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NQ e-Micro Pro

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
43.3%
Max Drawdown
32.7%
Trades
193
Win Trades
51.8%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
13.1%

About this strategy

NQ e-Micro Pro is a systematic trading strategy designed to take advantage of short term price movements of the stock market. Multiple risk controls are used to determine position size and control drawdowns. The program trades Micro E-Mini Nasdaq100 futures contracts, entering and exiting the trades within hours. When there are no high probability trades, the system will be out of the markets. Because pf the number of short term trades, transaction costs will be significant. Stop orders, limit orders, or market orders may be used to enter or exit markets at the discretion of the manager.

The account will be traded at the size shown on the Hypothetical Performance chart, starting at $25,000. Larger or smaller accounts should be scaled accordingly. A majority of the equity may be used for the daily margin requirements. Scaling at greater than or less than 100% may result in performance different from the model.

QQQ Swing Pro uses a lower leveraged strategy trading long only positions of TQQQ and SQQQ ETFs. For trades based on the S&P500 index, the same algorithm is used by SP Micro Pro and SPY Options Pro.

Futures trading involves high risk. Actual results are not guaranteed and may vary from expectations.

Short Term Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-3.00.3-7.1-9.5
202228.40.5-0.531.511.42.2-3.410.5-5.0-17.6-4.011.171.1
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/11/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$17,500
Age61 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades193
# Profitable100
% Profitable51.8%
Avg trade duration8.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.7%
drawdown periodSept 02, 2022 - Dec 01, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)43.3%
Avg win$740
Avg loss$653

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio0.55
Calmar Ratio1.56

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life73.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)61.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)43.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity32.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss55.0%
Chance of 20% account loss29.0%
Chance of 30% account loss14.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated2.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)722
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)338

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$653
Avg Win$740
# Winners100
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,704
Sum Trade PL (winners)$73,974
Num Months Winners8
# Losers93
% Winners51.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table61

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)505.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.42
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago1424

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.33
Daily leverage (max)10.20

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta-0.19
Treynor Index-0.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-95.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.90
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.46
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.57
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df12
t1.60
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.41
Sortino ratio4.75
Upside Potential Ratio6.68
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms5
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.08
Mean of criterion0.57
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.02
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error11
t(b)-0.69
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
Mean0.50
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df12
t1.53
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio4.03
Upside Potential Ratio5.95
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms5
N of observations13
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.02
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error11
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.53
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df301
t1.47
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.19
Sortino ratio2.09
Upside Potential Ratio8.96
Upside part of mean2.27
Downside part of mean-1.74
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms171
N of observations302
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.02
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error300
t(b)-3.42
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.45
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.17
df301
t1.26
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.00
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio8.55
Upside part of mean2.23
Downside part of mean-1.77
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms171
N of observations302
Mean of predictor-0.12
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.02
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error300
t(b)-3.40
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.07
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df130
t-0.13
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio-0.24
Upside Potential Ratio6.65
Upside part of mean1.89
Downside part of mean-1.96
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.02
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)-1.88
p(b)0.60
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.13
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df130
t-0.26
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio-0.46
Upside Potential Ratio6.35
Upside part of mean1.86
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.14
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.02
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)-1.87
p(b)0.60
t(a)-0.32
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.95
Median1.05
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.18
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)6.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations302
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-315431072
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)90
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.72
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.70
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.70
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.64
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.18

Trading record

Placed 9 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ Z2short5Nov 30, 2022Dec 5, 2022($2,185)
@MNQ Z2short5Nov 30, 2022Nov 30, 2022$378
@MNQ Z2short5Nov 29, 2022Nov 29, 2022$413
@MNQ Z2long5Nov 25, 2022Nov 25, 2022$23
@MNQ Z2long5Nov 23, 2022Nov 23, 2022$460
@MNQ Z2short6Nov 21, 2022Nov 22, 2022$258
@MNQ Z2long5Nov 16, 2022Nov 16, 2022($557)
TQQQ long1400Nov 16, 2022Nov 16, 2022($19)
@MNQ Z2long4Nov 15, 2022Nov 15, 2022$131
@MNQ Z2long4Nov 14, 2022Nov 14, 2022$436
@MNQ Z2short4Nov 9, 2022Nov 9, 2022$924
@MNQ Z2long5Nov 8, 2022Nov 8, 2022$680
@MNQ Z2short5Nov 4, 2022Nov 7, 2022($677)
@MNQ Z2short6Nov 4, 2022Nov 4, 2022$2,040
@MNQ Z2short5Nov 1, 2022Nov 2, 2022$533
@MNQ Z2long5Nov 1, 2022Nov 1, 2022($680)
@MNQ Z2short7Oct 28, 2022Oct 28, 2022($4,922)
@MNQ Z2short6Oct 27, 2022Oct 27, 2022$2,241
@MNQ Z2short4Oct 27, 2022Oct 27, 2022$200
@MNQ Z2long3Oct 26, 2022Oct 26, 2022($465)
@MNQ Z2long4Oct 25, 2022Oct 26, 2022$731
@MNQ Z2long3Oct 24, 2022Oct 25, 2022$420
@MNQ Z2short4Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022($2,812)
@MNQ Z2long7Oct 18, 2022Oct 19, 2022($847)
@MNQ Z2short5Oct 14, 2022Oct 17, 2022($601)
@MNQ Z2short3Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022($1,147)
@MNQ Z2short5Oct 11, 2022Oct 13, 2022$2,973
@MNQ Z2short1Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022($160)
@MNQ Z2short2Oct 10, 2022Oct 10, 2022$127
@MNQ Z2long3Oct 6, 2022Oct 6, 2022($189)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.