Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Oil Futures Day Trader

Futures · Started Feb 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.2%
Max Drawdown
39.7%
Trades
104
Win Trades
32.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
7.1%

About this strategy

Long/short day trades on oil futures - System attempts to ride the short term momentum. Tight stops employed and winners are let run until momentum exhaustion. Model account trades 3 QCL contracts, but you could follow it with 1 contract if you wish to, with a minimum capital requirement of USD 25 k. You must be psychologically prepared to see a lot of small losses and play the waiting game for the big winners. ( i.e. expect lower win-ratio, but higher profit factor ).

The beauty of the system is that the exposure time to market is very low,. It has an above average calamar ratio historically, which justifies the higher leverage employed. For the conservative ones, even a leverage of only 2x can be employed


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-4.440.312.213.8-11.31.9-9.6-13.0-10.70.00.08.8
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/9/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age56 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades104
# Profitable34
% Profitable32.7%
Avg trade duration1.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.7%
drawdown periodMay 19, 2022 - Oct 10, 2022
Cumul. Return6.1%
Avg win$3,060
Avg loss$1,384

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio0.06
Sortino Ratio0.11
Calmar Ratio0.37

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life69.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)27.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity62.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss73.0%
Chance of 20% account loss36.0%
Chance of 30% account loss8.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated95.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)913
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)720

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,384
Avg Win$3,060
# Winners34
Sum Trade PL (losers)$96,846
Sum Trade PL (winners)$104,044
Num Months Winners4
# Losers70
% Winners32.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table56

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)64.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.08
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago1449

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.36
Daily leverage (max)7.87

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.93
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.26
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.30
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df7
t0.44
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio3.31
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms4
N of observations8
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance-0.03
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error6
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.23
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.17
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df7
t0.26
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.69
Sortino ratio0.56
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms4
N of observations8
Mean of predictor-0.40
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance-0.02
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error6
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
Mean0.26
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df174
t0.50
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.01
Sortino ratio1.19
Upside Potential Ratio9.35
Upside part of mean2.03
Downside part of mean-1.77
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms127
N of observations175
Mean of predictor-0.36
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error173
t(b)1.16
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.32
Treynor index (mean / b)1.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.17
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df174
t0.35
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio8.92
Upside part of mean1.97
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms127
N of observations175
Mean of predictor-0.40
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error173
t(b)1.16
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21
Treynor index (mean / b)1.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.45
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.35
df130
t-0.96
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio-1.95
Upside Potential Ratio6.50
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-1.94
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.40
Mean of criterion-0.45
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.43
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error129
t(b)0.46
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.43
Mean-0.50
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.52
df130
t-1.08
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio-2.15
Upside Potential Ratio6.27
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-1.97
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.43
Mean of criterion-0.50
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.48
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error129
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.02
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.98
Jensen alpha (a)-0.48
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.90
Median0.99
Quartile 31.15
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.94
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations175
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.35
Quartile 10.35
Median0.35
Quartile 30.35
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-163906448
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)144
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.83
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.42
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.82

Trading record

Placed 158 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL X2long3Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022($1,464)
QCL X2long3Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022($1,494)
QCL X2long3Oct 7, 2022Oct 7, 2022$576
QCL X2long3Oct 7, 2022Oct 7, 2022($204)
QCL X2long3Oct 6, 2022Oct 6, 2022($1,494)
QCL X2long3Oct 6, 2022Oct 6, 2022($384)
QCL X2long3Oct 5, 2022Oct 5, 2022($174)
QCL X2long3Oct 5, 2022Oct 5, 2022($3,534)
QCL X2long3Oct 4, 2022Oct 4, 2022$1,716
QCL X2short3Sep 26, 2022Sep 26, 2022$2,136
QCL X2short3Sep 23, 2022Sep 23, 2022$4,326
QCL X2short3Sep 19, 2022Sep 19, 2022($429)
QCL X2short3Sep 19, 2022Sep 19, 2022($827)
QCL V2short3Sep 16, 2022Sep 16, 2022($1,314)
QCL V2short3Sep 16, 2022Sep 16, 2022($1,959)
QCL V2short3Sep 15, 2022Sep 15, 2022($1,397)
QCL V2long3Sep 14, 2022Sep 14, 2022($789)
QCL V2long3Sep 14, 2022Sep 14, 2022($1,989)
QCL V2long3Sep 13, 2022Sep 13, 2022($2,162)
QCL V2long3Sep 13, 2022Sep 13, 2022($272)
QCL V2long3Sep 13, 2022Sep 13, 2022($459)
QCL V2short3Sep 8, 2022Sep 8, 2022($1,194)
QCL V2short3Sep 7, 2022Sep 7, 2022($1,352)
QCL V2short3Sep 7, 2022Sep 7, 2022($1,622)
QCL V2short3Sep 1, 2022Sep 1, 2022$239
QCL V2short3Aug 31, 2022Aug 31, 2022$3,171
QCL V2short3Aug 30, 2022Aug 30, 2022($947)
QCL V2long3Aug 30, 2022Aug 30, 2022($924)
QCL V2short3Aug 26, 2022Aug 26, 2022($2,766)
QCL V2short3Aug 26, 2022Aug 26, 2022($2,358)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.