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The Neural Swinger

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.7%
Max Drawdown
43.2%
Trades
8
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
4.8%

About this strategy

Empower your investments with our tailor-made Neural Swinger trading strategy! This strategy is designed for investors who aim to optimize their returns, focusing their efforts on one ETF at a time.

The Neural Swinger strategy goes beyond just picking an ETF; it prioritizes accuracy and timing. Our method is sharpened to identify a specific price target for buying at a limit. If the ETF does not hit this purchase target, we simply hold our position - no haste, no missed chances. Once a trade is initiated, we define a specific profit target for selling, thus aiming to maximize potential returns.

What makes us unique? Our Neural Swinger strategy has been rigorously back-tested and enhanced using walk forward analysis over the past ten years. This meticulous process enables us to identify the most promising ETFs and ascertain the optimal entry and exit points to aim for consistent positive returns.

Join us to streamline your trading process and boost your returns. Subscribe now to the Neural Swinger strategy and let's strive to outperform the market together!

Please bear in mind, though, that while our strategy has shown promising results in back-tests, it does not guarantee future results due to the unpredictable nature of the financial markets.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-1.016.618.0-18.3-15.0-16.70.00.0-21.2
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/17/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age41 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades8
# Profitable4
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration12.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.2%
drawdown periodAug 01, 2023 - Oct 12, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.7%
Avg win$2,163
Avg loss$3,315

Ratios

W:L ratio0.65
Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Sortino Ratio-0.62
Calmar Ratio-0.64

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life83.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-108.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity72.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss86.0%
Chance of 30% account loss22.0%
Chance of 40% account loss4.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated86.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,315
Avg Win$2,163
# Winners4
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,261
Sum Trade PL (winners)$8,653
Num Months Winners2
# Losers4
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct12

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table42

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18151.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)302.53
Avg Trade Length12.60
Last Trade Ago1097

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.22
Daily leverage (max)4.44

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.10
Treynor Index-0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.11
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.46
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.72
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.69
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.18
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df7
t-0.25
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio-0.40
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.06
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.60
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error6
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.25
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.40
Jensen alpha (a)-0.60
Mean-0.33
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df7
t-0.44
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio1.05
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.88
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.07
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.90
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error6
t(b)0.90
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.90
VaR(95%)0.27
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
Mean-0.28
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.93
df176
t-0.77
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio-1.18
Upside Potential Ratio4.97
Upside part of mean1.19
Downside part of mean-1.47
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms136
N of observations177
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.39
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error175
t(b)1.56
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.05
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.45
Jensen alpha (a)-0.39
Mean-0.33
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.07
df176
t-0.88
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio4.77
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-1.50
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms136
N of observations177
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.44
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error175
t(b)1.59
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.76
Jensen alpha (a)-0.44
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.95
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.04
df130
t-2.16
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Sortino ratio-3.47
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-1.82
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.95
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.07
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)1.38
p(b)0.42
t(a)-2.40
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.92
Jensen alpha (a)-1.07
Mean-1.00
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.16
df130
t-2.24
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Sortino ratio-3.56
Upside Potential Ratio3.07
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-1.86
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms108
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-1.00
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.12
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)1.39
p(b)0.42
t(a)-2.47
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.14
Jensen alpha (a)-1.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.95
Median1
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations177
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low43
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.38
Quartile 10.38
Median0.38
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.01
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.12
Median0.22
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-444085376
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)72
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.81
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.63
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.52
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-14.46

Trading record

Placed 2 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LABU long6072Sep 8, 2023Oct 13, 2023($9,599)
LABU long5490Jul 26, 2023Sep 5, 2023($3,189)
TNA long808Jul 6, 2023Jul 14, 2023$4,285
UPRO long589Jun 23, 2023Jul 5, 2023$1,521
LABU long3659Jun 14, 2023Jun 15, 2023($481)
KOLD long340Jun 5, 2023Jun 6, 2023$1,571
UPRO long716May 31, 2023Jun 2, 2023$1,254
ENPH long17May 22, 2023May 23, 2023($7)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.