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Zen1

Futures · Futures · Started Aug 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
54.3%
Max Drawdown
16.8%
Trades
277
Win Trades
41.2%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
7.9%

About this strategy

- Consistent training size (1 ES future per $25,000).
- Mostly algorithm trading, only occasional manual adjustment when needed.
- Trade Own System (TOS) using Interactive Broker (IB).
- For SPY Options, can BUY Call and Put Options, but will only Sell Put Options.
- For ES only trading system - see Zen1ES algorithm
- For SPY Options only trading - see Zen1Option algorithm

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20237.3-1.730.3-3.1-7.123.7
202411.7-8.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.7
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/3/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age39 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades277
# Profitable114
% Profitable41.2%
Avg trade duration2.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.8%
drawdown periodOct 25, 2023 - Jan 02, 2024
Cumul. Return27.1%
Avg win$469
Avg loss$266

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.48
Sortino Ratio0.80
Calmar Ratio4.59

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life72.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)15.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)54.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.8%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss24.5%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)761
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)514

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$266
Avg Win$469
# Winners114
Sum Trade PL (losers)$43,370
Sum Trade PL (winners)$53,413
Num Months Winners3
# Losers163
% Winners41.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table39

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)175.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.92
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago964

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)8.19
Daily leverage (max)89.74

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.30

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades136.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.92
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.85
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.17
df5
t1.83
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.25
Sortino ratio12.14
Upside Potential Ratio13.99
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.85
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.89
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error4
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.89
Mean0.78
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.15
df5
t1.81
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.22
Sortino ratio10.94
Upside Potential Ratio12.79
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.78
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.82
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error4
t(b)-0.22
p(b)0.58
t(a)1.60
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.82
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.65
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.40
df138
t1.76
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.11
Sortino ratio4.34
Upside Potential Ratio12.37
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms63
N of observations139
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error137
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.59
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.31
Treynor index (mean / b)1.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
Mean0.61
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.29
df138
t1.67
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.99
Sortino ratio4.05
Upside Potential Ratio12.06
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms63
N of observations139
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error137
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.27
Treynor index (mean / b)1.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.69
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.51
df130
t1.78
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.30
Sortino ratio4.55
Upside Potential Ratio12.40
Upside part of mean1.88
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.69
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)1.87
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.58
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.37
Treynor index (mean / b)1.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
Mean0.65
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.39
df130
t1.70
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.18
Sortino ratio4.25
Upside Potential Ratio12.08
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)1.88
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.08
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.07
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations139
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.06
Median0.06
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.89
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375543520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)69
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.99
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)20.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.31
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.76
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.90
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.70
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.83
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal30.91

Trading record

Placed 562 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY2416N500 short2Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024($27)
SPY2416N500 long4Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024$92
@ES H4short1Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024($133)
SPY2416B501 long2Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024$137
@ES H4long1Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024($146)
@ES H4short1Feb 16, 2024Feb 16, 2024($1,096)
SPY2415N502 long2Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024($101)
@ES H4long1Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024$905
SPY2415N500 long2Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024($125)
SPY2415B500 long2Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024$51
@ES H4short1Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024($521)
@ES H4short1Feb 15, 2024Feb 15, 2024$130
SPY2414N494 long2Feb 14, 2024Feb 15, 2024($131)
@ES H4long1Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024$680
SPY2414B498 long2Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024($23)
@ES H4short1Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024($571)
@ES H4long1Feb 14, 2024Feb 14, 2024($646)
SPY2413B495 long2Feb 13, 2024Feb 14, 2024($163)
SPY2413B491 long3Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024$437
@ES H4long1Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024$55
SPY2413N494 long2Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024$371
@ES H4short1Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024$992
@ES H4long1Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024($133)
@ES H4short1Feb 13, 2024Feb 13, 2024($946)
SPY2412N502 long2Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024$61
@ES H4short1Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024($58)
@ES H4long1Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024($183)
SPY2412B503 long2Feb 12, 2024Feb 12, 2024($5)
@ES H4long1Feb 9, 2024Feb 9, 2024$305
@ES H4long1Feb 9, 2024Feb 9, 2024($58)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.