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Faith Trend

Futures · Futures · Started May 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-45.0%
Max Drawdown
96.3%
Trades
200
Win Trades
57.5%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
11.3%

About this strategy

trade stock Index, when the trend is going on, just have faith on it.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20221.92.46.28.19.5-2.21.1-0.329.4
2023-47.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-47.9
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/23/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$42,500
Age53 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades200
# Profitable115
% Profitable57.5%
Avg trade duration15.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown96.3%
drawdown periodOct 18, 2022 - Jan 12, 2023
Cumul. Return-32.3%
Avg win$274
Avg loss$501

Ratios

W:L ratio0.74
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Sortino Ratio-0.26
Calmar Ratio-0.47

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-32.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-45.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity98.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss67.5%
Chance of 20% account loss32.0%
Chance of 30% account loss5.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)678
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)953
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)897

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$501
Avg Win$274
# Winners115
Sum Trade PL (losers)$42,586
Sum Trade PL (winners)$31,480
Num Months Winners6
# Losers85
% Winners57.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table53

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)936.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)15.61
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1354

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2
Daily leverage (max)22.48

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index0.30

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.98
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.14
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.34

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.52
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.39
df6
t2.98
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.60
Sortino ratio58.03
Upside Potential Ratio59.34
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms1
N of observations7
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error5
t(b)0.88
p(b)0.21
t(a)3.01
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)2.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.50
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.43
df6
t3.01
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.65
Sortino ratio55.85
Upside Potential Ratio57.16
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms1
N of observations7
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error5
t(b)0.87
p(b)0.21
t(a)3.05
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)2.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.20
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df167
t-0.51
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio-0.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms85
N of observations168
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error166
t(b)-1.63
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
Mean-0.25
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.75
df167
t-0.60
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio-0.81
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.92
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms85
N of observations168
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error166
t(b)-1.64
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.62
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)1.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.48
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.37
df130
t-0.97
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio-1.48
Upside Potential Ratio1.91
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.48
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.46
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)-1.52
p(b)0.58
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)2.44
Jensen alpha (a)-0.46
Mean-0.54
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.47
df130
t-1.04
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.31
Sortino ratio-1.57
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-1.15
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.54
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.53
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)-1.53
p(b)0.58
t(a)-1.02
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)2.60
Jensen alpha (a)-0.53
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.02
Median1.03
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 11.01
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations168
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-326807200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)86
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)154.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.45
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.44

Trading record

Placed 337 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@YM H3long18Jan 12, 2023Jan 12, 2023($3,489)
@ES H3long6Jan 12, 2023Jan 12, 2023($7,136)
@ES H3long4Jan 6, 2023Jan 9, 2023($4,882)
@ES H3long4Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023$1,368
@ES H3short4Jan 6, 2023Jan 6, 2023($10,224)
@EU H3short2Jan 5, 2023Jan 5, 2023($29)
@YM H3short2Jan 5, 2023Jan 5, 2023($109)
@M6E H3short1Jan 3, 2023Jan 4, 2023($110)
@YM H3long2Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023($856)
@MYM H3long10Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023($468)
@MYM H3short10Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023($362)
@MYM H3long5Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023($40)
@MYM H3short5Jan 4, 2023Jan 4, 2023($147)
@MYM H3short10Jan 3, 2023Jan 3, 2023$327
@MYM H3long1Jan 2, 2023Jan 3, 2023$13
@M6E H3long2Jan 2, 2023Jan 3, 2023($207)
@MYM H3short1Dec 30, 2022Dec 30, 2022($3)
@MYM H3long5Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022$160
@MYM H3short5Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022($75)
@MYM H3short5Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022($55)
@M6B H3short2Dec 28, 2022Dec 29, 2022$58
@M6E H3short2Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022($100)
@MES H3short5Dec 29, 2022Dec 29, 2022($44)
@ES H3short1Dec 28, 2022Dec 28, 2022$411
@ES H3short2Dec 28, 2022Dec 28, 2022$334
@MES H3short5Dec 28, 2022Dec 28, 2022$50
@ES H3short2Dec 27, 2022Dec 27, 2022($66)
@ES H3short1Dec 27, 2022Dec 27, 2022($221)
@ES H3short1Dec 27, 2022Dec 27, 2022($146)
@ES H3short2Dec 27, 2022Dec 27, 2022$447

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.