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Stock Traderr

Equity · Stocks · Started Sep 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.0%
Max Drawdown
6.7%
Trades
41
Win Trades
53.7%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
13.5%

About this strategy

Stock, ETF(SQQQ, TQQQ)

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20232.211.06.25.527.1
20248.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.7
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/1/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$34,443
Age37 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades41
# Profitable22
% Profitable53.7%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown6.7%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2023 - Oct 09, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)11.0%
Avg win$1,081
Avg loss$498

Ratios

W:L ratio2.54
Sharpe Ratio1.03
Sortino Ratio2.48
Calmar Ratio11.71

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life73.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-31.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss3.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$498
Avg Win$1,081
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,460
Sum Trade PL (winners)$23,790
Num Months Winners5
# Losers19
% Winners53.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct227

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table37

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2132.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)35.55
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago980

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.93
Daily leverage (max)8.05

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0
Treynor Index-9.56

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.62

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.96
df8
t2.84
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.65
Sortino ratio85.53
Upside Potential Ratio87.83
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.02
r-0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.62
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error7
t(b)-1.37
p(b)0.89
t(a)3.22
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.62
Mean0.44
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.96
df8
t2.84
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.65
Sortino ratio82.33
Upside Potential Ratio84.64
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error7
t(b)-1.34
p(b)0.89
t(a)3.20
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.42
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.05
df208
t2.74
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.27
Sortino ratio7.94
Upside Potential Ratio12.38
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms165
N of observations209
Mean of predictor0.67
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error207
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.66
t(a)2.76
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-31.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.41
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.02
df208
t2.70
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.23
Sortino ratio7.69
Upside Potential Ratio12.11
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms165
N of observations209
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error207
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.65
t(a)2.73
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-31.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.14
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.11
df130
t1.50
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.89
Sortino ratio64.76
Upside Potential Ratio77.85
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.48
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-185.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.14
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.12
df130
t1.50
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.90
Sortino ratio63.76
Upside Potential Ratio76.85
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.94
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.03
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.48
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-322.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1.05
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations209
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high44
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.63
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-18.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-659626496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)11.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.75
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal35.37
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)255.66
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs255.66
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.42

Trading record

Placed 16 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long1300Jan 22, 2024Jan 24, 2024$2,443
SPXL long400Jan 18, 2024Jan 19, 2024$660
SPXL long200Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024($130)
SPXL long400Jan 8, 2024Jan 10, 2024$739
SPXL long300Jan 4, 2024Jan 4, 2024$90
SPXS long500Jan 2, 2024Jan 3, 2024$25
TQQQ long500Dec 13, 2023Dec 14, 2023$635
TQQQ long1200Dec 7, 2023Dec 13, 2023$3,944
TQQQ long1000Dec 5, 2023Dec 6, 2023($121)
TQQQ long1000Dec 1, 2023Dec 4, 2023($1,795)
TQQQ long400Nov 22, 2023Nov 29, 2023($122)
TQQQ long1200Nov 17, 2023Nov 22, 2023$1,665
SQQQ long3300Nov 17, 2023Nov 17, 2023($195)
TQQQ long1200Nov 16, 2023Nov 17, 2023($298)
TQQQ long1000Nov 15, 2023Nov 16, 2023($278)
TQQQ long1200Nov 10, 2023Nov 14, 2023$3,218
SPXS long2500Nov 10, 2023Nov 10, 2023($455)
SPXL long400Nov 10, 2023Nov 10, 2023($60)
SPXS long2600Nov 9, 2023Nov 10, 2023($20)
SPXL long600Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($837)
SPXL long500Oct 30, 2023Oct 30, 2023$510
SPXS long8600Oct 30, 2023Oct 30, 2023($1,348)
SPXS long700Oct 26, 2023Oct 26, 2023$51
SPXS long4000Oct 25, 2023Oct 26, 2023$224
SPXS long4800Oct 23, 2023Oct 25, 2023$268
SPXS long3000Oct 19, 2023Oct 23, 2023$2,860
SPXS long2000Oct 19, 2023Oct 19, 2023($65)
SPXS long2500Oct 18, 2023Oct 19, 2023$270
SPXS long3000Oct 18, 2023Oct 18, 2023$253
SPXL long500Oct 17, 2023Oct 18, 2023($890)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.