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TQQQ Short term

Stocks · Started Feb 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-10.8%
Max Drawdown
28.9%
Trades
80
Win Trades
25.0%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
12.5%

About this strategy

Trades TQQQ short term. Exposure time is about 10-15% of the overall cash market hours which means the system spends most of the time in cash. An excellent system that is built with risk management at its core and where leverage is capped by the very definition of TQQQ giving you peace of mind.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20220.20.27.39.3-2.93.5-4.0-11.5-9.24.2-3.9-8.6
20230.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.2
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/15/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age56 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades80
# Profitable20
% Profitable25.0%
Avg trade duration15.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.9%
drawdown periodMay 30, 2022 - Nov 22, 2022
Cumul. Return-9.5%
Avg win$1,331
Avg loss$482

Ratios

W:L ratio0.92
Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Sortino Ratio-0.55
Calmar Ratio-0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life73.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)4.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-10.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity31.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.5%
Chance of 20% account loss24.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated96.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)836
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)535

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$482
Avg Win$1,330
# Winners20
Sum Trade PL (losers)$28,918
Sum Trade PL (winners)$26,610
Num Months Winners7
# Losers60
% Winners25.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct77

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table56

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)956.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)15.94
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago1372

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.62
Daily leverage (max)4.77

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.10
Treynor Index-0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.34
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.94
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.00
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df9
t0.02
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.99
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms5
N of observations10
Mean of predictor-0.18
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error8
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.62
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df9
t-0.09
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio1.82
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms5
N of observations10
Mean of predictor-0.21
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error8
t(b)-0.33
p(b)0.62
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean-0.05
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.26
df224
t-0.25
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio7.29
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms184
N of observations225
Mean of predictor-0.17
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error223
t(b)5.20
p(b)0
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.07
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df224
t-0.33
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio-0.61
Upside Potential Ratio7.11
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms184
N of observations225
Mean of predictor-0.20
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error223
t(b)5.15
p(b)0
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.39
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.14
df130
t-1.52
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Sortino ratio-3.14
Upside Potential Ratio4.97
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-1.01
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion-0.39
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.72
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.57
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.61
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
Mean-0.41
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.24
df130
t-1.59
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-3.23
Upside Potential Ratio4.84
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.41
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.39
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)3.72
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.61
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.39
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.96
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-58.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations225
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.83
Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.09
Median0.15
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-306392704
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)176
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.02
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-13.00

Trading record

Placed 125 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long271Dec 23, 2022Dec 27, 2022($84)
TQQQ long1822Dec 21, 2022Dec 22, 2022($1,182)
TQQQ long3997Dec 21, 2022Dec 21, 2022($577)
TQQQ long256Dec 16, 2022Dec 19, 2022($95)
@MNQ H3long1Dec 16, 2022Dec 16, 2022$11
TQQQ long8165Dec 7, 2022Dec 14, 2022$708
TQQQ long2303Nov 30, 2022Dec 1, 2022$3,726
TQQQ long2284Nov 22, 2022Nov 25, 2022$680
TQQQ long2110Nov 15, 2022Nov 15, 2022($504)
TQQQ long2185Nov 14, 2022Nov 14, 2022($131)
TQQQ long2243Nov 11, 2022Nov 11, 2022($281)
TQQQ long2461Nov 10, 2022Nov 10, 2022($407)
TQQQ long2645Nov 8, 2022Nov 8, 2022($632)
TQQQ long2713Nov 7, 2022Nov 8, 2022$682
TQQQ long2755Nov 4, 2022Nov 4, 2022($635)
TQQQ long2297Nov 1, 2022Nov 1, 2022($878)
TQQQ long2359Oct 28, 2022Oct 28, 2022($241)
TQQQ long2362Oct 28, 2022Oct 28, 2022$12
TQQQ long2252Oct 25, 2022Oct 25, 2022($500)
TQQQ long2410Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022($232)
TQQQ long2410Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022($577)
TQQQ long2439Oct 21, 2022Oct 24, 2022($91)
TQQQ long2453Oct 20, 2022Oct 20, 2022($487)
TQQQ long2512Oct 14, 2022Oct 14, 2022($1,241)
TQQQ long2607Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022($624)
TQQQ long2259Oct 4, 2022Oct 4, 2022($395)
TQQQ long2246Sep 27, 2022Sep 27, 2022($196)
TQQQ long2276Sep 26, 2022Sep 26, 2022($652)
TQQQ long1956Sep 21, 2022Sep 21, 2022($874)
TQQQ long1979Sep 21, 2022Sep 21, 2022($2,284)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.