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HEDGED SP500 FUTURES

Futures · Futures · Started Aug 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
57.3%
Max Drawdown
92.1%
Trades
131
Win Trades
61.1%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
15.4%

About this strategy

Good stock selection with an emphasis on value stocks combined with industry leading risk management algo. the algo very similar to what rentec and citadel both use.

Trend-following Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202313.9-30.9-79.1888.265.6169.5
20245.369.334.8-79.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-50.1
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/28/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age38 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades131
# Profitable80
% Profitable61.1%
Avg trade duration1.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown92.1%
drawdown periodSept 11, 2023 - Oct 27, 2023
Cumul. Return34.6%
Avg win$1,331
Avg loss$1,826

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.48
Sortino Ratio0.84
Calmar Ratio1.70

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.24
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life72.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)22.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)57.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)25.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity408.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss89.5%
Chance of 20% account loss75.5%
Chance of 30% account loss75.5%
Chance of 40% account loss56.0%
Chance of 50% account loss50.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)26.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)13.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)4.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)833
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)652

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,826
Avg Win$1,330
# Winners80
Sum Trade PL (losers)$93,139
Sum Trade PL (winners)$106,440
Num Months Winners6
# Losers51
% Winners61.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table39

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2641.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)44.03
Avg Trade Length1.80
Last Trade Ago905

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)22.41
Daily leverage (max)211.73

Regression

Alpha0.09
Beta1.78
Treynor Index0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.07
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.58
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.09
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades26.50
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.17
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.83
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.46
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.07
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean11.16
SD7.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df6
t1.19
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.03
Sortino ratio11.82
Upside Potential Ratio13.30
Upside part of mean12.56
Downside part of mean-1.40
Upside SD7.33
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms2
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion11.16
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion7.18
Covariance1.08
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)33.96
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.20
Mean Square Error17.79
DF error5
t(b)3.52
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta58.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha17.83
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)2.20
Mean3.25
SD3.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df6
t0.76
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.48
Sortino ratio1.98
Upside Potential Ratio3.40
Upside part of mean5.57
Downside part of mean-2.32
Upside SD2.70
Downside SD1.64
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms2
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion3.25
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion3.25
Covariance0.52
r0.92
b (slope, estimate of beta)17.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.02
Mean Square Error1.91
DF error5
t(b)5.32
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta25.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-1.02
VaR(95%)0.72
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.80
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.41
Mean2.75
SD1.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df165
t1.23
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.01
Sortino ratio2.56
Upside Potential Ratio10.29
Upside part of mean11.05
Downside part of mean-8.30
Upside SD1.42
Downside SD1.07
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms79
N of observations166
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion2.75
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.78
Covariance0.15
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)10.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.06
Mean Square Error1.50
DF error164
t(b)13.54
p(b)0.14
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.08
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)1.04
Mean1.23
SD1.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df165
t0.56
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.17
Sortino ratio1.02
Upside Potential Ratio8.45
Upside part of mean10.21
Downside part of mean-8.97
Upside SD1.25
Downside SD1.21
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms79
N of observations166
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion1.23
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.74
Covariance0.15
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)10.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error1.43
DF error164
t(b)13.58
p(b)0.14
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.61
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean3.08
SD1.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df130
t1.14
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.39
Sortino ratio2.67
Upside Potential Ratio10.28
Upside part of mean11.86
Downside part of mean-8.78
Upside SD1.51
Downside SD1.15
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion3.08
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.90
Covariance0.17
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)11.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error1.60
DF error129
t(b)12.85
p(b)0.07
t(a)0.15
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.84
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean1.34
SD1.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df130
t0.51
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.49
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio8.36
Upside part of mean10.90
Downside part of mean-9.56
Upside SD1.32
Downside SD1.30
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion1.34
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.86
Covariance0.17
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)11.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.33
Mean Square Error1.52
DF error129
t(b)12.93
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.76
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta9.99
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-1.33
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.29
Quartile 10.99
Median1.11
Quartile 31.85
Maximum6.47
Mean of quarter 10.60
Mean of quarter 21.09
Mean of quarter 31.80
Mean of quarter 44.18
Inter Quartile Range0.86
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high6.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations166
Minimum0.64
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.57
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.72
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations131
Minimum0.64
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.57
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.74
Quartile 10.74
Median0.74
Quartile 30.74
Maximum0.74
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.12
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.79
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.22
Mean of quarter 40.61
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.74
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.70
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.67
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.74
Number of observations11
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.15
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.77
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.25
Mean of quarter 40.60
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-97.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.14
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396561760
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)46
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)9.91
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)25.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)34.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal31.97
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.04
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.96
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.14

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY2417E505 long65Apr 15, 2024Apr 21, 2024($24,216)
@NQ M4long2Mar 21, 2024Apr 18, 2024($41,571)
@NQ M4long1Mar 20, 2024Mar 20, 2024$907
@NQ M4long2Mar 12, 2024Mar 20, 2024$1,664
@NQ M4long2Mar 12, 2024Mar 12, 2024$2,274
@NQ M4long1Mar 11, 2024Mar 12, 2024$3,642
@NQ H4long1Mar 1, 2024Mar 11, 2024($7,813)
@NQ H4long2Mar 1, 2024Mar 1, 2024$1,229
QGC M4long8Feb 20, 2024Mar 1, 2024$29,236
@NQ H4long1Mar 1, 2024Mar 1, 2024$977
@NQ H4long1Feb 23, 2024Feb 29, 2024$852
@NQ H4long2Feb 12, 2024Feb 23, 2024($8,086)
@NQ H4long3Feb 9, 2024Feb 9, 2024$2,836
@NQ H4long2Feb 7, 2024Feb 9, 2024$2,849
@NQ H4long2Feb 2, 2024Feb 7, 2024$2,449
@NQ H4long6Jan 22, 2024Feb 2, 2024$11,842
@NQ H4long0.5Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$281
@NQ H4long1Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$1,067
@NQ H4long1.5Dec 28, 2023Jan 19, 2024$5,481
BAC long750Jan 12, 2024Jan 12, 2024$18
@NQ H4long0.5Dec 27, 2023Dec 27, 2023$511
@NQ H4long1.5Dec 20, 2023Dec 26, 2023$2,576
@NQ H4long1Dec 19, 2023Dec 19, 2023$1,110
@NQ H4long0.5Dec 15, 2023Dec 18, 2023$691
@NQ H4long2Dec 15, 2023Dec 15, 2023$1,239
@NQ H4long1Dec 15, 2023Dec 15, 2023$780
@NQ H4long1.5Dec 14, 2023Dec 15, 2023$883
@NQ H4long0.5Dec 13, 2023Dec 14, 2023$1,009
@NQ H4long0.5Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$521
@NQ H4long0.5Dec 13, 2023Dec 13, 2023$1,004

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.