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Cali Nevada Short Bias

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
22.9%
Max Drawdown
45.5%
Trades
202
Win Trades
55.9%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
48.9%
Subscribe $99/mo

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202212.212.2
2023-15.7-8.92.70.6-3.2-17.3-8.535.19.6-6.239.313.327.7
2024-8.69.7-9.70.9-1.912.7-1.51.74.45.362.8-1.478.2
2025-0.54.8-2.0-6.6-0.15.3-2.41.8-6.1-3.65.2-15.2-19.6
20260.86.79.4-12.9-1.02.6-1.99.8-3.50.08.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/4/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age47 months
C2 Rank366
What it tradesStocks
# Trades202
# Profitable113
% Profitable55.9%
Avg trade duration19.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown45.5%
drawdown periodDec 28, 2022 - July 14, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)22.9%
Avg win$538
Avg loss$469

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio0.59
Sortino Ratio1.07
Calmar Ratio0.93

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life91.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)30.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)22.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)31.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss52.0%
Chance of 20% account loss33.5%
Chance of 30% account loss12.5%
Chance of 40% account loss5.5%
Chance of 50% account loss1.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)432
C2 Score366
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$469
Avg Win$538
# Winners113
Sum Trade PL (losers)$41,719
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,786
Num Months Winners23
# Losers89
% Winners55.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-17

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table47

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)28547.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)475.79
Avg Trade Length19.80
Last Trade Ago16

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.56
Daily leverage (max)3.36

Regression

Alpha0.08
Beta-0.16
Treynor Index-0.43

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.75
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.04
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df44
t1.57
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio2.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.83
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms21
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error43
t(b)-1.10
p(b)0.86
t(a)1.83
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.26
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df44
t1.38
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio3.20
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms21
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance-0.01
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error43
t(b)-1.21
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.67
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.30
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df988
t1.91
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio1.78
Upside Potential Ratio7.30
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms447
N negative terms542
N of observations989
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error987
t(b)-2.19
p(b)0.99
t(a)2.05
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.26
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df988
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms447
N negative terms542
N of observations989
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error987
t(b)-2.18
p(b)0.99
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.08
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.62
df130
t-0.44
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio-0.85
Upside Potential Ratio3.33
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.09
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df130
t-0.48
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio-0.92
Upside Potential Ratio3.23
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms98
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)0.09
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.49
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.55
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations45
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations989
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low104
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high93
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.95
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.08
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27
Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400155328
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)198
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.63
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.48

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
APUS short200Sep 24, 2026Sep 25, 2026($520)
SQQQ2611I40 long3Sep 10, 2026Sep 12, 2026($158)
MB short200Aug 7, 2026Aug 10, 2026$278
WYHG short100Aug 6, 2026Aug 7, 2026$1,360
YXT short100Aug 5, 2026Aug 6, 2026$551
DFNS short55Jul 28, 2026Jul 29, 2026($757)
FIEE short100Jul 27, 2026Jul 28, 2026$240
AZ short150Jul 14, 2026Jul 28, 2026($44)
ZCMD short200Jul 22, 2026Jul 23, 2026$190
NVVE short100Jul 8, 2026Jul 9, 2026$121
BOXL long100Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026($26)
CELZ short300Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026$417
ILLR short300Jun 25, 2026Jun 29, 2026($171)
DSY short100Jun 10, 2026Jun 11, 2026$297
QQQD long100Apr 13, 2026Jun 11, 2026($56)
GLW2601E185 long3Apr 24, 2026May 2, 2026($2,402)
ENVB short300Apr 20, 2026Apr 22, 2026$72
GUSH2617D48 long1Mar 31, 2026Apr 18, 2026($311)
QQQD2617D16 long3Apr 7, 2026Apr 18, 2026($377)
ARTL short100Mar 27, 2026Mar 30, 2026$880
MLEC short100Feb 13, 2026Mar 27, 2026$137
GUSH long40Mar 2, 2026Mar 27, 2026$567
EEIQ short200Mar 26, 2026Mar 27, 2026$304
JLHL short100Feb 2, 2026Mar 26, 2026($168)
CTSH short20Dec 30, 2025Feb 4, 2026$186
VNCE short200Dec 30, 2025Feb 2, 2026$242
INBS long100Jan 7, 2026Feb 2, 2026($520)
FLYX short200Jan 8, 2026Feb 2, 2026$766
PHOE short18Jan 30, 2026Feb 2, 2026$2,018
INBS short100Dec 31, 2025Jan 7, 2026($442)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.