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FXFMKL

Futures · Forex · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.2%
Max Drawdown
14.5%
Trades
1536
Win Trades
55.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
33.3%

About this strategy

1. First, I appreciate all Investors who have subscribed to my strategy trading.

2. This trading strategy is designed for people who want to trade with the lowest risk.

3. Recommended leverage currency account is 20:1.

4. FXAMKL trading strategy is only for trading in the forex market.

5. The strategy is based on fundamental research and technical analysis

6. The trading strategy is only Manual Trading (No EA).

7. My trading strategy is intraday trading.


Risk Management:

1. This trading strategy is designed for people who want to trade with the lowest level of risk.

2. I do not use martingale or average down.

3. Most of the time, all positions are closed at the end of the day.

Macro / Fundamental Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20222.00.50.02.5-0.60.34.8
20231.8-0.2-0.5-0.92.3-0.4-1.81.40.8-0.42.0-1.91.9
2024-0.5-1.3-0.4-3.8-2.5-2.89.61.20.9-5.51.21.0-3.6
2025-1.44.8-2.53.3-2.6-2.9-3.41.10.00.0-0.00.0-3.8
20260.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/10/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age51 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades1536
# Profitable852
% Profitable55.5%
Avg trade duration3.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.5%
drawdown periodDec 07, 2023 - July 11, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.2%
Avg win$36
Avg loss$38

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.36
Calmar Ratio0.26

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-98.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss20.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$38
Avg Win$36
# Winners852
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,034
Sum Trade PL (winners)$30,388
Num Months Winners26
# Losers684
% Winners55.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table51

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4901.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)81.69
Avg Trade Length3.40
Last Trade Ago400

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.77
Daily leverage (max)3.10

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades10.04
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.78
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df32
t0.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms17
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error31
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df32
t0.06
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio1.91
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms17
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error31
t(b)-1.30
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.55
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df740
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio0.10
Upside Potential Ratio6.90
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms254
N negative terms487
N of observations741
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error739
t(b)-5.19
p(b)1
t(a)0.50
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df740
t0.04
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio6.81
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms254
N negative terms487
N of observations741
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error739
t(b)-5.30
p(b)1
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.08
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.84
df130
t-1.31
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.94
Sortino ratio-2.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms126
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.89
p(b)0.55
t(a)-1.11
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)3.69
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.08
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.85
df130
t-1.32
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio-2.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.66
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms126
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.89
p(b)0.55
t(a)-1.13
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)3.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations741
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high66
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations1
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-406186336
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)217
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.72
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.46
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-9.07

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$33
EUR/GBP long10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$27
GBP/AUD short10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$48
GBP/CAD short10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$33
GBP/CHF short10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$35
GBP/NZD short10Aug 14, 2024Aug 14, 2024$52
EUR/NZD long10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$67
NZD/CHF short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$43
AUD/NZD long10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$40
NZD/CAD short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$41
GBP/NZD long10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$83
NZD/USD short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$43
EUR/GBP long10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024($20)
GBP/CAD short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024($19)
GBP/NZD short20Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024$7
GBP/AUD short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024($16)
GBP/CHF short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024($1)
GBP/USD short10Aug 13, 2024Aug 13, 2024($25)
GBP/USD short10Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024$34
NZD/USD short10Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024($5)
USD/CHF long20Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024$27
AUD/USD short10Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024($11)
EUR/USD short10Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024($50)
USD/CAD long10Aug 5, 2024Aug 5, 2024($37)
GBP/USD long10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024$11
AUD/USD long10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024($2)
NZD/USD long10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024($4)
USD/CAD short10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024($1)
USD/CHF short10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024($7)
EUR/USD long10Jul 22, 2024Jul 22, 2024$2

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.