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SSSYEN

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.8%
Max Drawdown
20.4%
Trades
158
Win Trades
51.9%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
14.0%

About this strategy

Trade futures, SQQQ, TQQQ, follow the market trend.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.84.24.06.11.75.80.00.00.026.1
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/8/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$42,500
Age43 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades158
# Profitable82
% Profitable51.9%
Avg trade duration16.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.4%
drawdown periodAug 04, 2023 - Sept 18, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)6.8%
Avg win$436
Avg loss$287

Ratios

W:L ratio1.64
Sharpe Ratio0.40
Sortino Ratio0.60
Calmar Ratio2.60

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life86.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-64.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss32.0%
Chance of 20% account loss2.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$287
Avg Win$436
# Winners82
Sum Trade PL (losers)$21,830
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,748
Num Months Winners6
# Losers76
% Winners51.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table43

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)982.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)16.37
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1122

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.01
Daily leverage (max)24.87

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index-0.92

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-15.27
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.41
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.73
df7
t2.51
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.52
Sortino ratio102.18
Upside Potential Ratio103.92
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms2
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.02
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error6
t(b)-1.06
p(b)0.83
t(a)2.65
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.40
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.76
df7
t2.53
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.56
Sortino ratio98.56
Upside Potential Ratio100.30
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms2
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error6
t(b)-1.05
p(b)0.83
t(a)2.65
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.38
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.58
df195
t1.37
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.85
Sortino ratio2.36
Upside Potential Ratio4.66
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms140
N of observations196
Mean of predictor0.85
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error194
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.35
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.45
df195
t1.26
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio2.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.31
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms140
N of observations196
Mean of predictor0.80
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error194
t(b)-0.28
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.28
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df130
t0.70
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.76
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio3.91
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean0.24
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df130
t0.60
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.61
Sortino ratio1.16
Upside Potential Ratio3.59
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum1
Quartile 11.01
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations196
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-510903424
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)45
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.53
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.46
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.05
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.83

Trading record

Placed 26 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@NQ Z3short1Sep 15, 2023Sep 25, 2023$12,692
@MNQ Z3long40Sep 14, 2023Sep 15, 2023($9,695)
@M6B Z3short3Sep 12, 2023Sep 13, 2023$34
@JY Z3short1Sep 12, 2023Sep 13, 2023($46)
@M6B U3short15Sep 4, 2023Sep 12, 2023$227
@JY U3short1Sep 4, 2023Sep 5, 2023$192
@M6B U3long4Sep 1, 2023Sep 4, 2023($224)
QMGC Z3long1Sep 1, 2023Sep 1, 2023($141)
@M6B U3short6Aug 24, 2023Aug 30, 2023($11)
@JY U3short1Aug 25, 2023Aug 25, 2023($14)
@M6B U3long6Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($168)
@M6B U3short5Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($35)
@M6B U3long5Aug 23, 2023Aug 24, 2023($63)
BX U3long1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$274
BD U3short2Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($331)
@TY U3short1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($71)
QSI U3short1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$442
QGC Z3long1Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023($58)
QMGC Z3long10Aug 23, 2023Aug 24, 2023$27
@M6B U3short5Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($110)
BD U3short4Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$757
BD U3short4Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023$98
QMGC Z3long5Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($75)
QSI U3long1Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023$692
QGC Z3short1Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023($328)
@M6B U3short2Aug 18, 2023Aug 21, 2023($50)
@M6B U3long1Aug 17, 2023Aug 18, 2023($40)
@JY U3long1Aug 17, 2023Aug 17, 2023($8)
@YM U3short2Aug 16, 2023Aug 16, 2023$214
@MYM U3short10Aug 16, 2023Aug 16, 2023($664)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.