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Elcano

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.4%
Max Drawdown
23.2%
Trades
624
Win Trades
64.7%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
66.0%
Subscribe $125/mo

Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.5-0.5
20234.4-3.69.80.10.10.60.92.3-4.8-4.0-1.63.87.5
2024-1.44.12.3-0.23.3-0.9-1.16.06.70.40.8-2.118.8
20251.04.1-5.7-4.28.14.32.2-3.92.15.73.90.418.4
20266.82.57.32.52.01.64.7-2.7-6.7-3.015.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/26/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age47 months
C2 Rank284
What it tradesStocks
# Trades624
# Profitable404
% Profitable64.7%
Avg trade duration1.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.2%
drawdown periodMarch 05, 2025 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.4%
Avg win$222
Avg loss$291

Ratios

W:L ratio1.44
Sharpe Ratio0.74
Sortino Ratio1.09
Calmar Ratio1.31

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.41
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life98.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-25.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)20.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered89.5%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss17.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)419
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)782
C2 Score284
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)694

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$291
Avg Win$222
# Winners404
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,063
Sum Trade PL (winners)$89,863
Num Months Winners32
# Losers220
% Winners64.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct939

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table47

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2567.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)42.79
Avg Trade Length1.80
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.33
Daily leverage (max)4.12

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.43
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades265.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.84
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.70
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df44
t2.95
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.55
Sortino ratio2.66
Upside Potential Ratio3.88
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms10
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error43
t(b)2.98
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.00
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.18
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.42
df44
t2.81
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio2.43
Upside Potential Ratio3.63
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms10
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error43
t(b)3.26
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.89
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.17
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df992
t2.48
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.88
Upside Potential Ratio8.04
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms549
N negative terms444
N of observations993
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error991
t(b)14.64
p(b)0
t(a)1.72
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.16
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.21
df992
t2.35
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio1.75
Upside Potential Ratio7.85
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms549
N negative terms444
N of observations993
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error991
t(b)14.98
p(b)0
t(a)1.64
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df130
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio7.77
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.74
p(b)0.19
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.02
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df130
t-0.12
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.61
Sortino ratio-0.23
Upside Potential Ratio7.69
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.75
p(b)0.19
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations45
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-14.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations993
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high55
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations65
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411463872
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)33
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.80
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.90

Trading record

Placed 95 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY long120Oct 15, 2026Oct 20, 2026($435)
SPY short40Oct 15, 2026Oct 15, 2026($70)
SPY long200Oct 12, 2026Oct 15, 2026($533)
SPY long40Oct 7, 2026Oct 9, 2026$46
SPY long80Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026$252
SPY short40Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026($21)
SPY long40Oct 5, 2026Oct 6, 2026$177
SPY short41Oct 2, 2026Oct 5, 2026($197)
SPY long80Sep 30, 2026Oct 2, 2026$488
SPY long40Sep 28, 2026Sep 29, 2026($67)
SPY long40Sep 24, 2026Sep 25, 2026$163
SPY long240Sep 21, 2026Sep 24, 2026($345)
SPY short126Sep 18, 2026Sep 21, 2026($1,134)
SPY long84Sep 17, 2026Sep 18, 2026($136)
SPY short42Sep 17, 2026Sep 17, 2026($14)
SPY long126Sep 11, 2026Sep 17, 2026($187)
SPY short42Sep 11, 2026Sep 11, 2026($6)
SPY long126Sep 4, 2026Sep 11, 2026($728)
SPY long84Sep 2, 2026Sep 3, 2026$467
SPY short43Sep 1, 2026Sep 2, 2026($183)
SPY long173Aug 27, 2026Sep 1, 2026($1,092)
SPY short129Aug 26, 2026Aug 27, 2026($403)
SPY long129Aug 24, 2026Aug 26, 2026$294
SPY long129Aug 19, 2026Aug 21, 2026($306)
SPY short86Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026$162
SPY long129Aug 14, 2026Aug 18, 2026($975)
SPY short43Aug 13, 2026Aug 14, 2026$61
SPY long86Aug 12, 2026Aug 13, 2026$328
SPY short43Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$53

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.