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Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
123.3%
Max Drawdown
74.7%
Trades
82
Win Trades
63.4%
Profit Factor
2.70
Win Months
8.2%

About this strategy

Trade when it's closed, don't trade when it's opening.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20223.14.212.721.0
202376.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.076.4
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/13/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age49 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades82
# Profitable52
% Profitable63.4%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown74.7%
drawdown periodJan 09, 2023 - Jan 19, 2023
Cumul. Return113.5%
Avg win$1,783
Avg loss$1,134

Ratios

W:L ratio2.73
Sharpe Ratio0.48
Sortino Ratio0.93
Calmar Ratio1.57

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life109.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)92.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)123.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss71.0%
Chance of 20% account loss64.5%
Chance of 30% account loss43.0%
Chance of 40% account loss29.0%
Chance of 50% account loss16.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)8.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated95.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,134
Avg Win$1,783
# Winners52
Sum Trade PL (losers)$34,005
Sum Trade PL (winners)$92,717
Num Months Winners4
# Losers30
% Winners63.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table49

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1447.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)24.13
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago1367

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.64
Daily leverage (max)58.19

Regression

Alpha0.07
Beta0.17
Treynor Index0.47

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.17
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.48

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.81
SD1.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df9
t0.86
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.05
Sortino ratio6.13
Upside Potential Ratio7.28
Upside part of mean2.15
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD1.87
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms7
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion1.81
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion1.92
Covariance0.05
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.38
Mean Square Error4.02
DF error8
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.87
Treynor index (mean / b)0.84
Jensen alpha (a)1.38
Mean0.90
SD1.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df9
t0.70
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.88
Sortino ratio2.63
Upside Potential Ratio3.78
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD1.09
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms7
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.90
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion1.17
Covariance0.03
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error1.49
DF error8
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean1.43
SD1.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df238
t1.11
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.21
Sortino ratio2.80
Upside Potential Ratio5.02
Upside part of mean2.56
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD1.12
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms202
N of observations239
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion1.43
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.23
Covariance0.02
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.97
Mean Square Error1.50
DF error237
t(b)1.52
p(b)0.06
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.82
Treynor index (mean / b)1.96
Jensen alpha (a)1.28
Mean0.82
SD1.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df238
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.83
Sortino ratio1.31
Upside Potential Ratio3.39
Upside part of mean2.13
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms202
N of observations239
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.82
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion1.06
Covariance0.02
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.71
Mean Square Error1.12
DF error237
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.07
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.90
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.71
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819941525225472
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.33493326048913e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.73
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum2.71
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.60
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.89
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations239
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.90
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high37
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.27
Quartile 10.27
Median0.27
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.59
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-345890496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.35
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@NQ H3long5Jan 27, 2023Jan 27, 2023$22,260
QCL J3long2Jan 23, 2023Jan 27, 2023$1,074
@NQ H3long9Jan 12, 2023Jan 26, 2023$37,353
@NQ H3long4Jan 10, 2023Jan 10, 2023($7,362)
@NQ H3long4Jan 9, 2023Jan 9, 2023($9,397)
@NQ H3long1Jan 8, 2023Jan 9, 2023$4,267
@NQ H3long1Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023$42
@NQ H3short2Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023($56)
XG H3short2Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023$1,298
BX H3short5Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023$4,695
@NQ H3short2Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023($7,156)
@MNQ H3short5Jan 5, 2023Jan 5, 2023($185)
@NQ H3short1Jan 5, 2023Jan 5, 2023($658)
@NQ H3short1Jan 3, 2023Jan 3, 2023$227
@MNQ H3long5Jan 3, 2023Jan 3, 2023$30
XG H3short2Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022$251
XG H3short1Dec 22, 2022Dec 22, 2022$2,034
DXM H3short5Dec 22, 2022Dec 22, 2022$1,922
DXM H3short5Dec 15, 2022Dec 15, 2022$2,828
@NQ Z2short1Dec 12, 2022Dec 12, 2022($18)
DXM Z2short5Dec 5, 2022Dec 5, 2022$312
@M6B Z2short2Dec 1, 2022Dec 2, 2022($11)
@M6E Z2long2Dec 1, 2022Dec 2, 2022$58
DXM Z2short4Dec 1, 2022Dec 2, 2022($896)
EX Z2short5Dec 1, 2022Dec 1, 2022$118
@M6E Z2long10Nov 23, 2022Dec 1, 2022$490
BD Z2short5Dec 1, 2022Dec 1, 2022$275
@M6B Z2short5Nov 23, 2022Dec 1, 2022($494)
@M6E Z2short2Nov 22, 2022Nov 23, 2022($40)
@M6B Z2long3Nov 22, 2022Nov 23, 2022$13

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.