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Micro crude oil

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
44.0%
Max Drawdown
6.7%
Trades
258
Win Trades
50.4%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
18.2%

About this strategy

This system has been shut down.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20233.02.41.74.24.56.32.91.2-0.30.00.029.1
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/9/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$41,760
Age44 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades258
# Profitable130
% Profitable50.4%
Avg trade duration13.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown6.7%
drawdown periodMay 09, 2023 - May 17, 2023
Cumul. Return29.5%
Avg win$311
Avg loss$189

Ratios

W:L ratio1.67
Sharpe Ratio0.70
Sortino Ratio1.44
Calmar Ratio8.38

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life91.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)26.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)44.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)602
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)955
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)885

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$189
Avg Win$311
# Winners130
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,133
Sum Trade PL (winners)$40,401
Num Months Winners8
# Losers128
% Winners50.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table44

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)832.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)13.88
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago1109

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.98
Daily leverage (max)19.19

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index1.20

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.99
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.60
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.43
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.48
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.36
df7
t3.09
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.34
Sortino ratio42.76
Upside Potential Ratio44.10
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms2
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error6
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.27
t(a)2.80
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)2.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.47
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.40
df7
t3.13
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.39
Sortino ratio41.16
Upside Potential Ratio42.50
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms2
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error6
t(b)0.60
p(b)0.28
t(a)2.85
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)2.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.46
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.25
df181
t2.72
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.62
Sortino ratio7.48
Upside Potential Ratio12.75
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms106
N of observations182
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error180
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.47
t(a)2.70
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)7.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.45
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.21
df181
t2.69
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.58
Sortino ratio7.25
Upside Potential Ratio12.50
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms106
N of observations182
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error180
t(b)0.80
p(b)0.47
t(a)2.67
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)6.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.49
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.16
df130
t2.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.96
Sortino ratio6.98
Upside Potential Ratio12.06
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)18.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.47
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.11
df130
t2.21
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.91
Sortino ratio6.75
Upside Potential Ratio11.82
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.47
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.20
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)17.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.47
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.02
Median1.05
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations182
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high31
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-9.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-309947360
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)8
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.64
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)93.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.34
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal38.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.65
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)13.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs17.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal37.58

Trading record

Placed 100 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES Z3long3.84Sep 14, 2023Sep 14, 2023$3,257
@ES Z3long1.92Sep 13, 2023Sep 14, 2023($123)
@ES Z3long0.96Sep 13, 2023Sep 13, 2023$76
@ES Z3long1.92Sep 12, 2023Sep 12, 2023($753)
QMCL X3long1.92Sep 12, 2023Sep 12, 2023$231
@ES Z3short0.96Sep 12, 2023Sep 12, 2023($404)
QMCL V3long1.92Sep 11, 2023Sep 12, 2023$61
QMCL V3long0.96Sep 6, 2023Sep 7, 2023($50)
@ES U3long3.84Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($751)
@ES U3long3.84Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($7)
@ES U3long1.92Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($87)
@CD U3short0.96Sep 4, 2023Sep 5, 2023$194
@ES U3short1.92Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($303)
@ES U3long0.96Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($440)
@MES U3short4.8Sep 5, 2023Sep 5, 2023($30)
@MCD U3long1.92Aug 29, 2023Sep 4, 2023($15)
QMCL V3long0.96Aug 29, 2023Aug 29, 2023($98)
QMCL V3long5.76Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($4)
QMCL V3short0.96Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($28)
QMCL V3long0.96Aug 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($61)
@NE U3short0.96Aug 25, 2023Aug 25, 2023($308)
QMCL V3short0.96Aug 24, 2023Aug 24, 2023$1
@MCD U3short0.96Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($20)
QMCL V3short0.96Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($9)
@CD U3short1.92Aug 23, 2023Aug 23, 2023($68)
@CD U3long0.96Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023($109)
@AD U3short0.96Aug 22, 2023Aug 23, 2023$227
@M6A U3short9.6Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023$45
@M6A U3long10.56Aug 22, 2023Aug 22, 2023($243)
@MES U3long1.92Aug 21, 2023Aug 22, 2023$106

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.