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TQQQMANIA

Stocks · Started May 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-33.5%
Max Drawdown
81.6%
Trades
82
Win Trades
42.7%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
28.6%

About this strategy

1. TQQQMANIA was created after 1000’s of hours of exhaustive study.

2. Seeks High Returns with low Drawdowns

3. I synergistically blend an array of integrated indicators that I believe no one has ever employed

4. TQQQMANIA may not trade for days or more at a time when I perceive it not appropriate

5. All subscribers will be given bonus ETFS which I feel have potential to run BIG

6.Please resist to overtrade in any one system, that includes TQQQMANIA

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202315.26.61.6-31.80.0-27.7-12.4-48.9
2024-9.6-1.5-10.4-0.9-12.4-0.71.1-11.71.88.1-14.00.8-41.3
2025-3.41.21.07.7-8.6-0.9-7.3-4.1-1.50.0-0.1-3.4-18.6
2026-0.20.81.6-2.1-1.5-0.3-0.4-0.8-0.2-0.10.0-3.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/3/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age43 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades82
# Profitable35
% Profitable42.7%
Avg trade duration15.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown81.6%
drawdown periodJuly 14, 2023 - Oct 15, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)-33.5%
Avg win$206
Avg loss$299

Ratios

W:L ratio0.51
Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Sortino Ratio-1.54
Calmar Ratio-1.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.54
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life84.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-162.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-33.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-27.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity443.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss41.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$299
Avg Win$206
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$14,063
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,199
Num Months Winners12
# Losers47
% Winners42.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table43

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22403.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)373.40
Avg Trade Length15.60
Last Trade Ago1182

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.45
Daily leverage (max)3.89

Regression

Alpha-0.06
Beta-1.10
Treynor Index0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.28
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.91
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.79

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.35
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.67
df7
t-1.54
p0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-1.88
Upside Potential Ratio0.61
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-1.35
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance-0.05
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.37
Mean Square Error0.54
DF error6
t(b)-0.84
p(b)0.78
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.37
Mean-1.72
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.88
df7
t-1.73
p0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-1.98
Upside Potential Ratio0.46
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-2.12
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.87
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.91
Mean of criterion-1.72
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance-0.05
r-0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.64
Mean Square Error0.70
DF error6
t(b)-0.80
p(b)0.77
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.50
Treynor index (mean / b)1.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.64
VaR(95%)0.41
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.37
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.51
Mean-1.50
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.82
df182
t-2.37
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Sortino ratio-3.48
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-3.28
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms121
N of observations183
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-1.50
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance-0.08
r-0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.54
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error181
t(b)-8.90
p(b)0.83
t(a)-0.99
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)1.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.54
Mean-1.65
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.07
df182
t-2.57
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Sortino ratio-3.66
Upside Potential Ratio3.86
Upside part of mean1.73
Downside part of mean-3.38
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms121
N of observations183
Mean of predictor0.86
Mean of criterion-1.65
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance-0.08
r-0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.72
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error181
t(b)-8.79
p(b)0.83
t(a)-1.31
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.72
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-2.71
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-4.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-4.50
df130
t-3.20
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-7.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-7.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Sortino ratio-5.34
Upside Potential Ratio3.44
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-4.46
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-2.71
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance-0.11
r-0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.50
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error129
t(b)-8.38
p(b)0.85
t(a)-2.14
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)2.38
Jensen alpha (a)-1.50
Mean-2.91
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-4.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-4.78
df130
t-3.40
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-7.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-7.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Sortino ratio-5.48
Upside Potential Ratio3.18
Upside part of mean1.69
Downside part of mean-4.60
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-2.91
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance-0.11
r-0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.75
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error129
t(b)-8.28
p(b)0.85
t(a)-2.47
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)2.54
Jensen alpha (a)-1.75
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.61
Quartile 10.74
Median0.87
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.66
Mean of quarter 20.77
Mean of quarter 30.98
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations183
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.75
Quartile 10.75
Median0.75
Quartile 30.75
Maximum0.75
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.76
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.76
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)8.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)32.87
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.76
Median0.76
Quartile 30.76
Maximum0.76
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1353093504
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1189
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.82
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.97
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-11.19
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.94
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-11.19

Trading record

Placed 9 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YINN long400Aug 18, 2023Aug 18, 2023($88)
UVIX long1975Aug 18, 2023Aug 18, 2023($400)
JDST long1900Aug 15, 2023Aug 18, 2023$774
UVXY long700Aug 15, 2023Aug 15, 2023($243)
TQQQ long224Aug 14, 2023Aug 15, 2023($217)
UVXY long800Aug 10, 2023Aug 14, 2023($941)
SQQQ long260Aug 10, 2023Aug 10, 2023($13)
SQQQ long320Aug 9, 2023Aug 10, 2023$39
SQQQ long480Aug 9, 2023Aug 9, 2023($168)
GUSH long63Aug 7, 2023Aug 9, 2023$577
TQQQ long174Aug 4, 2023Aug 7, 2023$98
JDST long800Aug 3, 2023Aug 4, 2023($245)
SQQQ long250Aug 2, 2023Aug 3, 2023($43)
TQQQ long195Jul 31, 2023Aug 2, 2023($285)
TQQQ long192Jul 28, 2023Jul 31, 2023$19
SQQQ long185Jul 28, 2023Jul 28, 2023($52)
DRIP long267Jul 27, 2023Jul 28, 2023($90)
JDST long500Jul 27, 2023Jul 28, 2023($90)
TQQQ long331Jul 26, 2023Jul 27, 2023$721
TNA long345Jul 25, 2023Jul 26, 2023$59
TZA long575Jul 24, 2023Jul 25, 2023($235)
TNA long320Jul 24, 2023Jul 24, 2023($64)
TZA long540Jul 24, 2023Jul 24, 2023($32)
FAZ long880Jul 21, 2023Jul 24, 2023($190)
FAZ long600Jul 18, 2023Jul 21, 2023($234)
DXJ long78Jul 18, 2023Jul 19, 2023$42
TMF long540Jul 17, 2023Jul 18, 2023$33
YANG long450Jul 17, 2023Jul 18, 2023$176
DRIP long1180Jul 14, 2023Jul 18, 2023($381)
TMF long420Jul 14, 2023Jul 17, 2023($33)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.