Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy MT3 Algotrading +75.8% Annual Return (Compounded) since Mar 31, 2023 Hypothetical

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SP500 stock catch spikes
(140535824)

Created by: FabianKlare FabianKlare
Started: 05/2022
Stocks
Last trade: 4 days ago
Trading style: Equity Short-term Reversal

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $49.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Short-term Reversal
Category: Equity

Short-term Reversal

Exploits the tendency of stocks with strong gains and stocks with strong losses to reverse in a short-term time frame (up to one month).
1.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(16.5%)
Max Drawdown
1704
Num Trades
56.6%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
56.2%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022                            +3.7%+1.4%+1.2%(0.3%)(2.1%)+8.4%+4.9%(0.2%)+17.9%
2023+0.4%(0.3%)(3.8%)+0.6%+0.4%(0.1%)+1.4%(2.1%)(1.6%)(0.2%)+4.0%+2.1%+0.4%
2024(1.7%)+1.6%+1.2%(2.5%)+0.9%+0.1%+1.6%(6.5%)+1.3%(4.8%)+2.3%(5.7%)(12%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 48 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 154 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 665 days ago.

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
12/18/24 15:45 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 3 435.70 12/24 12:59 461.77 0.11%
Trade id #150357860
Max drawdown($54)
Time12/20/24 0:00
Quant open3
Worst price417.64
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 $78
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.06
12/18/24 15:11 WBD WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC. SERIES A LONG 124 10.77 12/23 9:30 10.64 0.09%
Trade id #150357133
Max drawdown($48)
Time12/20/24 0:00
Quant open124
Worst price10.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($18)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.48
12/20/24 10:10 FDX FEDEX LONG 4 272.30 12/23 9:30 274.00 0.01%
Trade id #150375002
Max drawdown($5)
Time12/20/24 10:13
Quant open4
Worst price271.02
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $7
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.08
12/18/24 15:45 LRCX LAM RESEARCH LONG 17 74.66 12/20 15:59 71.80 0.15%
Trade id #150357845
Max drawdown($76)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open17
Worst price70.16
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 ($49)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.34
12/18/24 15:44 EL ESTEE LAUDER COS LONG 17 75.15 12/20 15:59 74.42 0.04%
Trade id #150357801
Max drawdown($21)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open17
Worst price73.89
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($12)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.34
12/2/24 10:42 IP INTERNATIONAL PAPER LONG 24 57.57 12/20 9:30 53.67 0.21%
Trade id #150222197
Max drawdown($108)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open24
Worst price53.05
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 ($94)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.48
12/3/24 9:55 SJM J.M. SMUCKER LONG 11 117.70 12/20 9:30 108.55 0.2%
Trade id #150231332
Max drawdown($100)
Time12/20/24 9:30
Quant open11
Worst price108.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 ($101)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
12/3/24 9:55 UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE LONG 10 131.75 12/20 9:30 124.04 0.18%
Trade id #150231324
Max drawdown($94)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price122.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($77)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
12/3/24 9:53 KR KROGER LONG 23 59.41 12/20 9:30 61.70 0.07%
Trade id #150231299
Max drawdown($39)
Time12/9/24 0:00
Quant open23
Worst price57.69
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $53
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.46
12/3/24 15:57 D DOMINION RESOURCES LONG 24 56.72 12/20 9:30 53.01 0.2%
Trade id #150236524
Max drawdown($102)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open24
Worst price52.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 ($89)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.48
12/3/24 9:36 UNP UNION PACIFIC LONG 5 237.84 12/20 9:30 223.12 0.15%
Trade id #150231013
Max drawdown($79)
Time12/20/24 9:30
Quant open5
Worst price222.02
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 ($74)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
12/3/24 15:57 DUK DUKE ENERGY LONG 12 113.83 12/20 9:30 107.16 0.18%
Trade id #150236516
Max drawdown($98)
Time12/18/24 0:00
Quant open12
Worst price105.63
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($80)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.24
12/3/24 9:53 EPAM EPAM SYSTEMS LONG 5 241.77 12/20 9:30 242.77 0.03%
Trade id #150231292
Max drawdown($13)
Time12/5/24 0:00
Quant open5
Worst price239.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $5
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
12/3/24 15:55 AEP AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER LONG 14 97.24 12/20 9:30 91.84 0.18%
Trade id #150236490
Max drawdown($95)
Time12/19/24 0:00
Quant open14
Worst price90.42
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($76)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.28
12/3/24 9:47 NKE NIKE LONG 17 77.67 12/20 9:30 75.96 0.08%
Trade id #150231220
Max drawdown($40)
Time12/20/24 9:30
Quant open17
Worst price75.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 ($29)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.34
12/3/24 11:49 CAT CATERPILLAR LONG 3 396.78 12/20 9:30 358.50 0.23%
Trade id #150233927
Max drawdown($118)
Time12/20/24 9:30
Quant open3
Worst price357.24
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
 ($115)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.06
12/19/24 9:55 KMX CARMAX LONG 15 84.55 12/20 9:30 84.23 0.05%
Trade id #150364019
Max drawdown($23)
Time12/19/24 13:19
Quant open15
Worst price82.98
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.30
12/19/24 11:02 LW LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS INC LONG 21 61.04 12/20 9:30 62.50 0.04%
Trade id #150364815
Max drawdown($22)
Time12/19/24 12:47
Quant open21
Worst price59.97
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $31
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.42
12/18/24 15:55 PSX PHILLIPS 66 LONG 11 111.85 12/19 15:59 110.34 0.05%
Trade id #150358371
Max drawdown($27)
Time12/19/24 13:26
Quant open11
Worst price109.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($17)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
12/2/24 10:10 VLO VALERO ENERGY LONG 10 136.48 12/19 15:59 118.87 0.38%
Trade id #150221834
Max drawdown($193)
Time12/19/24 13:26
Quant open10
Worst price117.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.38%
 ($176)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
12/18/24 15:38 WDC WESTERN DIGITAL LONG 21 63.54 12/19 15:59 59.63 0.17%
Trade id #150357603
Max drawdown($86)
Time12/19/24 15:51
Quant open21
Worst price59.41
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 ($82)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.42
12/18/24 15:28 TECH BIO-TECHNE CORP COMMON STOCK LONG 18 72.16 12/19 15:59 71.35 0.09%
Trade id #150357432
Max drawdown($48)
Time12/19/24 9:45
Quant open18
Worst price69.48
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($15)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.36
12/18/24 14:07 NOW SERVICENOW LONG 1 1091.65 12/19 15:59 1075.42 0.07%
Trade id #150355986
Max drawdown($34)
Time12/18/24 15:45
Quant open1
Worst price1056.99
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($16)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.02
12/3/24 10:05 PSA PUBLIC STORAGE LONG 4 340.28 12/19 15:59 289.15 0.4%
Trade id #150231531
Max drawdown($206)
Time12/19/24 15:57
Quant open4
Worst price288.67
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
 ($205)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.08
12/13/24 15:55 UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC LONG 22 59.89 12/19 15:59 60.19 0.02%
Trade id #150323289
Max drawdown($12)
Time12/17/24 0:00
Quant open22
Worst price59.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $7
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.44
12/13/24 12:40 STLD STEEL DYNAMICS LONG 11 122.50 12/19 15:59 115.35 0.16%
Trade id #150321736
Max drawdown($84)
Time12/19/24 12:31
Quant open11
Worst price114.79
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 ($79)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
12/16/24 10:01 UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP LONG 2 514.78 12/19 15:59 488.52 0.14%
Trade id #150333849
Max drawdown($77)
Time12/17/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price475.82
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 ($53)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.04
12/18/24 15:40 RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP LONG 5 231.53 12/19 15:59 230.60 0.04%
Trade id #150357649
Max drawdown($18)
Time12/19/24 12:28
Quant open5
Worst price227.90
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
12/18/24 13:03 PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC LONG 6 221.13 12/19 15:59 207.07 0.18%
Trade id #150355225
Max drawdown($93)
Time12/19/24 13:04
Quant open6
Worst price205.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($84)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.12
12/13/24 12:01 NUE NUCOR LONG 10 126.76 12/19 15:59 115.70 0.22%
Trade id #150321447
Max drawdown($114)
Time12/19/24 12:44
Quant open10
Worst price115.29
Drawdown as % of equity-0.22%
 ($111)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    5/19/2022
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    953.62
  • Age
    32 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    1704
  • # Profitable
    964
  • % Profitable
    56.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    6.1 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    16.54%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 12, 2023 - Dec 20, 2024
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    1.6%
  • Avg win
    $52.82
  • Avg loss
    $62.09
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $32,899
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $33,393
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.12:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.01
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.01
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.35
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -48.83%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.45880
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    53.07%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    0
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    1.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    18.00%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.72%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.016%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    4.2%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    29.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    0.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    93.63%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    308
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $62
  • Avg Win
    $53
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $45,946.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    32
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $50,921.000
  • # Winners
    964
  • Num Months Winners
    18
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    694
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    740
  • % Winners
    56.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    8735.23
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    145.59
  • Avg Trade Length
    6.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    0.34
  • Daily leverage (max)
    1.67
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.01
  • Beta
    0.25
  • Treynor Index
    0.00
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.51
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    200.332
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.667
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.537
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.008
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.02037
  • SD
    0.08788
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.23185
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.22600
  • df
    30.00000
  • t
    0.37264
  • p
    0.35602
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.99085
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.45078
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.99478
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.44677
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.40748
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.33674
  • Upside part of mean
    0.11684
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09646
  • Upside SD
    0.07077
  • Downside SD
    0.05000
  • N nonnegative terms
    16.00000
  • N negative terms
    15.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    31.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15218
  • Mean of criterion
    0.02037
  • SD of predictor
    0.14250
  • SD of criterion
    0.08788
  • Covariance
    0.00436
  • r
    0.34798
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21459
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01228
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00702
  • DF error
    29.00000
  • t(b)
    1.99885
  • p(b)
    0.02754
  • t(a)
    -0.22481
  • p(a)
    0.58815
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00498
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43416
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.12402
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09946
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.09495
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01228
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.01665
  • SD
    0.08672
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.19198
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.18713
  • df
    30.00000
  • t
    0.30857
  • p
    0.37989
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.02997
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.41080
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.03322
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.40749
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.32815
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.25011
  • Upside part of mean
    0.11416
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09751
  • Upside SD
    0.06875
  • Downside SD
    0.05074
  • N nonnegative terms
    16.00000
  • N negative terms
    15.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    31.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14119
  • Mean of criterion
    0.01665
  • SD of predictor
    0.14208
  • SD of criterion
    0.08672
  • Covariance
    0.00412
  • r
    0.33431
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.20406
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01216
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00691
  • DF error
    29.00000
  • t(b)
    1.91025
  • p(b)
    0.03302
  • t(a)
    -0.22574
  • p(a)
    0.58851
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01442
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.42254
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.12235
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09802
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.08159
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01216
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03901
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04897
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01837
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03338
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    31.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95613
  • Quartile 1
    0.98804
  • Median
    1.00387
  • Quartile 3
    1.01110
  • Maximum
    1.07324
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97701
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99669
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00658
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03614
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02305
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.09677
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.06025
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.30930
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02640
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.04155
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.63565
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02505
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.05570
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    6.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00077
  • Quartile 1
    0.00184
  • Median
    0.00636
  • Quartile 3
    0.03405
  • Maximum
    0.09761
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00118
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00259
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01012
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.06981
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03220
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.09761
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.04722
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.04556
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.46680
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.65263
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.93047
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.01718
  • SD
    0.08334
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.20610
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.20587
  • df
    677.00000
  • t
    0.33154
  • p
    0.37017
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.01238
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.42448
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.01257
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.42430
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.29629
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.10960
  • Upside part of mean
    0.35419
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.33701
  • Upside SD
    0.05980
  • Downside SD
    0.05797
  • N nonnegative terms
    329.00000
  • N negative terms
    349.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    678.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14990
  • Mean of criterion
    0.01718
  • SD of predictor
    0.16295
  • SD of criterion
    0.08334
  • Covariance
    0.00628
  • r
    0.46248
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.23654
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01800
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00547
  • DF error
    676.00000
  • t(b)
    13.56210
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    -0.39705
  • p(a)
    0.65427
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.20229
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.27078
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10869
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.07212
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.07262
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01828
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.01371
  • SD
    0.08332
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.16453
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.16434
  • df
    677.00000
  • t
    0.26467
  • p
    0.39567
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.05394
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.38289
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.05407
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.38276
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.23401
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.01552
  • Upside part of mean
    0.35239
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.33868
  • Upside SD
    0.05917
  • Downside SD
    0.05858
  • N nonnegative terms
    329.00000
  • N negative terms
    349.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    678.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.13660
  • Mean of criterion
    0.01371
  • SD of predictor
    0.16290
  • SD of criterion
    0.08332
  • Covariance
    0.00626
  • r
    0.46151
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.23606
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.01854
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00547
  • DF error
    676.00000
  • t(b)
    13.52590
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    -0.40260
  • p(a)
    0.65631
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.20179
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.27032
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10894
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.07187
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.05807
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.01854
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00838
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01051
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00295
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00642
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    678.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96130
  • Quartile 1
    0.99899
  • Median
    1.00008
  • Quartile 3
    1.00144
  • Maximum
    1.04086
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99542
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99966
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00067
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00494
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00245
  • Number outliers low
    44.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06490
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98930
  • Number of outliers high
    45.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06637
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01124
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.43731
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00376
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00799
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.45282
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00365
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00786
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    30.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00009
  • Quartile 1
    0.00074
  • Median
    0.00336
  • Quartile 3
    0.01415
  • Maximum
    0.12151
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00027
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00185
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00852
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.04159
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01341
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07453
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.24728
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04037
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.06674
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.50275
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04585
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.10149
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.04394
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.04249
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.34970
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.02182
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.04389
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.23526
  • SD
    0.09040
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -2.60240
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -2.58736
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.84018
  • p
    0.57967
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -5.38734
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.19226
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -5.37695
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.20223
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.87704
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.60497
  • Upside part of mean
    0.29479
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.53005
  • Upside SD
    0.04043
  • Downside SD
    0.08177
  • N nonnegative terms
    57.00000
  • N negative terms
    74.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15470
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.23526
  • SD of predictor
    0.14330
  • SD of criterion
    0.09040
  • Covariance
    0.00738
  • r
    0.56939
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.35921
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.29083
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00557
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    7.86670
  • p(b)
    0.15819
  • t(a)
    -2.75039
  • p(a)
    0.64844
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.26887
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.44956
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.50005
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.08162
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.65494
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.29083
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.23944
  • SD
    0.09113
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -2.62759
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -2.61240
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.85799
  • p
    0.58042
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -5.41276
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.16742
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -5.40234
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.17753
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.89544
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.55446
  • Upside part of mean
    0.29394
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.53339
  • Upside SD
    0.04026
  • Downside SD
    0.08270
  • N nonnegative terms
    57.00000
  • N negative terms
    74.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14442
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.23944
  • SD of predictor
    0.14364
  • SD of criterion
    0.09113
  • Covariance
    0.00745
  • r
    0.56947
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.36127
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.29162
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00565
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    7.86849
  • p(b)
    0.15814
  • t(a)
    -2.73691
  • p(a)
    0.64776
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00800
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.27043
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.45211
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.50243
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.08081
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.66279
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.29162
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01012
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01245
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00496
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01036
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96920
  • Quartile 1
    0.99781
  • Median
    0.99995
  • Quartile 3
    1.00125
  • Maximum
    1.01373
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99315
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99904
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00057
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00411
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00344
  • Number outliers low
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06107
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98351
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01073
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.64792
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00730
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02192
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.51020
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00629
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01389
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00435
  • Quartile 1
    0.00650
  • Median
    0.00950
  • Quartile 3
    0.03921
  • Maximum
    0.12151
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00435
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00722
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01178
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12151
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03271
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.12151
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -348802000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    677
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.20073
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.19066
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.56905
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.56905
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -15.31860

Strategy Description

The same trades as my TOS strategy, but the leverage ist < 2.
For more information see my TOS strategy:
https://collective2.com/details/140513127
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2022-05-19
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
1704
# Profitable
964
% Profitable
56.6%
Net Dividends
$693
Correlation S&P500
0.459
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Sortino Ratio
0.01
Beta
0.25
Alpha
-0.01
Leverage
0.34 Average
1.67 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.