 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.