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TQQQ Positional 2

Stocks · Started May 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-21.4%
Max Drawdown
22.2%
Trades
56
Win Trades
39.3%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
3.8%

About this strategy

A positional medium term strategy that trades TQQQ trying to capture the medium term momentum in Nasdaq

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20220.8-10.014.7-5.1-6.6-1.1-5.10.0-13.4
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/1/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age54 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades56
# Profitable22
% Profitable39.3%
Avg trade duration17.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.2%
drawdown periodJuly 29, 2022 - Nov 22, 2022
Cumul. Return-13.4%
Avg win$1,851
Avg loss$1,379

Ratios

W:L ratio0.87
Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Sortino Ratio-0.48
Calmar Ratio-0.60

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life87.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-21.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss49.5%
Chance of 30% account loss12.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)679
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,379
Avg Win$1,851
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,888
Sum Trade PL (winners)$40,719
Num Months Winners2
# Losers34
% Winners39.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table53

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1045.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.43
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1397

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.03
Daily leverage (max)3.09

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.16
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.78
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.23
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.84
df6
t-0.74
p0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio-1.42
Upside Potential Ratio1.32
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms6
N of observations7
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.04
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.21
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error5
t(b)1.81
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.21
Mean-0.25
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.95
df6
t-0.84
p0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio-1.53
Upside Potential Ratio1.21
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms6
N of observations7
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.04
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error5
t(b)1.86
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean-0.21
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df153
t-0.53
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio-0.95
Upside Potential Ratio6.28
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-1.58
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms110
N of observations154
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.03
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error152
t(b)5.29
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.45
Jensen alpha (a)-0.19
Mean-0.25
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.83
df153
t-0.64
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio-1.13
Upside Potential Ratio6.03
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.60
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms110
N of observations154
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.03
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error152
t(b)5.25
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.62
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.55
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.21
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.70
df130
t-0.50
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio-0.95
Upside Potential Ratio5.99
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-1.51
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.03
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.19
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)4.46
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.48
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.48
Jensen alpha (a)-0.19
Mean-0.25
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.84
df130
t-0.60
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio-1.11
Upside Potential Ratio5.75
Upside part of mean1.28
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms93
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.03
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)4.44
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.58
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.94
Median0.97
Quartile 30.99
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 30.99
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations154
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.10
Median0.12
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.14
Median0.20
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20.20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.09
Median0.15
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-450397376
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)116
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.20
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.94
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.24

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long1927Nov 30, 2022Nov 30, 2022$1,363
TQQQ long1911Nov 23, 2022Nov 23, 2022($846)
TQQQ long1921Nov 22, 2022Nov 23, 2022$1,532
TQQQ long1841Nov 15, 2022Nov 15, 2022($1,883)
TQQQ long1975Nov 11, 2022Nov 14, 2022($854)
TQQQ long2076Nov 10, 2022Nov 11, 2022$1,718
TQQQ long2185Nov 8, 2022Nov 8, 2022($1,294)
TQQQ long2265Nov 8, 2022Nov 8, 2022$1,535
TQQQ long2210Nov 2, 2022Nov 2, 2022($3,563)
TQQQ long2213Oct 28, 2022Oct 31, 2022($1,112)
TQQQ long2191Oct 25, 2022Oct 26, 2022($1,845)
TQQQ long2205Oct 24, 2022Oct 25, 2022$1,825
TQQQ long2365Oct 21, 2022Oct 24, 2022($738)
TQQQ long2431Oct 20, 2022Oct 20, 2022($1,609)
TQQQ long2612Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022($736)
TQQQ long2231Oct 3, 2022Oct 4, 2022$3,743
TQQQ long1941Sep 21, 2022Sep 21, 2022($3,033)
TQQQ long2024Sep 19, 2022Sep 20, 2022($1,300)
TQQQ long1643Sep 9, 2022Sep 12, 2022$2,739
TQQQ long1782Sep 8, 2022Sep 8, 2022($2,126)
TQQQ long1802Sep 7, 2022Sep 7, 2022$1,653
TQQQ long1734Sep 2, 2022Sep 2, 2022($1,167)
TQQQ long1511Aug 25, 2022Aug 26, 2022($1,032)
TQQQ long1559Aug 24, 2022Aug 24, 2022($925)
TQQQ long1348Aug 15, 2022Aug 16, 2022($477)
TQQQ long1390Aug 10, 2022Aug 11, 2022$2,136
TQQQ long1399Aug 8, 2022Aug 8, 2022($1,264)
TQQQ long1464Aug 4, 2022Aug 5, 2022($1,703)
TQQQ long1486Aug 3, 2022Aug 3, 2022$1,674
TQQQ long1524Aug 1, 2022Aug 1, 2022($1,011)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.