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SP 500 STOCKS

Stocks · Started Sep 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
101.4%
Max Drawdown
94.4%
Trades
29
Win Trades
51.7%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
28.9%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-54.4-82.91093.071.359.8
2024-3.4-2.215.360.58.3-10.217.918.116.3-11.066.7-7.7277.2
20255.0-45.60.5-13.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-50.4
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/17/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age37 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades29
# Profitable15
% Profitable51.7%
Avg trade duration48.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown94.4%
drawdown periodSept 20, 2023 - Oct 27, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)101.4%
Avg win$6,450
Avg loss$4,406

Ratios

W:L ratio1.59
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Sortino Ratio1.25
Calmar Ratio1.57

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life71.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)184.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)101.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)55.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity164.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss81.0%
Chance of 20% account loss70.5%
Chance of 30% account loss50.0%
Chance of 40% account loss38.5%
Chance of 50% account loss26.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)22.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)5.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,406
Avg Win$6,450
# Winners15
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,688
Sum Trade PL (winners)$96,751
Num Months Winners11
# Losers14
% Winners51.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1258

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table38

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)69145.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)1152.42
Avg Trade Length48
Last Trade Ago557

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.82
Daily leverage (max)277.26

Regression

Alpha0.17
Beta2.16
Treynor Index0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.17
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.15
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.19
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.65
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats84.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.64
SD1.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.33
df16
t1.66
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.04
Sortino ratio3.34
Upside Potential Ratio4.81
Upside part of mean2.37
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD1.14
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms6
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion1.64
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion1.18
Covariance0.06
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.88
Mean Square Error1.16
DF error15
t(b)2.06
p(b)0.21
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.96
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.88
Mean1.03
SD1.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df16
t1.16
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio3.03
Upside part of mean1.92
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.86
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms6
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion1.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion1.06
Covariance0.06
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.83
DF error15
t(b)2.59
p(b)0.17
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.34
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
Mean1.94
SD1.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.32
df378
t1.59
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio2.32
Upside Potential Ratio8.47
Upside part of mean7.08
Downside part of mean-5.14
Upside SD1.21
Downside SD0.84
N nonnegative terms202
N negative terms177
N of observations379
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion1.94
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.47
Covariance0.08
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.20
Mean Square Error1.92
DF error377
t(b)6.73
p(b)0
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.99
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)1.72
Mean0.95
SD1.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df378
t0.82
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.31
Sortino ratio0.99
Upside Potential Ratio6.78
Upside part of mean6.51
Downside part of mean-5.56
Upside SD1.01
Downside SD0.96
N nonnegative terms202
N negative terms177
N of observations379
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.95
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.39
Covariance0.07
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.78
Mean Square Error1.74
DF error377
t(b)6.60
p(b)0
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.94
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.78
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.94
SD1.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df130
t0.49
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.46
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio7.53
Upside part of mean7.12
Downside part of mean-6.17
Upside SD0.98
Downside SD0.95
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.17
Mean of criterion0.94
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion1.37
Covariance0.06
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.18
Mean Square Error1.80
DF error129
t(b)2.38
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.94
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)1.18
Mean-0.02
SD1.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df130
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.76
Sortino ratio-0.02
Upside Potential Ratio6.06
Upside part of mean6.70
Downside part of mean-6.72
Upside SD0.88
Downside SD1.11
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.20
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion1.42
Covariance0.05
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error1.96
DF error129
t(b)2.09
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.54
Quartile 10.95
Median1.07
Quartile 31.25
Maximum2.02
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.22
Mean of quarter 41.58
Inter Quartile Range0.29
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high2.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.55
Number of observations379
Minimum0.61
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.84
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations131
Minimum0.61
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.05
Median0.23
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.41
Mean of quarter 40.46
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.12
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.89
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.45
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.48
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.10
Median0.13
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1985.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.24
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405430528
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)37
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.87
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.50
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.67
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.49
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.05

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GOLD long4500Sep 26, 2024Apr 6, 2025($1,560)
PYPL2521C90 long95Jan 16, 2025Mar 22, 2025($53,574)
PYPL2517A80 long100Sep 26, 2024Jan 16, 2025$36,285
CQP long1000Sep 26, 2024Oct 2, 2024($408)
META long100Sep 26, 2024Sep 26, 2024($230)
GOLD long1500Sep 25, 2024Sep 26, 2024$475
CQP long500Sep 25, 2024Sep 26, 2024($205)
META long20Sep 25, 2024Sep 26, 2024$49
PYPL2618L100 long25Sep 19, 2024Sep 26, 2024$2,465
PYPL2415K75 long45Aug 29, 2024Sep 19, 2024$10,297
PYPL2420I75 long30Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024$738
PYPL long500Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($25)
CQP long1300Aug 16, 2024Sep 19, 2024($645)
PYPL long600May 16, 2024Aug 30, 2024$4,875
MRT long5000Apr 25, 2024Aug 20, 2024$4,495
GOLD long1500Apr 25, 2024Aug 20, 2024$5,003
AU long1450Apr 25, 2024May 16, 2024$2,941
MRT long12500Jan 26, 2024Apr 25, 2024$8,668
BP long512.5Apr 5, 2024Apr 25, 2024$171
NEM long1449.75Feb 22, 2024Apr 25, 2024$6,273
C long518.5Dec 14, 2023Apr 23, 2024$2,165
BAC long1192.25Jan 12, 2024Apr 12, 2024($60)
NEM long187.5Jan 18, 2024Feb 16, 2024($306)
BIDU long25Jan 26, 2024Feb 14, 2024($44)
NEM long250Dec 14, 2023Jan 16, 2024($1,154)
BAC long500Dec 14, 2023Jan 12, 2024($365)
SPY2419A450 long10Sep 21, 2023Dec 13, 2023$11,484
@ES Z3long0.75Sep 18, 2023Sep 21, 2023($3,094)
@ES Z3short0.25Sep 17, 2023Sep 18, 2023($183)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.